CW: Final Predictions For 'Nikita' & 'The Carrie Diaries'

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 7th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2013 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

    Robert Bill
Carrie Diaries, The CW 15% 10%
Nikita CW 85% 100%

5/9 Update: Nikita and The Carrie Diaries have both been renewed.
In what's a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final CW predictions. Our one significant difference that existed towards the end of the season, the fate of Beauty & The Beast, having been resolved a few weeks ago. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult* canceled 0.35
90210 canceled 0.49
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.57
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries* :cry: :cry: 0.73
Hart Of Dixie renewed 0.89
Beauty And The Beast renewed 0.93
Supernatural renewed 1.52
Arrow renewed 1.60
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.90

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.


  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

  • Anna Bones Clarkwood

    So, “no” was not 100% like Dan was sure of.

    I’m not going to wiki it but did Veronica Mars soley air on CW?

    If not, then maybe Dan meant shows that only aired on CW, which namely includes TVD but not SPN/Smallville. I don’t follow CW well enough to list more.

    If he is mistaken then, yep Dan (& Tom, IIRC) are wrong & this is clearly a statistical anomaly. And, thus, Nikita could end this season if they just can’t get a syndication deal and don’t want a mostly .2 with some .1’s in the 4th season in the hopes of a deal & will trade a one and done .3-.4 for that scenario.

  • Bizarro

    Also Veronica Mars is being syndicated on Soapnet.

  • F.R.

    @Anna Bones Clarkwood, technically it wasn’t CW-only. It premiered in 2004 back when UPN/WB were two different networks (but produced by Warner Bros. like most CW shows). The third and final season was on The CW after the merge, and then it got cancelled. There are numerous other examples of shows cancelled after three seasons, but most of them are premium cable shows with 10-12 episode seasons and not full seasons.

  • Drew

    I have watched several seasons of Supernatural but can’t believe the show has lasted this long. It’s pretty much the same story week after week, year after year. There is no way the show would have survived this many years if it was on a major network. Give Jensen and Jared credit. They have had steady work for more years than most TV actors could dream of.

  • F.R.

    “It’s pretty much the same story week after week, year after year.”

    Pick any procedural CBS crime drama (CSI, Mentalist, NCIS, Criminal Minds…), and you could basically say the same.

  • Tom

    @ Bones

    The CW launched in September 2006. “Veronica Mars” was originally a WB property that went off the air in May 2007. So, all that’s ancient history. Candidly, I don’t care what happened before Mr. Pedowitz took over at the CW. He’s the one who signs the checks and I’m betting he’ll be counting every nickel.

  • Restless

    Nah Veronica Mars was originally on UPN.

    However I forgot about The Game, which was an original CW show and canceled by CW after 3 seasons (64 episodes) in 2009, because it was picked up and is still airing new episodes on BET now.

  • Sonicphoto

    All CW shows have dropped during this month also, so it was expected for Nikita to eventually drop like all CW shows. Yet, CW caused this problem by moving the show to fridays, when it was with vampire diaries, it had a 0.7 and better than beauty and the beast. So yeah, beauty and the beast will probably meet the same faith of Nikita because The Originals will likely air after vampire diaries.

    Has a Nikita fan, all I want is a final closing season, don’t care how long it is, I just want the story to have a good ending and that’s it. It was never meant to be a long show anyway.

  • Nick

    My odds-

    The Carrie Diaries: 10%
    Nikita: 95%

    Not very different.

  • JJA

    It is sad that this all has to come down to Nikita and TCD. These two shows are two of the CW’s best quality shows.

    TCD is better than HOD and BATB, and it can hold its own against the VD.

    As for Nikita, you can clearly tell just how well acted and written it is. It’s every bit as good as Arrow and VD. Also, Supernatural may have been better during seasons 1-5, but Nikita is at least as good as Supernatural’s seasons 6-8.

  • omabin

    – Nikita: 100%
    – The Carrie Diaries: 30%

  • Restless

    Okay I wasted my time checking. CW’s only premiered 27 total shows, of those ten shows have made it to a season two (counting Arrow and Beauty and the Beast). Two full season shows include The Game, Gossip Girl, 90210, The Vampire Dairies, Nikita and Hart of Dixie. Life Unexpected and Reaper were canceled after two short seasons. Everything else has been canceled after one season.

  • Larry Micklevitz

    I really don’t understand viewership these days . . . . Nikita is a great action show with good acting and attractive cast members . . .What’s not to like ? . . ..The Carrie Diaries was cute as hell . . .I Luved that little show !. . Yet people watch a show like “Heart of Dixie” over “TCD” . . .Come on seriously ! That just confuses the Heck out of me”. . . . . . . . . . . . . Well at least people are getting it right with Super Natural( Needs more Classic Rock like the early shows/seasons) The Vampire Diaries, & the Arrow.These are all solid show and Nikita should have viewership right in the same category . . .I just don’t get that ? .? . ? . ? . ? .
    At least please keep getting it right with the solid 4 shows SuperNatural ,The Vampire Diaries, & the Arrow. For Gods sake please don’t go dick’in around with the time schedule the shows are listed to be viewed at . . .Don’t try to compete with any other Networks . . . that always works out badly. Just leave well enough alone Please . . . .Thanks for your time, Lar M

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Nikita will get a 22-episode renewal. Previous rumor was 13 episodes, current rumor is 22 episodes. That’s a rumor one way, and a rumor the other.

    In reality, it’s all down to the license fee haggling, if that.

    Now we have morons predicting Nikita will flop in syndication. Anything to justify their trolling… :-)

    TCD is as dead as it ever was.

    BATB will debut at .5-.7 next season and fall to .3-4 by end of its run. It will not get a syndication season three renewal.

  • Penny

    === Renewed ===
    The Carrie Diaries

    === Cancelled ===

  • Charlie

    Nikita 100%


    is that a joke?

    good god if it does it will be it’s final season how can they continue a show with such low ratings?

    @Richard the only troll is you,you smack our shows yet you get butt hurt when something bad is said about Crapkita how does that work out?

  • Charlie

    10-13 episodes is enough for Nikita next season should be it’s last

    i don’t see no syndication happening

  • Alan

    If nobody watches Nikita live, who would want to have it on their network with re-runs? Networks often buy syndicated shows because they were popular when they aired for the first time, and Nikita is not syndication material.

  • Anie

    Hope Nikita gets renewed! Even if it’ll be the last season, 13 or 22 episodes, I’ll take it. Then I’ll never watch anything on The CW ever again.

  • HV

    Here are my predictions (Note that I do not believe in giving 0% or 100%)

    The Carrie Diaries 30%
    If ANTM moves to summer, The CW would be premiring four new shows in the fall, unless The Carrie Diaries is renewed. Also, it could be renewed as a midseason replacement. Or, it can get canceled, which I am going with.
    Nikita 90%
    It’s worrying that this show hasn’t been renewed yet, but it should get renewed. It’s almost to syndication!

    Biggest Difference: The Carrie Diaries
    You say it has a 10% chance at renewal, but I’m going with a higher 30%.
    Disagreements: None

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