NBC: Final Predictions For 'Community,' 'Hannibal,' 'Go On,' 'Parks & Rec,' 'Whitney' & More

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

May 7th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2013 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

    Robert Bill
1600 Penn NBC 0% 0%
Deception NBC 20% 0%
Guys With Kids NBC 5% 0%
Up All Night NBC 0% 0%
The New Normal NBC 20% 25%
Hannibal NBC 25% 30%
Whitney NBC 55% 51%
Go On NBC 58% 55%
Community NBC 52% 60%
Parks & Recreation NBC 100% 100%

-
5/8 Update: Deception has been canceled.

5/9 Updates: Parks & Recreation has been renewed. Whitney has been canceled. 1600 Penn has been canceled. Guys With Kids and Up All Night have both been canceled.

5/10 Update: Go On & The New Normal have been canceled. Community has been renewed.
-
In what's a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final NBC predictions. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

I'm anticipating one or more misses on my predictions for Whitney, Go On and Community. I don't think all three will be renewed, but I don't think all three will be canceled either. I think each individual show is slightly more likely to be renewed than canceled, so that gets me to my slightly positive guesses on all three.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
-
For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Smash canceled 0.63
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
1600 Penn* :oops: 0.74
Guys With Kids* :oops: 0.81
The New Normal* :cry: :cry: 0.81
Community :| :| :| 0.86
Whitney* :| :| :| 0.86
Go On* :| :| :| 0.90
Deception* :oops: 0.91
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Hannibal :| :| :| 0.94
Grimm (F) renewed 1.03
Parenthood* renewed 1.08
Parks & Recreation* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Law & Order: SVU renewed 1.19
Chicago Fire renewed 1.33
The Office final season 1.37
Revolution renewed 1.50
Up All Night :oops: ?

-
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

-
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

 
  • Holly Quixote

    @KJ Styles,

    It’s ridiculous that NBC would cancel Hannibal considering that only TWO of their scripted shows average a 2.0, and one of them is ending.

    There’s a lot of room between a 2.0 and the 1.1 Hannibal got last week.

  • Mel

    Silence Of The Lambs was what originally made me fall in love with cinema, so, huge fan of the franchise. But Fuller and co have completely obliterated my fangirl expectations with Hannibal. Its a phenomenal show and NBC would be absolutely insane to cancel it. Move it to a different day/time and let the audience grow.

    Besides, how much will NBC be kicking themselves when Mads Mikkelsen gets nominated for an Oscar next year (for The Hunt) and they’ve let him go?

    PLEASE DO NOT CANCEL HANNIBAL!

  • greyfm_dan

    Just my $.02…

    1600 Penn: It’s done. 0%

    Up All Night: It’s done. And NBC execs will probably never speak publically of it again. 0%

    Deception: Better ratings than some NBC shows, but I can’t really see a strong reason for NBC to keep it around. <1%

    Guys with Kids: If it has a glimmer of hope, it's that its ratings were fairly consistent. Unfortunately, its consistent ratings were never that good to begin with. Will Fallon be a factor? Maybe, but I tend to think getting the Tonight Show will more than make up for any disappointment Jimmy may have over GWK. 2% (And it's too bad; I liked the show.)

    Hannibal: NBC might feel it's too soon to cancel. But it hasn't really recovered from its recent tumble. And with NBC's relative success with dramas this season, there's less room on the bubble for mediocre-performing dramas than mediocre-performing sitcoms. 33%

    The New Normal: If this were any other show, judged solely on its ratings, its fate would have been sealed a long time ago. But this is NBC's PC darling, & if the execs were fishing for a reason to renew, they may have gotten it with that post-Voice 1.7. But, that 1.7 was very much an outlier–and don't think that will go unnoticed by advertisers. A spackle renewal wouldn't shock me; but if it happens, look for Smash-level ratings. 39%

    Whitney: NBC may feel it has a fairly consistent show ratings-wise that it can plug in as needed. I'm on the fence, but calling it for a spackle renewal. 51%

    Go On: A disappointing end to a show that showed a lot of ratings promise in the fall. But, like Whitney, NBC may feel it has a show it can plug in as needed–and with much more potential than Whitney. And given NBC's recent history with comedies, it would be foolish to rely too much on pilots & cancel everything else (except Parks & Rec). 60%

    Community: Not great ratings, but it has a loyal (albeit small) following, and it's unlikely NBC will squash it this close to 88. I'm going with renewal, though maybe not for more than 13 eps. 70%

    Parks & Rec: 100%

  • MichaelB

    My schedule:

    Monday

    The Voice
    Blacklist

    Tuesday

    The Voice
    Sean Hayes Comedy
    Assistance
    Revolution

    Wednesday

    Parenthood
    Chicaco Fire
    Night Shift

    Thursday

    Go On (13) / Community (13)
    Parks and Rec
    MJF
    About A Boy
    Law & Order SVU

    Friday

    Dateline
    Grimm
    Dracula (10) / Crossbones (10) / Hannibal (13)

    Sunday

    Rock Center
    Celebrity Apprentice
    Crisis

    Replacements: The Sixth Gun, Believe, The New Normal, Brenda Forever

  • omabin

    Deception has been officially canceled by NBC, per Deadline.

  • merrranga

    Deception’s done. boom.

  • merrranga

    @omabin damn you, missed it by that much.

  • Ultima

    Per Deadline, dead pilots…

    Comedies – The Gates, Brenda Forever, Joe Joe & Jane, Holding Patterns

    Dramas – Hatfields & McCoys, The Secret Lives of Husbands & Wives

  • Chris J

    @omabin
    @Ultima

    Good riddance. Those pilots all sounded bad, and now that Deception is done Hannibal may have a SLIGHT chance at renewal.

  • ralph

    i hear good things regarding About A Boy directed by John Favreau? anybody else

  • Matthew Chapman

    Update to the table time

    As Per TV Line, Deception has been cancelled

  • Ultima

    Greg Daniels/Robert Padnick sitcom and the drama Bloodlines are also apparently dead.

    The Ellie Kemper starring Brenda Forever is only mostly dead. Paging Dr. Crystal?

    Looks like no remnants of The Office on NBC next year?

  • Alan

    Guessing that with Deception’s cancellation, Hannibal has better chances of getting renewed. It’s the only NBC show I watch besides Fashion Star, it has to get renewed!!!!!!!!!!

  • Ultima

    The Sixth Gun is dead.

    Brenda Forever isn’t dead yet, but definitely won’t make the fall schedule.

    Updated list of dead pilots…

    Drama – Hatfields & McCoys, The Secret Lives of Husbands & Wives, Bloodline, The Sixth Gun

    Comedy – The Gates, Joe Joe & Jane, Holding Patterns

  • Mr Mumble

    Based on Deadline’s info of the first round of pilot culling here’s a rough idea of what new shows are still in contention for the fall on NBC.

    Comedies:

    About A Boy
    Assistance
    Family Guide
    Happiness
    The John Mulaney Show
    Undateable
    Welcome To The Family
    Project with Jessica Simpson from Nick Bakay
    Project by Owen Ellickson and Craig Robinson

    The Michael J Fox vehicle was picked up a while ago, of course.

    Dramas:

    Believe
    The Blacklist
    Crisis
    Dracula
    I Am Victor
    Ironside
    Wonderland

  • omabin

    @Mr Mumble,

    Crossbones has already been picked up as well, as has Dracula. It nos clear however even any of the two will make it to the fall schedule or if they will be held to midseason.

  • Alex

    @Mr Mumble
    Dracula was ordered straight to series and is already in production on episodes. It will absolutely be on NBC’s Fall schedule although won’t get a back 9 as its an international co-production so it’ll just be on in the Fall with a possible second season for 2014-2015. Pirate drama Crossbones was also ordered straight to series and looks like it’ll land midseason unless they package it as a special event over summer 2014. Wonderland meanwhile has been pushed to shooting off cycle and given that ABC is apparently keen on their Wonderland set Once Upon A Time spin-off I suspect it might die a quiet death.

    Looking at the drama pilots still in contention at NBC I think they might pick-up all of them. That would be Believe, Blacklist, Crisis, I Am Victor and Ironside plus the straight to series Dracula (Fall) and Crossbones (Spring). The only thing I’m unsure on is whether they’ll grab I Am Victor and Ironside or just one of them. I Am Victor is somewhat similar to Rake which looks likely to get picked up by Fox so they may pass on that.

  • Alex

    @omabin
    NBC have already announced plans to air Dracula in the Fall. Crossbones doesn’t go into production until the end of this year so won’t be ready beofre midseason at the earliest.

  • Ultima

    NBC appears to be done killing pilots for the night. Here’s the current status of their pilots/pickups for next season…

    Comedy

    ordered to series – Untitled Michael J Fox (22 eps)

    very strong – About a Boy, Assistance, Family Guide, Undateable, Welcome to the Family, Happiness

    dark horse – Untitled Ellickson/Robinson, The John Mulaney Show

    nearly dead – Brenda Forever, Untitled Padnick

    Drama

    ordered to series – Dracula (10 eps), Crossbones (10 eps)

    front runners – The Blacklist, Crisis

    others – Believe, I Am Victor, Ironside, Chicago Fire spinoff

    There’s also several off cycle projects that obviously can’t be picked up this week for the fall, because they haven’t shot the pilots yet – Wonderland, The Donor Party, Girlfriend in a Coma, and the Untitled Jessica Simpson project.

  • Alex

    After Hours/Night Shift not dead after all it would seem.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures