NBC: Final Predictions For 'Community,' 'Hannibal,' 'Go On,' 'Parks & Rec,' 'Whitney' & More

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

May 7th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2013 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

    Robert Bill
1600 Penn NBC 0% 0%
Deception NBC 20% 0%
Guys With Kids NBC 5% 0%
Up All Night NBC 0% 0%
The New Normal NBC 20% 25%
Hannibal NBC 25% 30%
Whitney NBC 55% 51%
Go On NBC 58% 55%
Community NBC 52% 60%
Parks & Recreation NBC 100% 100%

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5/8 Update: Deception has been canceled.

5/9 Updates: Parks & Recreation has been renewed. Whitney has been canceled. 1600 Penn has been canceled. Guys With Kids and Up All Night have both been canceled.

5/10 Update: Go On & The New Normal have been canceled. Community has been renewed.
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In what's a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final NBC predictions. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

I'm anticipating one or more misses on my predictions for Whitney, Go On and Community. I don't think all three will be renewed, but I don't think all three will be canceled either. I think each individual show is slightly more likely to be renewed than canceled, so that gets me to my slightly positive guesses on all three.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Smash canceled 0.63
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
1600 Penn* :oops: 0.74
Guys With Kids* :oops: 0.81
The New Normal* :cry: :cry: 0.81
Community :| :| :| 0.86
Whitney* :| :| :| 0.86
Go On* :| :| :| 0.90
Deception* :oops: 0.91
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Hannibal :| :| :| 0.94
Grimm (F) renewed 1.03
Parenthood* renewed 1.08
Parks & Recreation* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Law & Order: SVU renewed 1.19
Chicago Fire renewed 1.33
The Office final season 1.37
Revolution renewed 1.50
Up All Night :oops: ?

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Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

 
  • Rebecca

    Dang it, I was looking forward to Gates (I thought “The” had been dropped from title).

  • Matthew Chapman

    As Per Deadline, The NBC Pickups are starting to come through

    Dramas, Believe and Crisis Comedy About A Boy have been picked up by NBC

  • Scott

    Hannibal is such a great show and the critics seem to love it also. I don’t think NBC will cancel it because 1.It’s going to be a 13 episode show know matter what anyway and 2. So many people are openly not watching it until they know there is going to be a season 2 so the ratings in a season 2 will easily double.

  • Mr Mumble

    Parks and Recreation renewed (sources: Deadline and Variety).

  • Matthew Chapman

    According to Variety, 1600 Penn has been cancelled. Also there is Speculation that the next season of Parks and Recreation maybe the last.

  • Marius

    At least TVBTN is kinder to NBC than Yahoo. The comments alone are full of “why is this network still on the air?”

    Mostly from political preference than the content, but whatever. My point is people on here could be worse.

  • Mr Mumble

    Whitney canceled according to Variety and Deadline!

    Could we be seeing a mass popping of bubble shows?

  • Matthew Chapman

    Guys With Kids and Up All Night have also biten the dust (Been Cancelled).

  • jupido

    Quote from Deadline: “Hannibal looks promising on the drama side”

    We’ll see.

  • Jazz

    Looks like we are waiting to hear about Community, The New Normal and Go On in addition to Hannibal.

  • Patrick Ausgewahlt

    Not a big mess up, but you guys were wrong about Whitney. I couldn’t count it as a mess up since it was on the bubble, but you both had it over 50%

  • Alan

    I think it’s just a matter of time for NBC to announce Hannibal, Go On and TNN renewed for new seasons. Community will get a final season.

  • Chris J

    The Community finale tonight was a perfect close out to the series. As a fan of the show, if Dan Harmon is not on board for another season, it’d be best for them to just end the show right there.

  • Vincent

    Nah. Hannibal’s totally going to get a second season.

  • Dan

    @Patrick Ausgewahlt – Honestly Whitney was 50/50, Bill and Robert just had them on the slightly positive side of 50/50. I personally guesed it would be renewed but it seems this season NBC cleaned house comedy wise. They only seem to be renewing Parks, they probably will renew Go On and The New Normal probably will be cancelled,and who knows about Community after tonights finale.

  • blackrock1969

    One last shot:

    Mon.
    8:00 The Voice
    10:00 The Blacklist (NEW)

    Tue.
    8:00 The Voice results
    9:00 Sean Saves the World (NEW)
    9:30 Undateable (NEW)
    10:00 Parenthood

    Wed.
    8:00 Crisis (NEW)
    9:00 Law and Order: SVU
    10:00 Chicago Fire

    Thu.
    8:00 Parks and Recreation
    8:30 Community (13-episode final season)/Assistance (NEW, midseason)
    9:00 The Michael J. Fox Show (NEW)
    9:30 About a Boy (NEW)
    10:00 Revolution

    Fri.
    8:00 Go On
    8:30 The Family Guide (NEW)
    9;00 Grimm
    10:00 Dateline NBC

    Sun. (midseason)
    7:00 Repeats
    8:00 Dracula (NEW)
    9:00 Celebrity Apprentice

    Thoughts are welcome.

  • Marc

    PLEASE KEEP ‘WHITNEY’!! It is a VERY FUNNY SHOW!!!!!

  • Marc

    Please NBC….Keep Whitney, The New Normal and Go On!
    Please there are too many doctor shows and CSI stuff. We need More Comedy! Thanks!

  • Bullwinkle

    Whitney is dead Hooray! Got that one wrong, but we still love you, CB!

  • Craig

    Keep Community, dump Hannibal. But NBC is almost as bad a network as Fox…

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