CW: Final Predictions For 'Nikita' & 'The Carrie Diaries'

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 7th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2013 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

    Robert Bill
Carrie Diaries, The CW 15% 10%
Nikita CW 85% 100%

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5/9 Update: Nikita and The Carrie Diaries have both been renewed.
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In what's a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final CW predictions. Our one significant difference that existed towards the end of the season, the fate of Beauty & The Beast, having been resolved a few weeks ago. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult* canceled 0.35
90210 canceled 0.49
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.57
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries* :cry: :cry: 0.73
Hart Of Dixie renewed 0.89
Beauty And The Beast renewed 0.93
Supernatural renewed 1.52
Arrow renewed 1.60
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.90

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Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

 
  • Tom

    @ Hack

    I believe that Nikita will get 22 more episodes and stay on Friday where ratings matter less anyway. However, you need to remember that the CW tried to bring back the hideous LA Complex even after the show was cancelled by its Canadian network. That’s because the series was dirt cheap to produce and sold well online. So, when it comes to money, these guys know no shame.

    Nikita was renewed even after it finished out season 2 with six consecutive 0.4 demos and an average of 0.5 for the entire season. As I noted in before, ratings seem to become less and less of an issue for the CW the closer one of its shows gets to syndication. So, I doubt if ratings will necessarily be be enough by themselves to kill off B&B unless that show’s ratings plummet to a 0.3 or less and that seems unlikely. The motive for cancellation has to be economic and B&B is clearly making money for the CW. That’s why I was hoping B&B would be cancelled after this season. The show won’t get better and the CW always has the option of exiling it to Fridays in order to accumulate more episodes. So, getting rid of B&B after two seasons will be harder than killing crabgrass.

  • Dahne

    @reallypeople – “Do not put any original programming on Friday. None. Also, do not put reruns on Friday, either. Instead, make every week a new original sci-fi/horror film using the already on roster CW talent. For example, a horror film starring Bilson and Padalecki.”

    This is virtually impossible. Since all these stars are currently working on the CW, that would mean that they would have to write and shoot all of these movies this summer. There is no way that could happen on such short notice. Plus Jared Padalecki is looking for more time off to be with his son, not less. Neither Supernatural star would be up for this.

  • Bitter Ringer Fan

    @Nikki I smell a bitter secret circle fan!!!! hahaha

  • Nerdbot

    I’m a fan of Nikita, but I’m not sure I’d like 22 more episodes. The last couple look like they’re ending the whole story. 13 more episodes would work better for wrapping up everything than a full season. Otherwise, it will be similar to what Fox did with Prison Break, with the Company plot in season 4. Also, they cannot really keep Amanda alive forever and it wouldn’t be a good idea to introduce a new villain at this point.

  • getmilk

    I agree Nerdbot. As much as I love the show, it’s doing terrible even with the new time slot. I think the CW wants to renew this show just so they can give it a proper ending.

    I’d much prefer an action packed shorten season then a full season renewal with a bunch of filler episodes which we have had this season.

  • Doc

    Rooting for Nikita. Seems like, of the shows on the bubble, it has lots of potential areas for the writers to explore. Love Amanda as a villain.

    I could see the cardinal 6, the remaining central nucleus of “good guys” being absorbed into private military, a JSOC command, black ops group. Or a mission impossible, type group. I still watch the original MI every night. (Thank you ME tv)

    The decision monkeys for CW, ought to ask themselves one important question if they are thinking of cancelling Nikita, even though their numbers have dipped, what can you possibly air that will do better? And if you have better programming on the shelf, what are you waiting for?

  • Din

    Actually last week episode the e 20 was 0.5 and 1.6 mill
    And as final guesses of NIKITA RENEWAL chances:
    Robert: 85% and Bill:100%

    So is going to renewal..for sure ..NO question ask..
    Every single NIKITA’s fans screaming for season 4

  • reallypeople

    @Dahne

    It’s very possible. And films have been filmed and completed in much less time. As for the stars I mentioned in my example, I was just further illustrating my point. I could have picked any two to sub in. As for the stars having a “choice” if to participate or not…the CW could make it very “uncomfortable” if they wanted after a refusal. But that’s TV politics and OT. Not that it matters, it won’t happen, anyway. And it has nothing to do with the plausibility of the timeline I put forth.

  • MJDB

    My Oddsmakers:

    The Carrie Diaries-43%
    Nikita-80%

  • jbhat

    Wish Nikita could of maintained the 0.5 it had got a couple times when it moved to 8pm. Even though I am a diehard fan of the show, this season has left me overall feeling a little disappointed. Even though I know there was a lot of good episodes, there were some I was just not feeling. Through the first 2 seasons, Birkhoff, Alex and Percy, yea Percy, were my favorite characters on the show. There was always a level of mystery surrounding Percy. He was very unpredictable. You never knew what he had up his sleeve. He was the ultimate bad guy to me. At times this season it seemed that something was missing. Not saying that it was Percy, but something. But haven said all that, I do still hope for renewal. And if by chance that Nikita is renewed with no strings attached, like a shortened final season, which does seem unlikely at this point, the writers will have to take this show in a new direction. Fingers crossed for Nikki and the gang.

  • thesnowleopard

    I think Nikita’s chances now rest entirely on how badly the network (and especially the studio) wants that syndication number. But its ratings are so awful that a renewal is likely also to go hand in hand with a painfully slashed budget and some pretty creative scheduling. For a start, I’d be unsurprised if the show is moved to 9pm on Fridays. Yes, it will tank, but it’s already tanking, so who cares? For another, it may end up aired at least partly in the summer or in a holiday burnoff, where its dismal ratings won’t look quite so dismal. And for a third, it may not air out all of its season on TV, depending on how badly the ratings next season crash. Just because they make it for syndication, doesn’t mean it will all air before then.

    A bloodbath among the regular cast is also entirely possible to bring down costs next season.

    That said, I don’t think a renewal is 100% certain. Likely, due to the syndication factor? Yes. But I think it’s really testing network patience on that score.

  • Dan

    The studio very much wants a syndication deal if its only 1 season away.

    FOX made it happen with garbage Raising Hope numbers.

    CBS is making it happen with So So Hawaii 5-0 and Blue Bloods ratings

    CW will make it happen with Nikita.

  • Dan W

    I’m guessing that Nikita will get a 13 episode final season. Also, I still believe The Carrie Diaries will be renewed for 13 episodes a la Life Unexpected. Call me crazy but that’s what I think is going to happen! I do think it’s strange that the official TCD facebook page is still being updated regularly (same with with The New Normal’s facebook page)…what would be the reason for continuing to update almost daily? Maybe someone at The CW is just bored haha…we shall see though.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Tom: I agree it’s hard to predict what the CW will do due to their utter stupidity. Even if BATB is profitable this season – and I think it was due to the initial high international license fee – it’s clear that it will not remain so for long. So it’s a case of desperation to renew it. And I do think it will hit .3 or at least .4 in season two. It is possible it will do better, but I doubt it.

    Having looked at the pilots they were considering, most are either ripoffs of current or recent movies or random garbage. Only two or three actually look like they have a shot (other than The Originals). So having eight pilots, they were reduced to picking maybe three at most. I should have given that more weight in my prediction re BATB.

    Snowleopard: As usual, all you’re doing is mouthing possibilities as if they were certainties. As before, just shut up and wait for the announcements.

  • Restless

    @Richard Steven Hack
    And maybe you should shut up and wait for season 2 ratings of Beauty and the Beast before predicting it’ll be canceled? :)
    Besides, newsflash, .7-.4 would be the same numbers Hart of Dixie and Nikita s2 pulled.

  • Melanie

    Nikita 95% (22 episodes)
    Carrie 5% (goes to webisode format)

  • Natalie

    Vampire diaries and supernatural had to be renewed, its there best and most popular shows by a clear mile. Apart from that i am really glad that they renewed hart of dixie. I dont get why people dont think its good. I really love it. I ve seen a little bit of arrow and it looks pretty good so i can see why they renewed that. Beauty and the beast doesnt look that good to me but maybe its better than it appears. I watched a few episodes of the carrie diaries but found that i seemed to tune out a bit while watching it. There is something kinda good about it and the music is pretty great. But i see it getting cancelled. Im glad. 90210 is finishing and not getting dragged out. And gossip girl had to go after a terrible 5th season. I am please that they gave it a small final season and didnt just leave it as it was. But to be honest the 6th season was pretty bad too. I just dont know whathappened with the writing for gossip girl. The storylines just wrecked the overall story in my opinion.

  • serendipity’s last stand

    Hum I think it will get a short season and be replaced with a pilot midseason to test the waters for an extra pilot cw needs its pilots to work this season and I think mid season replacments will happen as they look for a new hit.

  • Eren

    Monday:
    08.00pm Oxygen (22 episodes)
    09.00pm Blink (22 episodes)

    Tuesday:
    08.00pm The Hundred (22 episodes)
    09.00pm The Tomorrow People (22 episodes)

    Wednesday:
    08.00pm Arrow (22 episodes)
    09.00pm Supernatural (22 episodes)

    Thursday:
    08.00pm The Vampire Diaries (22 episodes)
    09.00pm The Originals (22 episodes)

    Friday:
    08.00pm Beauty and the Beast (18 episodes)
    09.00pm Nikita (13 episodes)

    Midseason:
    The Selection (13 episodes)
    Company Town (13 episodes)
    America’s Next Top Model (13 episodes)

  • Justin

    Nikita will absolutely be renewed for another season. It’s only really a matter of the episode order and what The CW and WB finalize in the end. Like discussed by the other people in the comments, there are many rumours about episode numbers and the WB forcing a Nikita renewal for their pilot(s) pick-up floating around. It’s all very speculative but we can all agree that out of the two, Nikita is coming back.

    The only wildcard is TCD. I’m being realistic in expectations and I expect to see the tweet “Nikita renewed, Carrie Diaries cancelled” this week. A 13 episode first season that floated around a .4-.5; not really positive. However, its online play keeps getting some buzz so anything could happen. The ONLY way I could see it getting renewed is because (1) The CW wants to still pull in money from its advertisers and online play, especially now that The CW launched the XBOX app and (2) they want the media/ratings pull of revealing the character backstories of Stanford, Charlotte, Samantha and Miranda.

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