NBC: Final Predictions For 'Community,' 'Hannibal,' 'Go On,' 'Parks & Rec,' 'Whitney' & More

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

May 7th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2013 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

    Robert Bill
1600 Penn NBC 0% 0%
Deception NBC 20% 0%
Guys With Kids NBC 5% 0%
Up All Night NBC 0% 0%
The New Normal NBC 20% 25%
Hannibal NBC 25% 30%
Whitney NBC 55% 51%
Go On NBC 58% 55%
Community NBC 52% 60%
Parks & Recreation NBC 100% 100%

-
5/8 Update: Deception has been canceled.

5/9 Updates: Parks & Recreation has been renewed. Whitney has been canceled. 1600 Penn has been canceled. Guys With Kids and Up All Night have both been canceled.

5/10 Update: Go On & The New Normal have been canceled. Community has been renewed.
-
In what's a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final NBC predictions. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

I'm anticipating one or more misses on my predictions for Whitney, Go On and Community. I don't think all three will be renewed, but I don't think all three will be canceled either. I think each individual show is slightly more likely to be renewed than canceled, so that gets me to my slightly positive guesses on all three.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
-
For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Smash canceled 0.63
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
1600 Penn* :oops: 0.74
Guys With Kids* :oops: 0.81
The New Normal* :cry: :cry: 0.81
Community :| :| :| 0.86
Whitney* :| :| :| 0.86
Go On* :| :| :| 0.90
Deception* :oops: 0.91
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Hannibal :| :| :| 0.94
Grimm (F) renewed 1.03
Parenthood* renewed 1.08
Parks & Recreation* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Law & Order: SVU renewed 1.19
Chicago Fire renewed 1.33
The Office final season 1.37
Revolution renewed 1.50
Up All Night :oops: ?

-
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

-
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

 
  • Rebecca

    Maybe Hannibal could go to USA like Southland did (I think that was the cable network anyway; I don’t have it or watch it).

  • kamesha

    im going to miss mob doctor and deception to me they were great shows

  • Fox

    Giving The New Normal a 51% as it does very well in total streams online.

  • Diego

    I think that for Community to be renewed, they need to bring Dan Harmon back.

  • tobes

    Go On was just cancelled

  • Matthew Chapman

    And Since NBC appears to be having a bloodbath with their comedies, I think we can safely say that The New Normal maybe next with Community getting renewed.

  • Patrick Ausgewahlt

    You guys are doing great on certain to be renewed and cancelled, but you are 0/2 for NBC bubble comedies. Hopefully you can be 1/3 with a Community renewal

  • Charmed

    What happened to the Jessica Simpson comedy pilot? It was supposed to be in development, but I can’t find any recent news.

  • ChingChongineh

    go on had one of the highest predictions there, i dont understand why it was cancelled, i fell scammed :(

  • Matthew Chapman

    Community has been renewed.

  • Lukes

    At the end it seems that Billy was more spot-on, with the cancellation of everything but his first two shows :)

  • Steve

    They were both wrong about Whitney!
    HAHAHAHAHHAH

  • Jake

    NBC should renew Hannibal because…
    1) It’s cheap
    2) Critically, it’s a success
    3) It can be paired with Grimm pretty well on Fridays (definitely better than Fashion Star could)

    (And to clarify, I don’t even watch this show)

  • Edward

    don’t cancel hannibal. he was not caught yet

  • Stupid NBC

    I hate NBC. You suck!
    I love Whitney, Go On, The New Normal, and Guys with Kids.

  • Sean

    I hope Hannibal is renewed. And here is a reason why it will be. It will never be a show that fills an entire Fall / Spring season. By design, each season is 13 episodes (similar to pretty much every cable tv show). If you look at the tv #s its getting 2.5 million viewers live, but its numbers jump up to 7.5 million with DVR recordings. I know the show is not for everyone. If you don’t like the violence change the channel. I am looking forward to seeing what develops. I would prefer this to some of the pilots being floated by NBC.

  • Michael Whalen

    NBC !!!! Please! Please! Please! Don’t cancel Hannibal!!! I was just saying a few weeks ago how the networks were finally coming up with some great shows like you guys with Hannibal and Fox with The Following. You haven’t had anything really good since ER. Hannibal is a very good replacement!! Please don’t cancel it!! Please!!!! There has become quite a large following for Hannibal!! You’re gonna break a lot of hearts if you do!! I for one am gonna get on all the Hannibal chat rooms and tell everyone to send a flood of Emails!

  • Kells

    I can’t believe NBC canceled Deception. I’m so disappointed . They suck!

  • Kelly

    save “Hannibal” such a GREAT show, GREAT actors, GREAT story line.

  • Ryan

    I really hope now that 2 big shows from NBC are gone(30 Rock and The Office) Community gets a better time slot, its a great show but it has to compete with the big bang theory, that’s why they renewed it for only 13 EPs it has potential as a good sitcom it just doesn’t get the views.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures