NBC: Final Predictions For 'Community,' 'Hannibal,' 'Go On,' 'Parks & Rec,' 'Whitney' & More

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

May 7th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2013 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

    Robert Bill
1600 Penn NBC 0% 0%
Deception NBC 20% 0%
Guys With Kids NBC 5% 0%
Up All Night NBC 0% 0%
The New Normal NBC 20% 25%
Hannibal NBC 25% 30%
Whitney NBC 55% 51%
Go On NBC 58% 55%
Community NBC 52% 60%
Parks & Recreation NBC 100% 100%

-
5/8 Update: Deception has been canceled.

5/9 Updates: Parks & Recreation has been renewed. Whitney has been canceled. 1600 Penn has been canceled. Guys With Kids and Up All Night have both been canceled.

5/10 Update: Go On & The New Normal have been canceled. Community has been renewed.
-
In what's a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final NBC predictions. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

I'm anticipating one or more misses on my predictions for Whitney, Go On and Community. I don't think all three will be renewed, but I don't think all three will be canceled either. I think each individual show is slightly more likely to be renewed than canceled, so that gets me to my slightly positive guesses on all three.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
-
For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Smash canceled 0.63
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
1600 Penn* :oops: 0.74
Guys With Kids* :oops: 0.81
The New Normal* :cry: :cry: 0.81
Community :| :| :| 0.86
Whitney* :| :| :| 0.86
Go On* :| :| :| 0.90
Deception* :oops: 0.91
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Hannibal :| :| :| 0.94
Grimm (F) renewed 1.03
Parenthood* renewed 1.08
Parks & Recreation* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Law & Order: SVU renewed 1.19
Chicago Fire renewed 1.33
The Office final season 1.37
Revolution renewed 1.50
Up All Night :oops: ?

-
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

-
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

 
  • Ultima

    @Chris J
    Guys With Kids’s season average was a 1.3 versus Community, Whitney’s, Animal Practice ad Up All Night, which are at 1.2 for their season averages.

    The season average for GWK is 1.4 actually. It’s also irrelevant. Fall ratings are basically meaningless.

  • Ultima

    @Tom
    1600 Penn

    The rest to be cancelled.

    I think you misspelled whatever show you were going for! ;)

  • Dan S

    If NBC renews any low rated shows like Go On, GWK or Whitney then they should go back & resurrect Harry’s Law. That show not only had similar numbers in the 18-49 demo it actually had an audience. My point being is NBC is going to cut their losses & move on with the new Michael J Fox comedy & very likely the new James Spader drama Black List. Word is its 1 of the highest tested pilots in the last 10 yrs for NBC. Question is do they schedule it on Mon at 10pm or Tues at 9pm after The Voice ? With other shows waiting in the wings like Dracula & Crossbones they’ll be cutting the deadwood.

  • Eliot

    MY RENEWAL/CANCELLATION PREDICTIONS:

    1600 Penn (cancelled)
    Deception (cancelled)
    Guys With Kids (cancelled)
    Up All Night (cancelled)
    Hannibal (cancelled) :(
    Go On (cancelled)

    The New Normal (renewed)
    Whitney (renewed)
    Community (renewed)
    Parks and Recreation (renewed)

  • Cougar Town Forever

    @DramaticFlair

    In one sentence, you managed to not only insult me but also my beloved Cougar Town.

    Arguing over whether Hannibal is “good” or “bad” isn’t going to get either of us anywhere. You’ll say good, I’ll say bad, and this could go on forever. The ratings don’t lie however, and they have gone from “pretty decent for NBC” to “Uh oh”.

    Time will tell how Hannibal does, but I am inclined to say that the drops are not over yet. I respect that NBC tried to do something different and went with a show that is pushing at the limits of network TV. But I stand by my statement that, based on what I saw, the show is not as good as its premise.

    While the show has its fans (much like Smash did last year), the ratings keep dipping. We will see where they stop, but at this point I am inclined to say that the show will struggle to keep its numbers high enough for renewal.

  • Stacy

    1600 Penn – Cancelled
    Deception – Cancelled
    Hannibal – Renewed
    Guys with Kids – Renewed
    Whitney – Cancelled
    The New Normal – Cancelled
    Go On – Renewed
    Community – Cancelled (sadly… would love to see this renewed)
    Parks and Recreation – Renewed

  • Oliver

    @Dan S
    Harry’s Law did worse in 18-49 than any of them. It was getting 0.8 in 18-49 towards the end of its second season.

  • Mari

    No Hannibal! I need it to be renewed.

  • Dan

    Whitney has one thing going for it over Guys With Kids, syndication prospects. Same reason why Last Man Standing has a better shot at renewal than Malibu Country.

    Plus Whitney was getting slightly better numbers than GWK in February so it would make more sense to dump GWK.

  • MDM

    Let Community die in peace. It’s over.

  • smg77

    @ Stacy I agree! I don’t like TNN but I hope it gets renewed just so the morons at the Parents Television Council will howl.

  • Wallaby2012

    Parks & recreation over Hannibal???????
    What mindlessness.

  • chris

    The logical move would be to cancel GWK and renew Whitney but if logical was always the way to go, then Seinfeld wouldn’t have lasted more than a season. Is GWK Seinfeld? No. Will it be close to Seinfeld? Who knows but I do know NBC needs good family multi cams and Whitney isn’t a family show. Putting it with the Sean Hayes pilot would make as much sense as putting a multi cam with a single cam. GWK is a perfect fit with that show instead.

  • David

    @Wallaby2012

    Why is it mindlessness when Parks and Rec is NBC’s highest rated comedy that isn’t ending. Fair enough, the honor of highest rated comedy on NBC may not be great, but I think NBC would rather have that instead of consistent 1.0′s.

  • Rave Mystery

    I want more Whitney but Only NBC knows what they are going to renew and just because a person likes a certain show and tries to compare and justify it doesn’t it could return for another season.

  • Connor Murdock

    @Tom

    you are delusional 1600 Penn stands 0% chance of being renewed!

  • sofaspud

    @ Robin

    Why is it that if someone watches 1.25 episodes of a show and loves it, that is acceptable. However if someone watches 1.25 episodes and hates it, then they didn’t give it enough time to develop? How is that even logical?

    Like Cougar Town Forever said, HANNIBAL is just not very good. I’ve watched all the episodes now (except #4 online) and it just seems to get sillier and gratuitously bleaker as we go on. I wanted to enjoy the show, but it just became more of a chore than enjoyment. Sorry Robin, but it’s no BATES MOTEL or THE FOLLOWING. Hell, it’s not even KOLCHAK THE NIGHT STALKER. And considering the drop off in viewers, millions feel similarly.

  • Jared

    Hannibal is a case of great show wrong network. NBC would be dumb to renew this series with its current ratings. Why not renew Deception which was getting the same ratings but I can imagine was nowhere near the budget as Hannibal.

  • jillian

    Considering all the social media attention from Community, despite my personal feelings it has lost it’s spark I think it’ll be renewed for fifth (maybe shorter) season. Hannibal I want to like the show but it’s just too dark, I don’t like the direction it went following the 3rd episode & I really can’t picture that show lasting longer than 2 seasons because of storylines. I love Will Graham more than I care for Hannibal in it. So I’m less convinced it will be renwed but it depends on what other pilots they can risk putting in that timeslot. If there’s nothing that is a sure thing then maybe Hannibal will make it. IMO it should have been a cable network show, not on NBC because of the dark tones & extent of deaths.

  • stevenD

    Monday: 8-10 The Voice/Sing Off/The Voice
    10-11 Blacklist
    Blacklist apparently tested really well (Best in a decade for NBC), so they would prop it up. Crossbones could go here in the spring possibly too.

    Tuesday: 8-9 The Voice/Betty White/The Voice
    9-10 The Sixth Gun/Assistance and Brenda Forever
    10-11 Revolution

    The Sixth Gun is a Western, so it will have appeal and give Revolution a good lead in. Put comedies in the spring, and these two go well together.

    Wednesday: 8-9 Sean Saves the World/John Mulaney show (or another multi-cam)
    9-10 After Hours
    10-11 Chicago Fire
    Multi-cams will have mass appeal, especially with Sean Hayes and Mulaney being known from SNL. After Hours can premiere after The Voice if that premieres for 3 nights like last year. Chicago Fire can stay put.

    Thursday: 8-8:30 Parks and Rec
    8:30-9 Community/About a Boy
    9-9:30 MJF
    9:30-10 About a Boy/Welcome to the Family
    10-11 Parenthood
    After being behind MJF for the fall, About a Boy should be able to stand on its own post olympics. Parenthood completes the family theme, so in 2014-2015 this night could be all family shows.

    Friday: *Starts Halloween*
    8-9 Dracula/Celebrity Apprentice
    9-10 Grimm
    10-11 SVU
    If this night is promoted all October decently, Dracula should lead off as its new. SVU could fill in for any drama that fails during the week, so put it here as a back up as it could move quickly. The Apprentice feels like a show that could do well Fridays

    Repeats Saturday

    Sunday: Mid-season (Post olympics)
    7-8 Dateline NBC
    8-10 The Biggest Loser
    10-11 Crisis
    The Biggest Loser debuted to a 3.0 on Sunday this year, so it should be able to get a mid 2 on Sundays. That would provide a good lead in for Crisis, which will already be getting promoted duing the Olympics

    Also renew:
    Hannibal (Back up or summer series)
    Whitney or Go On (Back up if a comedy fails)

    Any thoughts?

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures