NBC: Final Predictions For 'Community,' 'Hannibal,' 'Go On,' 'Parks & Rec,' 'Whitney' & More

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

May 7th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2013 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

    Robert Bill
1600 Penn NBC 0% 0%
Deception NBC 20% 0%
Guys With Kids NBC 5% 0%
Up All Night NBC 0% 0%
The New Normal NBC 20% 25%
Hannibal NBC 25% 30%
Whitney NBC 55% 51%
Go On NBC 58% 55%
Community NBC 52% 60%
Parks & Recreation NBC 100% 100%

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5/8 Update: Deception has been canceled.

5/9 Updates: Parks & Recreation has been renewed. Whitney has been canceled. 1600 Penn has been canceled. Guys With Kids and Up All Night have both been canceled.

5/10 Update: Go On & The New Normal have been canceled. Community has been renewed.
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In what's a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final NBC predictions. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

I'm anticipating one or more misses on my predictions for Whitney, Go On and Community. I don't think all three will be renewed, but I don't think all three will be canceled either. I think each individual show is slightly more likely to be renewed than canceled, so that gets me to my slightly positive guesses on all three.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Smash canceled 0.63
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
1600 Penn* :oops: 0.74
Guys With Kids* :oops: 0.81
The New Normal* :cry: :cry: 0.81
Community :| :| :| 0.86
Whitney* :| :| :| 0.86
Go On* :| :| :| 0.90
Deception* :oops: 0.91
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Hannibal :| :| :| 0.94
Grimm (F) renewed 1.03
Parenthood* renewed 1.08
Parks & Recreation* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Law & Order: SVU renewed 1.19
Chicago Fire renewed 1.33
The Office final season 1.37
Revolution renewed 1.50
Up All Night :oops: ?

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Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

 
  • Dennis

    Flop HANNIBAL

    Flop DECEPTION

    :D

  • Kate

    Given the ratings, I’d usually agree that Hannibal doesn’t have a good shot—but given that NBC quite literally has nothing to replace it with AND it’s such a critical darling, I don’t see how they can cancel it and continue to function. Of course, I could be wrong; with NBC these days, all bets are off. They need to figure out a model where they aren’t down to the wire with shows that are failing in the ratings but have nothing left to put on the air.

  • Cougar Town Forever

    Even though they are close, I think Bill’s predictions are more on target than Roberts. Deception and GWK have no hope, and I would rank the likelihood of renewal for Community, Go On, and Whitney getting renewed in that order. The only difference is that I would put Whitney’s chances at a little under 50%. 45% let’s say.

  • TV Addict

    RENEW COMMUNITY FOR 2 MORE SEASONS!!!
    #SIXSEASONSANDAMOVIE !!!!!!!

  • gerry

    maybe usa should pick up hannibal. then that net could have a good tv show. everyone that watches seems to says it belongs on cable….

    rooting for tnn, but i’m also realistic.

  • Hannibal

    I hope your both wrong and Hannibal is renewed. It is such a wonderful and dark show. It has a huge cult following that would love to see it continue.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Given the ratings, I’d usually agree that Hannibal doesn’t have a good shot—but given that NBC quite literally has nothing to replace it with AND it’s such a critical darling, I don’t see how they can cancel it and continue to function. Of course, I could be wrong; with NBC these days, all bets are off. They need to figure out a model where they aren’t down to the wire with shows that are failing in the ratings but have nothing left to put on the air.”

    They have nothing to replace it with? So, you don’t think they’ve been developing new drama pilots this spring?

  • Dennis

    @Hannibal

    OBVIOUSLY doesn’t have a HUGE cult following now does it?? ROFL !!! Barely 2.5 million viewers

  • gillian smith

    save up all night!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Sel

    Such a shame for Hannibal!
    NBC you ruin everything :D

  • frodo

    Parks, Community, Whitney and maybe Go on will be renewed. Everything else canceled.
    Too bad about Hannibal it had some potential.

  • rob60990

    Monday
    8:00- The Voice
    10:00- Blacklist (NEW DRAMA)

    Tuesday
    8:00- The Voice
    9:00- Happiness (NEW COMEDY)
    9:30- Welcome to the Family (NEW COMEDY)
    10:00- Parenthood

    Wednesday
    8:00- Law & Order:SVU (NEW TIME)
    9:00- Chicago Fire (NEW TIME)
    10:00- Chicago Fire spinoss (NEW DRAMA)

    Thursday
    8:00- Parks & Recreation
    8:30- Assistance (NEW COMEDY)
    9:00- MJF (NEW COMEDY)
    9:30- Family Guide (NEW COMEDY)
    10:00- Revolution (NEW NIGHT)

    Friday
    8:00- Dateline (NEW TIME)
    9:00- Grimm
    10:00- Dracula (NEW DRAMA)

    Sunday after football season
    7:00- Dateline
    8:00- Biggest Loser
    10:00- Crisis (NEW DRAMA)

    Midseason: Community, About a Boy, Undateable, Believe, Ironside, Crossbones, Betty White’s Off Their Rockers

  • Cougar Town Forever

    I think it needs to be said…I don’t think Hannibal is all that good. Every week people get so excited about Hannibal. I watched the pilot and started the second episode. Didn’t like it. I don’t think the drop in viewers is some fluke. I really don’t think its a very good show. It’s just like Pushing Daisies…it is an interesting premise and it looks cool, but the stories are very week and can’t propel the show from week to week.

  • Ultima

    I think that NBC will renew two or three sitcoms. I would be surprised if the renewed four and completely shocked if they renewed more than that.

    Parks and Recreation is a certain renewal (although possibly for a final season).

    I’m punting and going true toss-up on Community and Go On. I think one of them will probably be back, but not both.

    As for Whitney, that’s also a toss-up. If they stick with the multi-cam hour on Wednesday, it gets renewed. If not, it gets canceled.

    No chance that The New Normal, 1600 Penn, or Guys With Kids gets renewed.

    Deception will be canceled and Hannibal will probably (80%) be canceled.

  • erwanfromfrance

    I just don’t understand why predictions are so different between Guys With Kids and Whitney ! They got the same ratings ! GWK high : 1.7% (2.2%) GWK low : 1.0% Whitney high : 1.8% Whitney low : 1.0%

  • Jimson

    Could Hannibal be one of the shows you’re totally wrong about this year?

    tvwise says that Go On, Guys With Kids, Hannibal and Parks and Recreation would be renewed, according to inside sources. We’ll see.

  • SJ

    Up All Night – 0% (are negative numbers an option?)
    1600 Penn – 0%
    Deception – 0%
    Hannibal – 10%
    Whitney – 33%
    Guys with Kids – 45%
    The New Normal – 51%
    Go On – 52%
    Community – 60%
    Parks and Recreation – 100%

    Let it be clear that I’M not advocating for a renewal for The New Normal. I think NBC will renew it because of Ryan Murphy and, well, politics. I would personally cancel everything but Parks and Rec.

  • Wright

    Renew Hannibal!!!

  • Billy

    If NBC renews all or most of the above sitcoms they are nuts. They need to start over with all new sitcoms. Just renew Parks & Recreation and find new possible hits. Renewing these low rated sitcoms would be nothing more than schedule filler.

  • robin

    @Cougar Town Forever – sorry, but you watched 1.25 episodes out of a series and you’re writing it off as “not very good?” It’s okay if it’s not your thing (just like Cougar Town is not my thing). :)

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