NBC: Final Predictions For 'Community,' 'Hannibal,' 'Go On,' 'Parks & Rec,' 'Whitney' & More

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

May 7th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2013 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

    Robert Bill
1600 Penn NBC 0% 0%
Deception NBC 20% 0%
Guys With Kids NBC 5% 0%
Up All Night NBC 0% 0%
The New Normal NBC 20% 25%
Hannibal NBC 25% 30%
Whitney NBC 55% 51%
Go On NBC 58% 55%
Community NBC 52% 60%
Parks & Recreation NBC 100% 100%

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5/8 Update: Deception has been canceled.

5/9 Updates: Parks & Recreation has been renewed. Whitney has been canceled. 1600 Penn has been canceled. Guys With Kids and Up All Night have both been canceled.

5/10 Update: Go On & The New Normal have been canceled. Community has been renewed.
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In what's a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final NBC predictions. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

I'm anticipating one or more misses on my predictions for Whitney, Go On and Community. I don't think all three will be renewed, but I don't think all three will be canceled either. I think each individual show is slightly more likely to be renewed than canceled, so that gets me to my slightly positive guesses on all three.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Smash canceled 0.63
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
1600 Penn* :oops: 0.74
Guys With Kids* :oops: 0.81
The New Normal* :cry: :cry: 0.81
Community :| :| :| 0.86
Whitney* :| :| :| 0.86
Go On* :| :| :| 0.90
Deception* :oops: 0.91
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Hannibal :| :| :| 0.94
Grimm (F) renewed 1.03
Parenthood* renewed 1.08
Parks & Recreation* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Law & Order: SVU renewed 1.19
Chicago Fire renewed 1.33
The Office final season 1.37
Revolution renewed 1.50
Up All Night :oops: ?

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Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

 
  • Yessir

    I agree with Iggy. Go On, Parks and TNN will be renewed. Community and Whitney will be spackle.

  • Brandon

    I would honestly be a little surprised if NBC did anything but bring back Community for a final 13. I don’t have any evidence beyond a gut feeling and the fact that the show will be cheaper next season minus Chevy Chase (likely the most expensive actor on the show). It’s the way NBC has been treating their low-rated but cult-favorite shows (Chuck, 30 Rock) these last few years. That, plus it’s a Sony show.

    My predictions:

    1600 Penn: 0%
    Deception: 0%
    Up All Night: 0%
    Guys With Kids: 10%
    The New Normal: 15%
    Hannibal: 25%
    Whitney: 35%
    Go On: 75%
    Community: 85%
    Parks & Rec: 100%

  • D. Fernandes

    Bill, how come your prediction for Hannibal is to be canceled when the show has a Renex/Cancel index of 0.94? Aren’t the shows that near 1.0 on the index presumed safe? Best Regards

  • MichaelChickless

    Is it too late to bring back Outsourced?

  • Scott M

    Parks – 100%

    Community – 75%
    Go On – 60%
    Hannibal – 60% (Apparently I’m the only one to think this)
    Whitney – 40%
    New Normal – 25%
    Deception – 10%
    Guys With Kids – 10%

    1600 Penn – 0%
    Up All Night – 0%
    Smash – 0% (Only on here if some poeple don’t considered it officially cancelled yet)

  • Jason C.

    @David “According to tvwise, Guys with Kids might just manage a renewal which I could see happening.”

    How accurate have they been in the past? Do they have an actual legitimate source, or is that just talk? I’m not trying to sound like a jerk, but I really don’t see how Guys with Kids can pull it off, and I’m genuinely curious.

  • Connor Murdock

    1600 Penn – 0%
    Deception – 0% Full 22 Episode Season / 25% Partial 13 Episode Season
    Guys with Kids – 0%
    Up All Night – 0%
    The New Normal – 25% Full 22 Episode Season / 50% Partial 13 Episode Season
    Whitney – 25% Full 22 Episode Season / 50% Partial 13 Episode Season
    Hannibal – 50% Full 22 Episode Season / 75% Partial 13 Episode Season
    Go On – 50% Full 22 Episode Season / 75% Partial 13 Episode Season
    Community – 75% Full 22 Episode Season / 100% Partial 13 Episode Season
    Parks & Recreation – 100% Full Season

  • Carmen

    First, I think that Community will get some kind of a pickup for next season. What exactly they (NBC) does specifically with regard to scheduling will depend on what CBS does with the Big Bang Theory.
    If CBS leaves TBBT alone at 8:00 Thursday (which I definitely think they should), then NBC might as well leave Community in that spot also.

    At this point, what does it matter. Community would get the additional episodes it needs and the network would avoid throwing something else to the wolves. At least, NBC pretty much knows what Community will do in that spot.

    It TBBT is moved by CBS, then Community can come back as mid season filler / spackle. Heck, maybe even fall spackle

  • David

    @Jason C.

    I’m a bit sketchy about that as well. The site does seem to be quite reputable, and the article writer, Patrick Munn generally seems to get things right. I would be surprised if it didn’t return, and I to am wondering if the show can pull it of, but it is NBC, so anything could happen.

  • Chris J

    @ rob60990

    I’d swap Revolution and Parenthood in your schedule

    @ DaxJackson

    YES!

    NBC please bring back Dan Harmon to Community! The ratings will go through the roof.

    I love Community, but there is no reason for it to come back if it’s writing is going to continue to be weak. If the current writers can somehow make the story for a 5th season work I guess it wouldn’t be bad, but I have a feeling a 5th season could be worse than the current season. So in my opinion Community should only be renewed if they can secure Dan Harmon.

    Go On, could potentially grow next year and it had a lot of good exposure this year. Of the bubble shows I think it’s the most likely to return.

    I really hope NBC doesn’t renew Whitney. The show is not funny, and if it’s renewed there stuck with it for 2 more low rated seasons. It’s season average was as bad as Animal Practice and Up All Night this season (and lower than Guys With Kids). It’s only going to go lower next year and the year after.

    NBC will probably renew all 3 of the above bubble shows sadly, but they really should just renew Go On and maybe Community. They have Betty White as well that they can use as simple spackle so they don’t need to renew as many low rate scripted shows.

  • David

    Something to point out on Hannibal is that it does really well in its increase from Live/Same Day ratings to C3. Since the C3 rating is what’s actually sold to advertisers, this is the rating that matters.

    Here are the ratings for the 3-week period for which C3 ratings are available for Hannibal:

    LS: 1.57
    C3: 1.92

    That makes for an index of 1.22 (1.92/1.57). Apply that to the following weeks where we only have Live/Same and you come out to an average of about 1.61, pretty solid for NBC.

    Combine this will what others have said about critical acclaim, low cost, minimal risk for only 13 episodes, etc and i think Hannibal has a decent shot at renewal

  • Jim

    Decption was the higher than Hannibal, Smash, Do No Harm

    I know it will most likely get cancelled, but it should have a better shot than Hannibal

  • Chris J

    @David
    @Jason C

    Guys With Kids has done better than Whitney, Up All Night, and Community this season, so I’m not surprised that Patrick Munn thinks it could win a renewal over Whitney and Community. Honestly its funnier and the critics like it more than Whitney.

    It could also potentially grow next season with the right lead in (Sean Hayes Happiness maybe?)

    I find it funny that Fox is coming out with “Dads” next season which is pretty much a single cam version of GWK.

  • DM

    Did Up All Night even air this season?

  • Scott M

    @Chris J

    What do you mean Guys with Kids has done better? It’s 7 epsiode ratings it did after the new year were: 1.7, 1.3, 1.1, 1.2, 1.0, 1.0, and 1.1. That’s below pretty much every other comedy, except 1600 Penn. When it was paired with Whitney it got beat everytime.

    I don’t like either’s chances, but there’s no way it makes any sense to renew GWK and cancel Whitney.

    (Keep in mind I have not seen either show and don’t care to…. I’m just looking at the numbers.)

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Guys With Kids has done better than Whitney, Up All Night, and Community this season”

    If only that were true, but it’s not.

  • Ultima

    @Yessir
    I agree with Iggy. Go On, Parks and TNN will be renewed. Community and Whitney will be spackle.

    As if nothing was wrong with NBC’s sitcom situation?

  • Ultima

    @Bill Gorman
    “Guys With Kids has done better than Whitney, Up All Night, and Community this season”

    If only that were true, but it’s not.

    He’s right in saying Guys With Kids has the best ratings out of the four shows. He’s wrong in thinking that fall ratings matter.

  • Jason C.

    @Chris J

    Yeah except it hasn’t done better. Also, critics’ opinions on either show and the fact you think it’s funnier is not really relevant.

    Still don’t see how GWK can pull it off.

  • Ram510

    RENEW GUYS WITH KIDS!!!!!!!!!!!!

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