CW: Final Predictions For 'Nikita' & 'The Carrie Diaries'

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 7th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2013 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

    Robert Bill
Carrie Diaries, The CW 15% 10%
Nikita CW 85% 100%

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5/9 Update: Nikita and The Carrie Diaries have both been renewed.
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In what's a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final CW predictions. Our one significant difference that existed towards the end of the season, the fate of Beauty & The Beast, having been resolved a few weeks ago. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult* canceled 0.35
90210 canceled 0.49
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.57
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries* :cry: :cry: 0.73
Hart Of Dixie renewed 0.89
Beauty And The Beast renewed 0.93
Supernatural renewed 1.52
Arrow renewed 1.60
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.90

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Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

 
  • Kavyn

    Nikita getting cancelled this year would be just as shocking as Nikita getting renewed last year. So I mean… It’s possible. But I do think it will get a full final season, especially considering they’ve got nothing to replace it with and WB probably wants their 88 episodes.

  • Rachel

    We should be finding out what pilots the CW picked up any day now. I’m think Tomorrow People, Reign and the 100 are safe bets.

  • Rachel

    IF the CW picks a 5th it’ll be Oxygen.

  • Dan W

    Wondering if the CW will renew Nikita for 13 episodes in the fall and then have The Carrie Diaries held for 13 episodes midseason. I guess it just depends if online viewing is truly a money making factor. It’s a given that at least one new drama will fail in the fall so they will need something to replace it with (also if Nikita is only getting 13 episodes, something will need to replace it). Do you chance a new show that could fail or do you air TCD which did not have great ratings, but will not need much promotion and supposedly does so well online? I think it’s a risk either way because a new replacement drama (in place of TCD spackle) could not only achieve bad ratings (a la TCD) but it could be a disaster in online sale as well.

  • Sarah

    Nikita est une série super elle ne mérite pas d’être annuler, il devrait vraiment y avoir une saison 4 même s’il n’y a que 10 ou 13 épisodes c’est pas grave, la série c’est battue jusqu’ici alors je pense pas qu’une petite saison 4 poserait problème bien au contraire.*

  • Jen

    Just as long as they pick up The Selection, I’ll be happy. That’s the one I really want. Anything else is just a bonus.

  • Dave

    “You are one main reason I intend to limit my participation on this site going forward. The site is being taken over by lames like you who have nothing constructive to contribute except bitchy remarks.”

    Amen my friend! :D

    Oh and please don’t go :(

    I actually love it when you duke it out with the two dukes of hazard thsnowleopard and John A. It’s bloody HILARIOUS :D

  • Dave

    ^^

    Oh and Brandy too! How could I forget about her?

  • badboy

    Nikita renewed for 13 Episodes. TCD cancelled. It might have a slim chance for a 13 Episode renewal with low budget if the CW got a look on all it’s new pilots and didn’t find them convincing.

  • Chris

    8:00 9:00
    Monday: Beauty and the Beast Hart of Dixie
    Tuesday: The Hundred Supernatural/Oxygen (Midseason at 9PM)
    Wednesday: Arrow Tomorrow People
    Thursday: The Vampire Diaries The Originals/Reign (Midseason at 9PM)
    Friday: Nikita (Repeats)
    (The CW Proposed schedule, if they decide to keep The Originals after The Vampire Dairies)

    8:00 9:00
    Monday: Beauty and the Beast Hart of Dixie
    Tuesday: The Originals Supernatural/The Hundred (Midseason at 9PM)
    Wednesday: Arrow Tomorrow People
    Thursday: The Vampire Diaries Oxygen/Reign (Midseason at 9PM)
    Friday: Nikita (Repeats)

    (The CW if they decide to anchor Tuesday night with The Originals and have three solid anchor night’s to help stabilize and grow viewership throughout the week. Beauty and The Beast have shown to hold around a .7 in the 18-49 demo. This would stabilize Monday with a .6 at least in the demo. The CW would use the current roster of hit show’s Arrow and The Vampire Diaries to launch new series that could be used later on to anchor Monday or other days in the future.

    8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30
    Monday: The Originals Supernatural/ The Hundred (Midseason at 9PM)
    Tuesday (Big Bang Theory Encore) (SUPER CLYDE) (Two Girls Broke Encore) To My Assistant

    Wednesday Arrow Tomorrow People
    Thursday The Vampire Diaries Oxygen/Reign (Midseason at 9PM)
    Friday Nikita/Beauty and the Beast (Midseason at 9PM) Hart of Dixie

    (The CW should utilize their corporate owners CBS Corp. and Warner Bro’s Entertainment to help to enhance viewership on the network. By using encore first run episodes of CBS hit show The Big Bang Theory and Two Girls Broke on The CW, Tuesday would be used to help launch To My Assistant, which is produced by Warner Bro’s Television. To My Assistant, is primed to be shopped to the CW, as NBC just passed on the pilot. If CBS declines to pick up Super Clyde, The CW should help to solidify a return to comedy, which tend to repeat better and help stabilize year-round viewership. Super Clyde is produced by CBS Television Studios. To My Assistant and Super Clyde are produced by the network’s respected owner’s enabling the network to continue to sell network shows to Hulu and Netflix.
    The Big Bang Theory and Two Girl’s Broke are both produced by Warner Bro’s Television and both air on CBS. The syndication right’s for both shows are held by TBS, a division of Turner Network’s, owned by Time Warner. Creating an encore on The CW would be very easy as both parties have complete control over the right to both shows. The Comedy block would be used to grow viewership throughout the week for The CW and grow two original comedies, helping to enable The CW to make a smooth transition back into comedy. CBS’s also protest’s itself as both show’s encores will air at least 1 week following the original airing on CBS, helping to keep Live+3 Day’s, which dictates advertising rates and live+7 day. The show’s will help to bring a larger audience to The CW and help to cross-promote CBS’s helping to bring a younger audience to CBS. The synergy will also enable The CW to broaden viewership, while saving money, and helping to grow show’s for both respected network partners.

  • Scott

    What would be great is if Nikita gets renewed for a full season and gets Arrow as a lead-in; for the first time in its existence, the show would have a non-Friday time slot and a lead-in worth mentioning. Earlier this season, when Nikita aired at 9:00 and had Another Top Model (a show that no fan of Nikita would watch) as a lead in, it was completely understandable for the ratings to suffer. When it was moved to 8:00 p.m., it had mostly .4s. Arrow gets much better ratings because of the DC comics connection, but Nikita would appeal to precisely the same audience.

  • John A

    Since CBS own half the cw Maybe CW will cancel Nikita and CBS might air it for a final season saturday at 8pm? It sounds crazy but you never know.

  • John A

    @Scott Please Nikita had TVD as its lead in season 1 but you ignore that. They wont waste another good slot on that loser. Arrow and SPN do great together.

  • Restless

    @Richard Steven Hack
    You have zero right to call someone a bitch just because they have a differing opinion to you. Stop with the name calling. You guys are taking everything way too personally. I don’t know what your issues are, but you have always been one of those posters that constantly drag down conversations by attacking other posters like a schoolyard bully. So yeah, go. Take snowleopard and everyone else with you who can’t hold a conversation without insulting the other person. Hope you get banned.

  • Rachel

    @Richard Steven Hack called someone a bitch? FFS. Put a muzzle on it dude. You clearly have no life outside of this site which is why you resort to these personal attacks. Does it make you feel superior? Grow up.

  • thesnowleopard

    @Richard Steven Hack

    Do you promise?

  • JJA

    According to Deadline, “Tomorrow People, The 100, Reign and Oxygen still look promising to join recently picked up Vampire Diaries spinoff The Originals, while The Selection 2.0 is fading.”

    As for the odds of renewal, my predictions:

    Nikita (partial season) 65%
    Nikita (full season) 50%
    TCD (partial season) 45%
    TCD (full season) 0%

  • JJ

    I don’t think the CW would be so quick to move BATB to Friday when Mondays have been pretty weak this season. Oh Sit, GG, 90210 and TCD have only rated between 0.3-0.5 all season long. If the CW could schedule HoD and BATB on Mondays and those series stay consistant between 0.5-0.6 than that could atleast stabilize the night and be up from last season.

  • rose

    RENEW THE CARRIE DIARIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • rose

    THE CARRIE DIARIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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