NBC: Final Predictions For 'Community,' 'Hannibal,' 'Go On,' 'Parks & Rec,' 'Whitney' & More

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

May 7th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2013 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

    Robert Bill
1600 Penn NBC 0% 0%
Deception NBC 20% 0%
Guys With Kids NBC 5% 0%
Up All Night NBC 0% 0%
The New Normal NBC 20% 25%
Hannibal NBC 25% 30%
Whitney NBC 55% 51%
Go On NBC 58% 55%
Community NBC 52% 60%
Parks & Recreation NBC 100% 100%

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5/8 Update: Deception has been canceled.

5/9 Updates: Parks & Recreation has been renewed. Whitney has been canceled. 1600 Penn has been canceled. Guys With Kids and Up All Night have both been canceled.

5/10 Update: Go On & The New Normal have been canceled. Community has been renewed.
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In what's a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final NBC predictions. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

I'm anticipating one or more misses on my predictions for Whitney, Go On and Community. I don't think all three will be renewed, but I don't think all three will be canceled either. I think each individual show is slightly more likely to be renewed than canceled, so that gets me to my slightly positive guesses on all three.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Smash canceled 0.63
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
1600 Penn* :oops: 0.74
Guys With Kids* :oops: 0.81
The New Normal* :cry: :cry: 0.81
Community :| :| :| 0.86
Whitney* :| :| :| 0.86
Go On* :| :| :| 0.90
Deception* :oops: 0.91
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Hannibal :| :| :| 0.94
Grimm (F) renewed 1.03
Parenthood* renewed 1.08
Parks & Recreation* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Law & Order: SVU renewed 1.19
Chicago Fire renewed 1.33
The Office final season 1.37
Revolution renewed 1.50
Up All Night :oops: ?

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Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

 
  • Ultima

    @DM
    Did Up All Night even air this season?

    Yes, it was on Thursday nights during the fall. They had ordered 13 episodes, but cut that back to 11 (all of which aired) and planned on doing five multi-cam episodes of the show. That ended up never happening.

  • Ultima

    @Chris J
    I find it funny that Fox is coming out with “Dads” next season which is pretty much a single cam version of GWK.

    Dads is multi-cam.

  • Ultima

    @Carmen
    What exactly they (NBC) does specifically with regard to scheduling will depend on what CBS does with the Big Bang Theory.

    NBC releases their schedule before CBS.

  • rainbowtwizzler

    lol Deception at 20%. More like 5%.

  • Tom Shaw

    1600 Penn 0%
    Up All Night 0%
    Guys With Kids 15% (Maybe NBC wants some live action Friday/Voice gap block?)
    Deception 20% (Honestly, given NBC’s numbers without The Voice, it’s performance was only mediocre. That said, NBC doesn’t have a ton of drama room.)
    Hannibal 25% (Supposedly very cheap. Ratings aren’t good though and NBC doesn’t have room.)
    Community 49% (I’m the High Priest of 88, but 84 isn’t that far off, already has a cable deal, and Sony could air something on Comedy Central.)
    The New Normal 51% (Second chance, Ryan Murphy, showrunner relations. It’s a terrible business decision.)
    Whitney 66% (Numbers aren’t terrible, but everyone involved with the show is assuming its dead.)
    Go On 75% (Second chance, numbers aren’t terrible.)
    Parks & Rec 100% (If anything hits in Fall, it wouldn’t shock me if its announced in Feb or so that its ending next May.)

  • DramaticFlair

    @CougarTownForever, your name is CougarTownForever which indicates to me you haven’t the slightest clue what good writing entails. I think, Hannibal is in a hard place competing with Elementary and Scandal (and that one week with the NFL draft). It’s a very different show, it involves cannibalism, and that may not appeal to everyone. Like you for example, that does not mean it’s not good or the writing was bad. That’s a very close-minded way to look at things. The writing on the show is brilliant and the cinematography is something to be rivaled, in my opinion of course. The storyline isn’t weak either, it’s intricate and it’s building towards something. I’d hope to watch it unfold but who knows now. I will however, always have the books.

  • Uofmguy423

    Revolution will probably stay where it’s at on Mondays after The Voice. It seems to be stable at 2.0 and that’s pretty good for a drama on NBC.

  • Greg

    1600 Penn – 0%
    Deception – 0%
    Hannibal – 10%
    Guys with Kids – 15%
    Whitney – 25%
    The New Normal – 35%
    Go On – 45%
    Community – 55%
    Parks and Recreation – 100%

    I’m thinking Sony will work their magic and get a final season for Community. The other comedies are very up in the air, though I’m willing to bet that they’re elimating the Wednesday comedy block now that they have five returning dramas instead of just three like last year. They might try two new comedies on Tuesdays and dump The New Normal and Go On on Thursdays along with Community and Parks or just premiere two new comedies and cancel both GO and TNN.

  • joe

    Happy P&R has good odds, id predict 100% too… Kind of wish whitney was higher but i wouldnt miss it. Cancel everything else!

  • Chris J

    @Scott M
    @Bill Gorman
    @Ultima
    @Jason C.

    Guys With Kids’s season average was a 1.3 versus Community, Whitney’s, Animal Practice ad Up All Night, which are at 1.2 for their season averages.

    The fact is that all of NBC’s comedies are in the same situation are literally all barely tenths away from each other.

    The factors of renewal will probably rest on secondary factors such as syndication and the talent involved. Community has syndication, Go On has Matthew Perry, and Whitney is a 2nd season show, hence why all 3 are more likely to be renewed then the other shows that match their ratings.

  • Jonay

    Why is Go On in the 55% 58% range it can not stand on it own two feet with out the voice???

  • Scott M

    @Chris J

    If NBC gave equal weight to ratings that happened in October as they would to ratings that happen in March, then your point would be valid. It would also mean that Go On and The New Normal would be slam dunk renewals.

    I guarantee NBC will not be using ratings from last fall as what they can expect ratings wise going forward.

    I do agree with you that secondary factors are going to come into play as a lot of these shows are very close, so just about any of those shows have a decent chance to be renewed or cancelled.

  • DuMont

    Canceled:
    1600 Penn
    Deception
    Go On
    Guys With Kids
    Up All Night

    Renewed:
    Community (13 episodes)
    Hannibal (13 episodes)
    Parks & Recreation
    The New Normal
    Whitney

  • jimmybing

    Guys, if Hannibal comes back (and I hope it does), it’ll only be a 13-episode season. This was set up while the show was in development. Fuller has talked about this in interviews.

  • Stacy

    Part of me would like TNN be renewed just to annoy the “family values” crowd.

    The other part of me couldn’t care less if it’s cancelled, as it’s just not a very good show.

  • SJ

    tvwise is a UK site. How can they possibly have more “inside intel” than a US-based TV website like Deadline?!

    FWIW, Deadline also claims that Guys with Kids has a better chance than Whitney. I still think both are goners, but if NBC had had to pick one, it would have been GWK… in my opinion.

  • Josh

    Up All Night: cancelled
    1600 Penn: cancelled
    Deception: renewed
    Hannibal: cancelled
    Whitney: renewed
    Guys With Kids: renewed
    The New Normal: cancelled
    Go On: renewed
    Community: renewed for final season
    Parks and Rec: renewed final season

  • Anna Bones Clarkwood

    1600 Penn 0%
    Deception 5% IIRC, this was low rated but didn’t crash & was stable. That said, to get this to 4 seasons is virtually impossible & NBC does well drama wise.
    Guys With Kids 5% TV actors we like but the show we don’t watch. Jimmy is taking over Late Night, the others don’t need to be satisfied except via pilot cast opportunities.
    Up All Night 0% Take it this way, SMASH, which is way to costly but regulate to Sta burn off has better chances & those are none.
    The New Normal 25% only for political &/or Ryan Murphy reasonings, but he was given a 2 year GLEE handshake & AHS will keep him busy as well.
    Hannibal 75% 3 seasons of 13ep & done is the plan & it’s reported to not cost that much esp since it’s going to air into summer, even though it didn’t have to.
    Whitney NBC 55% This could be NBC’s answer to CBS’s ROE, spackle until syndication.
    Go On 55% Matthew Perry might get another season…think Last Man Standing/Reba
    Community 75% If/when more than just P&R is renewed, Community should be 1st in line.
    Parks & Recreation 100%

  • Tommy Mickens

    My predictions:

    1600 Penn – 0%
    Up All Night – 1%
    Deception – 5%
    Guys With Kids – 10%
    Hannibal – 48%
    Whitney – 49%
    The New Normal – 51%
    Go On – 70%
    Community – 80%
    Parks & Recreation – 100%

    My reasoning has to do with a word that new guy here loves: spackling. I think there’ll be a few shows renewed for only a short amount of eps (like 13). In fact, except for P&R, everything in this list that ends up renewed may only have a short order.

    My reasoning against Whitney is that it doesn’t really have two full seasons worth of eps numbers-wise, so if NBC renews it, moving it into a season 3 is usually a commitment to get it to syndication and they’d need even more eps than most season 3 shows to get Whitney there. So while it may look more solid than TNN, there’s also a bigger commitment involved in renewing it, whereas it’d be much easier for them to use TNN as season 2 spackle and cancel it if the numbers don’t improve as it will still be so far away from syndication so they won’t feel pressure to keep it going just to get it to syndication numbers.

    However, Whitney has the edge in being multi-cam and NBC could keep it just to keep a multi-cam, but I am still leery of them renewing it.

    The New Normal could be cancelled along with Whitney, but if one is renewed, I’m guessing on TNN. The network likes the show – just look at how they scheduled it after The Voice at the end of its run even after its dip to 0.7. And it did rise high at the end. And if you look at the complete season, its average is higher than it would seem looking only at its 2013 numbers. And there’s Ryan Murphy. And there’s politics that NBC may like to keep a gay sitcom. The last five or so years NBC has tried to be the “quirky, edgy” network and TNN helps them with that goal much more than Whitney.

    I would be surprised if any of Go On, Community or P&R is cancelled, when NBC can at the least give them short ep orders for spackle (and needs *something* for spackle).

  • Tom

    1600 Penn
    Community
    Go On
    Parks and Recreation

    The rest to be cancelled.

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