NBC: Final Predictions For 'Community,' 'Hannibal,' 'Go On,' 'Parks & Rec,' 'Whitney' & More

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

May 7th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2013 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

    Robert Bill
1600 Penn NBC 0% 0%
Deception NBC 20% 0%
Guys With Kids NBC 5% 0%
Up All Night NBC 0% 0%
The New Normal NBC 20% 25%
Hannibal NBC 25% 30%
Whitney NBC 55% 51%
Go On NBC 58% 55%
Community NBC 52% 60%
Parks & Recreation NBC 100% 100%

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5/8 Update: Deception has been canceled.

5/9 Updates: Parks & Recreation has been renewed. Whitney has been canceled. 1600 Penn has been canceled. Guys With Kids and Up All Night have both been canceled.

5/10 Update: Go On & The New Normal have been canceled. Community has been renewed.
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In what's a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final NBC predictions. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

I'm anticipating one or more misses on my predictions for Whitney, Go On and Community. I don't think all three will be renewed, but I don't think all three will be canceled either. I think each individual show is slightly more likely to be renewed than canceled, so that gets me to my slightly positive guesses on all three.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Smash canceled 0.63
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
1600 Penn* :oops: 0.74
Guys With Kids* :oops: 0.81
The New Normal* :cry: :cry: 0.81
Community :| :| :| 0.86
Whitney* :| :| :| 0.86
Go On* :| :| :| 0.90
Deception* :oops: 0.91
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Hannibal :| :| :| 0.94
Grimm (F) renewed 1.03
Parenthood* renewed 1.08
Parks & Recreation* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Law & Order: SVU renewed 1.19
Chicago Fire renewed 1.33
The Office final season 1.37
Revolution renewed 1.50
Up All Night :oops: ?

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Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

 
  • MichaelChickless

    Renew GWK, Whitney, Community, Parks, and of course Hannibal!

  • robin

    Man, I really hope they renew Hannibal. Just one time, give a show a little time to catch on and breathe! I will never understand why they put it on Thursday nights. They should have put it on Friday after Grimm and let it gain a following. *sigh*

  • Dan

    The only chance Hannibal has is for a midseason run of 13 episodes liek FOX with the Following there’s a chance for that. I do think all 3 of Whitney, Community and Go On will be renewed. Go On and Whitney for the fall and Community for midseason. If anything Community may be cancelled of the three.

    I agree with Bill’s guesses on Up All Night, 1600 Penn, Deception, and Guys With Kids. No chance (Not sure why Robert has Deception for 20%, that show has been dead for a while) And I also agree with Bill’s on Community and Parks but agree with Robert’s on Whitney and Go On since I believe they have a higher chance to be renewed. The New Normal is definitely dead as it is not owned by NBC and has no syndication potential.

    My guesses

    Renewed: Parks & Rec, Go On, Whitney, Community (final season), Hannibal (13 ep midseason)

    Cancelled: Up All Night, Deception, The New Normal, 1600 Penn, Guys With Kids

    However if Community and Hannibal end up being cancelled I will not be surprised.

  • Sheldon Hooper

    Cancel Community

  • Iggy

    Hannibal, Community, and Whitney can spackle NBC’s Spring.

    Go On, The New Normal, and Parks will be on the Fall schedule.

  • MichaelChickless

    @Cougar Town Forever “I don’t think Hannibal is all that good. I watched the pilot and started the second episode”

    So you watched less than an hour and made up your mind?

  • RyanCanada

    I think Whitney’s chances are better than Community and Go On, Whitney would be entering season 3, go on season two, and your that low in season1 u have no future, and community is already syndication, no need to keep this show going.

  • PurpleDrazi

    ” It’s just like Pushing Daisies…it is an interesting premise and it looks cool, but the stories are very week…

    How dare you sir…how DARE you!

  • Ultima

    @erwanfromfrance
    I just don’t understand why predictions are so different between Guys With Kids and Whitney !

    Syndication is a goal and Whitney has a lot more episodes already produced (38 vs 17).

    Also, Guys With Kids did worse than Whitney almost every week that they aired together.

  • Anthony Parello (AP076)

    So Bill thinks in terms of chances for renewal: Community > Go On > Whitney

    Robert thinks: Go On > Whitney > Community

    I have to agree with Bill but all this is sooo on the margins:

    Big Picture:
    Chances all three are renewed: 5%
    Chances only two of the three are renewed: 75%
    Chances only one of the three are renewed: 20%

  • Ultima

    @robin
    I will never understand why they put it on Thursday nights.

    Because Thursday is an important night for advertising revenue and it’s doing better than Rock Center.

    Why is that so hard to grasp?

  • TVDude

    I agree with everything. Hannibal’s a lot harder to predict than the rest since I think NBC’s waiting to see how it does after The Office this week. If Hannibal rises back to a 1.3 or 1.4, they might go on ahead and renew it since that’s a rather decent number for a show that has aired Thursday at 10pm for that long. If it’s even with last week or down, it’s out. I find it almost funny how a few tenths of a point can make or break a show, but that’s how it is.

    Perhaps that’s why both of you did not say “0%”. Still, I thought I would explain why I think it’s still up in the air at NBC. They definitely don’t need it, but that doesn’t mean they won’t keep it. If it rises, they might surprise us the same way ABC did with BoP (although that was a much bigger surprise).

  • SJ

    I happen to think that Guys with Kids has a better chance than Whitney. Call it the Jimmy Fallon effect. And also, since there’s no chance Whitney will be getting 22 episodes, it will still never reach syndication. To be fair, neither will GWK, but it can at least air another season until Fallon comes up with something else.

  • Alan

    I hope Bill and Robert are wrong about Hannibal, the show had good ratings last week. The show is on a competitive day!

  • The Punisher

    I really think some people underestimate Hannibal’s chances.
    The show was never meant to air in the fall. Even if had great ratings, the plan was always to make 13 episode seasons. Add to that the fact that it’s a co-production and , like Jimson said, that tvwise seems to be sure it gets renewed, I really think it has good chances.

    We just don’t know what kind of Deal Sony and NBC have.
    It could be that NBC pays almost nothing for the show.

  • Anthony Parello (AP076)

    If The New Normal does by some miracle return.

    Would it then have the distinction of being the only show on the four networks to have hit a rating as low as 0.7 and still end up renewed?

  • SJ

    @Alan

    the show had good ratings last week

    A 1.1 is a good rating?!? Give me a break!

  • Anthony Parello (AP076)

    @Alan
    Posted May 7, 2013 at 9:25 AM
    “I hope Bill and Robert are wrong about Hannibal, the show had good ratings last week.”

    You mean the 1.0 ?????

  • Carmen

    @ SJ
    “Let it be clear that I’M not advocating for a renewal for The New Normal. I think NBC will renew it because of Ryan Murphy and, well, politics.”

    Have to agree and its this type of thinking that has resulted in NBC performing so pathetically with scripted shows in recent years.

    I’ve commented several times before that I think NBC will ignore the ratings and pick up The New Normal. They will roll the dice and gamble that they can absorb its ratings with Football, The Voice, and the Olympics next season.

  • Ken

    I could see NBC renewing a couple surprise sitcomes (TNN, for example) if they did as scheduling spackle, Friday nights, and/or 13-episode seasons. But not as a vote of confidence in that line up so much as a hedge against their pilots. But no confidence in anything but Parks & Rec.

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