CW: Final Predictions For 'Nikita' & 'The Carrie Diaries'

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 7th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2013 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

    Robert Bill
Carrie Diaries, The CW 15% 10%
Nikita CW 85% 100%

5/9 Update: Nikita and The Carrie Diaries have both been renewed.
In what's a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final CW predictions. Our one significant difference that existed towards the end of the season, the fate of Beauty & The Beast, having been resolved a few weeks ago. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult* canceled 0.35
90210 canceled 0.49
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.57
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries* :cry: :cry: 0.73
Hart Of Dixie renewed 0.89
Beauty And The Beast renewed 0.93
Supernatural renewed 1.52
Arrow renewed 1.60
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.90

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.


  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

  • Lisa

    @ Richard Steven Hack, if you are tacky and rude enough to call another poster a “bitch,” I hope you leave for good. There is no excuse for that kind of behavior.

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Lisa: She acts like one, she gets called one. It’s that simple.

  • tina

    NIKITA!!!!!!!!!-100% :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :)

  • Richard Steven Hack

    Tom: I said I’d limit my participation, not go entirely – although I might. I do spend more time here than I should given my other requirements.

    It’s just that there are so many trolls here – especially concerning the CW, which is where most of the shows I watch are – that it’s hard to keep up with all the malicious and stupid remarks being made. Ignoring them doesn’t make them go away, either.

    I really can’t wait to see BATB collapse next season and get canceled, though. :-)

    As for Nina, frankly I don’t find her that unattractive – although she’s hardly one of the better looking actresses in the biz. She certainly looks and sounds more like a New York female cop than the beauty contest winner Kristin. :-) I suspect she’s the better actress, too, since she isn’t getting work based on her looks. :-)

  • Dan W

    Deadline is reporting Tomorrow People and The Hundred order to series for the CW…with The Originals, that makes three new shows. Wondered what else they will pick up/what will happen with Nikita and The Carrie Diaries.

  • Ember

    lmao @hack please don’t go I wanna see your posts here for when/if BATB does collapse. Even if it doesn’t, xD

  • Matthew Chapman

    In the most surprising news of the season so far, Both Nikita and The Carrie Diaries have both been renewed.

  • MFitz

    Wrong Idiots guessers Carrie Renewed LMFAO at you know it alls

  • Melanie

    Wow — Carrie Diaries has been picked up?

    There must be several series that are only getting a planned 13 episodes — CW has 12 series now. TVD, Arrow, SPN, HOD, BATB, Nikita, TCD, Originals, Tomorrow People, Reign, The 100 and Oxygen plus ANTM.

  • no one

    your all wrong the both got renewed =D happy days i like both

  • no one

    I also would like charmed back =D

  • Davodd

    Looks like both got renewed.

  • jbhat

    Looks like only 6 episodes for Nikita.

  • D

    Monday: Reign/Hart of Dixie
    Tuesday: Oxygen/Supernatural
    Wednesday: Arrow/The 100
    Thursday: The Vampire Diaries/The Originals
    Friday: Beauty and the Beast/Nikita (fall) and Burnoff or Struggling shows’ repeats (midseason)

    Midseason (starting January 2014): The Carrie Diaries/The Tomorrow People
    Summer: ANTM

  • Tori

    So, apparently, both Nikita and The Carrie Diaries got renewed.

  • Yo

    Hart of Dixie

    The 100

    The Tomorrow People

    The Vampire Diaries
    The Originals

    Beauty and the Beast
    Nikita/The Carrie Diaries

    2 CBS comedy pilots and Oh Sit!

  • thesnowleopard

    @Richard Steven Hack
    Now, come on, you can’t do a proper fan flounce out of any forum unless you actually *leave* for a while.

    Also, regardless of how you think you’re coming across, calling another poster names only reflects poorly on you.

  • CrystalBall

    I wonder who’s gonna be sent to death on friday.

  • Craig

    So happy to see Hart of Dixie renewed and 90210 cancelled. But how the hell did The Carrie Diaries get another season?

  • Danielle

    @ RSH
    “Except of course you won’t. If Nikita is renewed at all, you’ll be here for another year just carping and bitching and moaning. You won’t stop bitching like the bitch you are until Nikita is finally done.

    And then I suppose you’ll pick another show to do the same.

    You are one main reason I intend to limit my participation on this site going forward. The site is being taken over by lames like you who have nothing constructive to contribute except bitchy remarks.”

    That’s like the pot calling the kettle black!! How does it feel having someone continually trash your show for the pure enjoyment of it? How does the medicine taste??

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