NBC: Final Predictions For 'Community,' 'Hannibal,' 'Go On,' 'Parks & Rec,' 'Whitney' & More

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

May 7th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2013 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

    Robert Bill
1600 Penn NBC 0% 0%
Deception NBC 20% 0%
Guys With Kids NBC 5% 0%
Up All Night NBC 0% 0%
The New Normal NBC 20% 25%
Hannibal NBC 25% 30%
Whitney NBC 55% 51%
Go On NBC 58% 55%
Community NBC 52% 60%
Parks & Recreation NBC 100% 100%

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5/8 Update: Deception has been canceled.

5/9 Updates: Parks & Recreation has been renewed. Whitney has been canceled. 1600 Penn has been canceled. Guys With Kids and Up All Night have both been canceled.

5/10 Update: Go On & The New Normal have been canceled. Community has been renewed.
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In what's a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final NBC predictions. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

I'm anticipating one or more misses on my predictions for Whitney, Go On and Community. I don't think all three will be renewed, but I don't think all three will be canceled either. I think each individual show is slightly more likely to be renewed than canceled, so that gets me to my slightly positive guesses on all three.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Smash canceled 0.63
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
1600 Penn* :oops: 0.74
Guys With Kids* :oops: 0.81
The New Normal* :cry: :cry: 0.81
Community :| :| :| 0.86
Whitney* :| :| :| 0.86
Go On* :| :| :| 0.90
Deception* :oops: 0.91
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Hannibal :| :| :| 0.94
Grimm (F) renewed 1.03
Parenthood* renewed 1.08
Parks & Recreation* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Law & Order: SVU renewed 1.19
Chicago Fire renewed 1.33
The Office final season 1.37
Revolution renewed 1.50
Up All Night :oops: ?

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Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

 
  • Anthony Parello (AP076)

    Ooooops

    1.0 was overnight. My bad.
    Rating still bad.

  • Jeff R.

    Is there a reverse-syndication effect that could be in play with Whitney here? I mean, if it does get a full season, that would mean that next year it will be within reach of the ever-dropping magic number, which in turn means that picking it up now is almost a two-season commitment at ratings as bad or worse than what it’s doing now…

    I guess that doesn’t effect a 13-episode spackle order, though.

  • Anthony Parello (AP076)

    Interesting point Jeff R.

    I have to think that networks will have watched what has happened with The CW and Nikita and think maybe “in for a penny, in for a pound” is not the best thing.

  • Kris

    Renew Community
    Cancel Go On
    Cancel Whitney
    Cancel everything else.

  • Dan

    @SJ – Whitney has more of a chance than The New Normal and Guys With Kids which have no chance. Politics and Ryan Murphy wont be justification enough to save a low rated show, especially one not produced by NBC.

    Hannibal has 50% of a chance, there’s no chance it returns fall but midseason is very possible. However NBC could cancel it and since they probably have a fall schedule in place around now, this week’s ratings for Hannibal will determine its midseason fate.

    Go On WILL be renewed as NBC’s save face comedy. And NBC doesnt have to renew Community but they could again for midseason and more syndication eps. Guys With Kids has been dead for a while.

  • David

    According to tvwise, Guys with Kids might just manage a renewal which I could see happening.

  • Rebecca

    I was a huge Up All Night fan but with the drop of Christina Applegate, it better NOT be renewed (I have no hope that it will, but it would be a sin if it were without her). I also watched TNN and Go On. TNN lost it’s appeal mid-season but I still enjoy Go On. If they pick one over the other, I hope it’s Go On. Pretty TNN would go even more downhill in season 2.

    And whoa, whoa, to the commenter that stated Pushing Daisies had weak story lines – just, whoa. The cancellation of that show will forever be the biggest travesty in TV history.

  • Oliver

    At least Bill agrees Community is the 2nd most likely comedy to be renewed.

    I’m still not convinced that NBC needs to decide on Hannibal at upfronts.

    @erwanfromfrance

    Didn’t Whitney beat GWK every week they aired together?

  • Iggy

    So you watched less than an hour and made up your mind?

    How long would you need to sit through The Firm or The Mob Doctor to decide it’s not good?

  • Cougar Town Forever

    @robin

    Sorry robin. I wasn’t trying to be a hater…though that is exactly what I did. I genuinely respect that we all have different tastes, and I would rather watch Hannibal over the 50 different crime procedurals on CBS. I guess I feel that the writing could be better on that show. It’s an interesting story and the visuals can be quite stunning.

  • Justin

    I don’t think NBC will cancel The Celebrity Apprentice! Its still an important franchise for the network

  • Dan

    @Jeff R – If Whitney gets a full third season than its almost guaranteed for a full fourth but its very possible NBC could summon it for midseason in which case it would be the new Rules of Engagement.

    Right now it has 38 episodes. 22 from Season 1 and 16 from Season 2.

    Assuming it gets a full third and fourth season, that would give it 82 episodes. Thats the bare minimum for syndication but NBC could make it work.

    Whitney and Last Man Standing would be the first 2 multi cam comedies renewed for third seasons on a network other than CBS since Til Death and the first for NBC since??????

    NBC may want a multi cam show to sell to syndication which means they will try to do whatever it takes to get this one to 88 episodes.

  • TheFrenchGuy

    My odds:

    1600 Penn (0%)
    The New Normal (40%)
    Guys with Kids (40%)
    Go On (80%)
    Parks & Recreation (100%)
    Hannibal (50%)
    Whitney (50%)
    Community (55%)
    Deception (10%)
    Smash (0%)
    Up all Night (0%)

  • Cougar Town Forever

    @MichaelChickless

    Pretty much. Watched the pilot. Watched maybe 15 minutes of the 2nd episode, put it on pause, and then never unpaused it. 75 minutes is more than many people give most shows. Honestly, if it weren’t for the fact that I was intrigued by the idea of a TV show based on Hannibal Lecter, I probably wouldn’t have given it 1 minute.

    Getting back to renewal discussion, I do wonder if it would be feasible to bring back Hannibal, but possibly with a different show runner. That might be hard in this case. It should be ratings gold, but the show has definitely struggled.

  • Cougar Town Forever

    @ Rebecca

    I take umbrage with that. The biggest travesty was the cancellation of Arrested Development. It was such a travesty that people have moved Heaven and Earth to bring it back from the dead!

  • Jane

    He doesn’t have Deception at 0% because at this point, Hannibal isn’t doing any better that it was and that doesn’t have a 0% chance.

  • Ultima

    @Dan
    the first for NBC since?

    Will & Grace.

    Wow.

  • DaxJackson

    I hope they let Community die or bring back Dan Harmon.

  • Pepper

    I actually see Hannibal being shelved until midseason. It’s a critical darling, and its ratings are on par with the rest of NBC’s horrible ratings. I don’t watch and am not invested in its return, but I wouldn’t be surprised if NBC kept it on the table.

  • MichaelChickless

    @Iggy “How long would you need to sit through The Firm or The Mob Doctor to decide it’s not good?”
    .
    I didn’t like the female lead in TMD, so about 10 minutes! I kept watching The Firm all the way, thinking it might eventually go somewhere.

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