NBC: Final Predictions For 'Community,' 'Hannibal,' 'Go On,' 'Parks & Rec,' 'Whitney' & More

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

May 7th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2013 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

    Robert Bill
1600 Penn NBC 0% 0%
Deception NBC 20% 0%
Guys With Kids NBC 5% 0%
Up All Night NBC 0% 0%
The New Normal NBC 20% 25%
Hannibal NBC 25% 30%
Whitney NBC 55% 51%
Go On NBC 58% 55%
Community NBC 52% 60%
Parks & Recreation NBC 100% 100%

-
5/8 Update: Deception has been canceled.

5/9 Updates: Parks & Recreation has been renewed. Whitney has been canceled. 1600 Penn has been canceled. Guys With Kids and Up All Night have both been canceled.

5/10 Update: Go On & The New Normal have been canceled. Community has been renewed.
-
In what's a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final NBC predictions. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

I'm anticipating one or more misses on my predictions for Whitney, Go On and Community. I don't think all three will be renewed, but I don't think all three will be canceled either. I think each individual show is slightly more likely to be renewed than canceled, so that gets me to my slightly positive guesses on all three.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
-
For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Smash canceled 0.63
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
1600 Penn* :oops: 0.74
Guys With Kids* :oops: 0.81
The New Normal* :cry: :cry: 0.81
Community :| :| :| 0.86
Whitney* :| :| :| 0.86
Go On* :| :| :| 0.90
Deception* :oops: 0.91
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Hannibal :| :| :| 0.94
Grimm (F) renewed 1.03
Parenthood* renewed 1.08
Parks & Recreation* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Law & Order: SVU renewed 1.19
Chicago Fire renewed 1.33
The Office final season 1.37
Revolution renewed 1.50
Up All Night :oops: ?

-
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

-
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

 
  • omabin

    After Hours is still alive!!

  • Alex

    Also I’m predicting The Blacklist gets Monday 10PM in the Fall. If its testing data is any indication NBC are going to be pushing it hard next season. And while I’m randomly predicting things Crisis gets held until midseason to benefit from Olympics promotion and an uninterrupted run. Probably replacing Revolution wherever its second season crashes and burns (Tuesday at 9PM?)

  • omabin

    @Ultima,

    I was checking it out and, on the drama side, there is also Untitled Rand Ravich Project, with Gillian Anderson. After Hours is also still alive after all. It is still too close to call it, sine I don’t believe they will pick up all these dramas.

  • Alex

    On renewal/cancel predictions.

    Parks & Rec gets renewed but I just cannot get behind this theory that any of the other comedies follow suit. Maybe Go On if they feel the need for a face saving renewal and maybe Whitney if they want a pre-existing multi-cam to continue that weird Wednesday comedy hour but I’m not convinced by either of those. The whole ‘schedule spackle’ pre-Olympics argument doesn’t really fly with me either. They already have The Sing-Off in place presumably to fill that awkward January before the Olympics the rest will just be repeats and unscripted stuff I guess. Although I suppose if someone really wants to push Community to 100 episodes and they’re willing to knock out a handful of cheap episodes NBC might air those at some point in January as well…

    On Hannibal I think they might try and push that decision down the road not only to see how it does over the summer but also how it does internationally to see whether the financing model in place for season one would hold for a potential second season. If its steady(ish) and does well internationally I could see a season 2 order for summer 2014. Their original planned seemed to be to air the first season over the summer anyway. Plus I think they can position it for an Emmy which would give them some desperately need positive PR. But at the same time maybe I’m just desperately looking for reasons to try and keep it… the numbers don’t say renewal.

  • Mr Mumble

    Looks like decisions on NBC comedies are being made tomorrow (Thursday) now. NBC supposedly wanting short orders for the bubble shows.

  • HV

    @Ultima
    This isn’t official, right? I hope not. I am very excited for The Gates and Joe & Joe & Jane. If Undateable doesn’t get picked up I shall be pissed.

  • Alex

    @omabin
    I was checking it out and, on the drama side, there is also Untitled Rand Ravich Project…

    Untitled Rand Ravich got a title. Its now Crisis.

  • Alex

    @HV
    This isn’t official, right? I hope not. I am very excited for The Gates and Joe & Joe & Jane.

    The Gates and Joe & Joe & Jane are both dead. NBC execs have told the producers that they won’t be moving forward with the projects. Undateable is still in contention.

  • stevenD

    Welcome to the Family,Family Guide, and About a Boy along with MJF all being in contention makes it seem like a single cam family night is very possible somewhere on the schedule (Thursday?)

  • omabin

    @Alex,

    Silly me, of course. Thanks

  • Oliver

    I wonder if NBC wants shows they can wedge between Christmas and the Olympics. Double-pumped, that would be 10-12 episodes. I can’t see the network (or production companies) going for 6 episode orders.

    I can’t see Sony turning down 10-12 episodes for Community, which would put them on a very nice 94-96 episodes.

  • HV

    @Alex
    Ok. Darn. I was looking forward to the two of them.

  • ROLY

    PERHAPS THE CW SHOULD PICK UP SOME OF THESE CANCELED
    SHOWS,WILL INSTANTLY DOUBLE OR TRIPLE VIEWERSHIP

  • Kyle

    #SixSeasonsAndAMovie

  • Potato

    @Mr. Mumble

    Where did you hear this? If they do announce tomorrow, I feel pretty good about Community– they’d be unlikely to announce it as a series finale the day it airs, that might push people away from watching it. Much more likely to quietly announce it a few days later when they assume people already forgot about it (cough that’s how they fired Dan Harmon cough)

    Ok then, final prediction:

    Parks and Rec– renewed.
    Community– Final 13-16 episode season (if 16 will just be push to get to 100)
    Go On– renewed without a set order but will wind up being just 13 due to ratings, and cancelled.
    Whitney: Cancelled.
    6 new comedies picked up– 5 plus Michael J Fox

  • Potato

    @Mr. Mumble

    Short orders for the bubble shows makes a lot of sense, since that’s what they did last year and it helped them minimize risk. I can see them doing that.

  • Mr Mumble

    @Potato, variety.com now has a report (“NBC’s Bubble Shows Await Decisions on Thursday”).

    We don’t know how short the orders are that NBC are offering. It could be a polite way of killing off shows! Not unlike the “Up All Night” situation. It’d be very hard for studios to accept 6-8 episode orders for their sophomore comedies while 13 episodes would be viable.

  • MichaelB

    My prediction:

    Guys With Kids 10%
    Up All Night 0%
    New Normal 51% – “Politics”, “Ryan Murphy”, finale aired after The Voice
    Hannibal 55% – Low cost, critics’ darling – Summer 2014
    Whitney 45%
    Go On 60%
    Community 70%
    Parks & Rec 95%

  • DKD

    I’d give Hannibal higher odds because its C3 rating is 24% higher than its Live + SD rating.

  • Janet Snakehole 3

    Hannibal does not belong on NBC. Its too amazing, violent and graphic. A&E could pair it with Bates Motel or a premium cable channel can take it and really have fun with it. Since its only dreams, all I can do is pray that NBC does not cancel it. Its the best new show.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures