CW: Final Predictions For 'Nikita' & 'The Carrie Diaries'

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 7th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2013 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

    Robert Bill
Carrie Diaries, The CW 15% 10%
Nikita CW 85% 100%

5/9 Update: Nikita and The Carrie Diaries have both been renewed.
In what's a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final CW predictions. Our one significant difference that existed towards the end of the season, the fate of Beauty & The Beast, having been resolved a few weeks ago. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult* canceled 0.35
90210 canceled 0.49
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.57
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries* :cry: :cry: 0.73
Hart Of Dixie renewed 0.89
Beauty And The Beast renewed 0.93
Supernatural renewed 1.52
Arrow renewed 1.60
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.90

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.


  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

  • Jeff

    CW will renew nikita they tried airing a new show friday mid season this year and it failed fridays should just be series that will be syndicated like Nikita and Hart of Dixie which are 1 or 2 season away from syndication with a good fan following but not necessarily hits until CW can effectively redevelop the network

  • Jonathan

    They could renew both for 13 eps! That would be nice.

  • Restless

    You forgot Hart of Dixie.

    I originally thought CW wouldn’t have a night with all new series and no returning, but I’ve changed my mind. Turns out they’ve done it before, and it technically worked (90210), so no reason they couldn’t do it again.

  • frank5869

    What a mafia as usual… !
    They cancelled The Secret Circle which was based on the books from the same author of The Vampire Diaries and they keep renewing the atrocious Nikita reboot tv show which is an absolute shame.
    The Nielsen ratings stats numbers are a mafia joke. Network and studios managers in the show biz should 90% be jailed by FBI for their crimes.

  • Holly

    Why would the mafia care about shows on The CW?

  • SarahNichole


    TVD was a hit, TSC was failing. Being based off series’ by the same author doesn’t mean anything at all. If TSC wasn’t so expensive to make, it’d probably have come back, but the boring direction the show took in the second half of the season certainly didn’t help its chances.

  • serendipity’s last stand

    I still think cw will pick up more pilots this year than they usually do becasuse they need to churn out a new hit

  • Spence

    I think that The Carrie Diaries will be cancelled and Nikita will be renewed for a shortened final season.

    I expect that this will The CW’s schedule for the 2013-2014 season:

    8pm: Reign (13 eps) [fall]/The Selection (13 eps) [mid-season]
    9pm: Hart of Dixie (22 eps)

    8pm: The 100 (13 eps)
    9pm: Supernatural (23 eps, optional full season order)

    8pm: Arrow (23 eps)
    9pm: The Tomorrow People (13 eps, optional full season order)

    8pm: The Vampire Diaries (22 eps)
    9pm: The Originals (13 eps, optional full season order)

    8pm: Nikita (6 – 13 eps) [repeats of new dramas will air after Nikita ends]
    9pm: Beauty and the Beast (22 eps)

    Oxygen (13 eps) [mid-season, could replace a new drama that receives an early cancellation. If this isn’t the case, then hold it for the summer]

  • Spence

    The optional full season order was meant for The 100, not for Supernatural. Sorry!

  • Sixela

    On the topic of Nikita: I was wondering, do we have any valid data on how shows that were low-rated in their original run do in syndication?

    The thing is, syndication will likely save Nikita from being cancelled due to low ratings, but that’s assuming the latter doesn’t affect the former in any way. Some have argued “what network would want to buy a show that gets 0.3’s for syndication?”. Therefore I ask, is there empirical data to back the claim that low-rated shows typically do just as badly when syndicated? Also, there’s the issue of how much a network is willing to pay for Nikita even if it does buy it. If they sell the show dirt cheap, how lucrative for The WB can a syndication deal be?

    I can see why Nikita’s poor performance on The CW since about halfway through Season 2 might not necessarily indicate a failure in syndication. It’s always been a poor fit on the network, and syndicating it on a channel more associated with action thrillers and the like could draw a sizable audience that wouldn’t touch The CW with a five-foot pole. However, there’s also the issue that Nikita is mostly serialized, and I take it serialized shows typically don’t perform well in syndication.

    I’ll end with a disclaimer: I’m a huge Nikita fan, so the last thing I’m trying to do in this comment is argue that the show should be cancelled because syndication won’t return the investment in it. I was just wondering if anyone can shed light on the issue.

  • Duarte

    CW Schedule

    – Hart of Dixie
    – NEW Reign

    – Beauty and the Beast
    – NEW The Selection

    – Arrow
    – Supernatural (Last Season)

    – The Vampire Diaries
    – NEW The Originals

    – Nikita
    – The Carrie Diaries

  • Dave

    My prediction:

    Nikita will be strutting her way to a fourth Season and Syndication :D

    Carrie Bradshaw will be strutting her way to the cancellation bear :D :D

  • Samuel

    CW Schedule:

    – The Selection (13 episodes, possible full season order)
    – Hart of Dixie

    – Supernatural
    – Oxygen (13 episodes)/The Carrie Diaries (13 episodes mid-season)

    – Arrow
    – The Tomorrow People (13 episodes, possible full season order)

    – The Vampire Diaries
    – The Originals (13 episodes, possible full season order)

    – Nikita (13 episode final season)/Repeats of struggling shows mid-season.
    – Beauty & The Beast (final season).

  • Alan

    TCD should be renewed and put back in mid-season, or replace Nikita when it ends, seriously.

  • Holly Quixote


    TCD should be renewed and put back in mid-season, or replace Nikita when it ends, seriously.

    Wow…just Wow…

  • thesnowleopard

    @Richard Steven Hack
    I look forward to the announcement of Nikita’s fate regarding either its cancellation or renewal for a fourth (and almost certainly final) season. Experience with shows like Chuck and Fringe indicates that overinvested whackjobs like yourself drift off to other concerns once your beloved show’s fate is finally sealed. Thus, once the news it out either way, these CW threads will be a bit quieter–at least, until you find another show on the network to get overinvested and aggressively hostile about.

  • Ember

    PLOT TWIST: nikita and tcd BOTH get renewed(idc how many episodes each series gets) because the CW is too cheap and too stupid.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    thesnowleopard: And I look forward to your drifting off to constantly negatively comment on some show you don’t even watch just to be trolling.

    Except of course you won’t. If Nikita is renewed at all, you’ll be here for another year just carping and bitching and moaning. You won’t stop bitching like the bitch you are until Nikita is finally done.

    And then I suppose you’ll pick another show to do the same.

    You are one main reason I intend to limit my participation on this site going forward. The site is being taken over by lames like you who have nothing constructive to contribute except bitchy remarks.

  • Anthony

    I like TCD’s enough to give it a second season. No it is not Sex and the City but it is not supposed to be. The CW made a stupid move in the first place making it but the channel needs at least one teen drama. Nikita will not work in syndication when their is a far superior version of it that already exists.

  • Tom

    “You are one main reason I intend to limit my participation on this site going forward.”

    C’mon, @ Hack, man up!!!

    Next season promises all kinds of new adventures. Taunting adolescent Beastlings who are too dimwitted to believe that the show’s PCA award didn’t matter. Reading my putdowns of Nina Lisandrello, the scariest looking actress on television. Trashing the inevitable flops that the CW will debut in October. Laughing at the foreign B&B fans for incessantly being in denial. So, work with me! It’ll be fun.

    As a gesture of good faith, here’s a Nina joke:

    Question: Why is holding a Nina look-a-like contest the best idea to get a lot of people to attend your party?

    Answer: Because both men and women can enter.

    Don’t leave us @ Hack.

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