NBC: Final Predictions For 'Community,' 'Hannibal,' 'Go On,' 'Parks & Rec,' 'Whitney' & More

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

May 7th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:



This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2013 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, Robert and I play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.

Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:

    Robert Bill
1600 Penn NBC 0% 0%
Deception NBC 20% 0%
Guys With Kids NBC 5% 0%
Up All Night NBC 0% 0%
The New Normal NBC 20% 25%
Hannibal NBC 25% 30%
Whitney NBC 55% 51%
Go On NBC 58% 55%
Community NBC 52% 60%
Parks & Recreation NBC 100% 100%

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5/8 Update: Deception has been canceled.

5/9 Updates: Parks & Recreation has been renewed. Whitney has been canceled. 1600 Penn has been canceled. Guys With Kids and Up All Night have both been canceled.

5/10 Update: Go On & The New Normal have been canceled. Community has been renewed.
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In what's a recurrent (and boring) theme for our final guesses, Robert and I have no significant differences in our final NBC predictions. However, your guesses may be quite different, let us know in the comments.

I'm anticipating one or more misses on my predictions for Whitney, Go On and Community. I don't think all three will be renewed, but I don't think all three will be canceled either. I think each individual show is slightly more likely to be renewed than canceled, so that gets me to my slightly positive guesses on all three.

To address the picky commenters out there who'll otherwise whine "You just give percentages, you never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as "will be renewed" and those below 50% as "will be canceled" and you may interpret the "distance" from 50% as my level of confidence in the prediction.
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For those who'd like to review the last Renew / Cancel Index numbers I'll produce for the season, enjoy:

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 5, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Do No Harm* canceled 0.50
Smash canceled 0.63
Animal Practice* canceled 0.66
1600 Penn* :oops: 0.74
Guys With Kids* :oops: 0.81
The New Normal* :cry: :cry: 0.81
Community :| :| :| 0.86
Whitney* :| :| :| 0.86
Go On* :| :| :| 0.90
Deception* :oops: 0.91
30 Rock* final season complete 0.93
Hannibal :| :| :| 0.94
Grimm (F) renewed 1.03
Parenthood* renewed 1.08
Parks & Recreation* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
Law & Order: SVU renewed 1.19
Chicago Fire renewed 1.33
The Office final season 1.37
Revolution renewed 1.50
Up All Night :oops: ?

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Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

 
  • Cyrax86

    Poor Hannibal, Bryan Fuller, Ryan Murphy, Christina Applegate etc… So much trainwreck NBC caused this season. I cannot believe we’re six days away from the new NBC schedule and they still did not manage to officially cancel Up All Night.

  • Drew

    Please retain Hannibal. It’s the only show on NBC that isn’t dumbed down to the viewer. How is Revolution surviving when it has more plot holes than Swiss Cheese. Hannibal is fascinating as Dr Lecter becomes more sinister. Chicago Fire is just a CBS clone. Hannibal’s ratings will never be great because it attracts a select audience. NBC will probably still end up canceling it so they can replace with another ridiculous reality or judging show.

  • Nick

    Hannibal is a great show! I really hope that NBC will keep this show at least for another season. I think people haven’t properly discovered it yet, but I have high hopes. So incredible!!!!

  • samurai99

    Hannibal’s shot at renewal depends entirely on how much it’s special production deal actually matters. Since you guys don’t track that, I’m fine with the prediction.

    @Cougar Town Fever

    That reminds me of a question I’ve been meaning to ask this site: How bad were Arrested Developments numbers that Fox cancelled it? I want to know how justified the whining has been.

  • Ultima

    @Cyrax
    they still did not manage to officially cancel Up All Night

    Why are people so concerned with official cancellations? Is this your first season following these things?

  • LaDouche

    Hannibal will be renewed. I’m surprised that tvbythenumbers is saying anything else, because this will be one big mistake on their part.
    The show gets great reviews and the users love it, too. Just look at the imdb-rating. It has a better rating than Following or Bates Motel.

    Once they put the show on Netflix the viewship will increase a lot.
    NBC knows that.

  • Anna

    Cancelling Hannibal will only prove how rubbish a network NBC is. It’s literally the only good thing they’ve got going for them at the moment.

  • Cyrax86

    @Ultima, No not at all, I’m just disgusted at how Up All Night was treated, I was looking forward to the multi-cam transition but NBC did not even officially comment on that one episode they were to film…

  • John

    renew parks and recreation, go on, and community and just cancel the rest

  • Oliver

    How would NBC benefit if they announced UAN was cancelled?

    I think the loss of a lead was confirmation enough.

  • AJS

    My guesses:

    1600 Penn 0%
    Deception 0%
    Guys With Kids 0%
    Up All Night 0%
    The New Normal 0%
    Hannibal 10%
    Whitney 25%
    Go On 30%
    Community 50%
    Parks & Recreation 100%

    Personally, I think they should cancel all the low rated comedies (bar P&R) and try something new – they can’t do much worse and they might find a hit (for NBC)

  • Carmen

    @ Ultima

    “NBC releases their schedule before CBS.”

    Yes, but it doesn’t have to be set in stone. They can “commit” to having it (Community) air on Thurs, and if CBS throws a curve at them via a an unexpected scheduling change for TBBT they can quietly adjust (during the 4-5 months) between upfronts and actual airing

    The points being made are.

    1) Community will probably be renewed and if it is,

    2) It would be foolish of NBC to not keep it opposite TBBT on Thurs. at this point in its (and TBBT’s) life cycle.

  • Oli

    Looking at the predictions on TV Wise for last year is interesting everything they predicted in the final round-up turned out to be true apart from a mid-season renewal for Harry’s Law…

    This year they’ve predicted for NBC: Renewal for Parks & Recs, Go On, Guys With Kids & Hannibal.

  • Ram510

    Personally I feel Guys With Kids is the best new comedy on broadcast this season! I really hope it comes back cause if it doesn’t it’ll be the only bubble show I’m most sad about.

    @ DramaticFlair

    You do not want to start a Cougar Town war today! Cougar Town is a great show (almost wish it was in NBC so it could really make it to 6 seasons and a movie) and lets just leave it at that.

  • Brendan

    WHITNEY RENEW!!!!!!!!

  • David Howell

    Parks is 110% safe. Up All Night is 110% bearchow. 1600 Penn is “only” 100% bearchow.

    I don’t see how either Deception or Hannibal get renewed, as they’re #6 and #7 (in some order) on the drama totem pole, and so NBC don’t need them.

    Let’s look at the case for each decision for each drama, in alphabetical order.

    COMMUNITY
    Renew – has a very advertiser-friendly audience (young, highly educated, lots of earnings potential); putting a new sitcom against TBBT would basically be like setting the development costs on fire (if not worse – at least a huge firestorm could be covered by NBC’s winning news division!); sometimes still pops to Parks numbers, and drags Parks further up with it.
    Cancel – gets absolutely pitiful numbers as often as not; give it a season 5 and the fanbase pressure for a season 6 will be immense, even if there’s no good justification for one.

    GO ON
    Renew – has done less badly than the other shows, and still gets a pop with the big lead-in; cancellation would basically be admitting the fall narrative of “NBC is BACK!” was based on Wall Street levels of dishonesty.
    Cancel – It’s done a Smash Crash inside of one season (even Smash needed two!).

    GUYS WITH KIDS
    Renew – It’s a multicam that’s not Whitney; Jimmy Fallon political considerations; holds on to most or sometimes all of its lead-in.
    Cancel – Said lead-in is atrocious, and GWK sometimes goes down from that; is the Tonight Show contract already the Jimmy Fallon politics sorted?

    THE NEW NORMAL
    Renew – Ryan Murphy politics; arguably contributes to a positive opinion of NBC in “blue” markets.
    Cancel – The ratings are even worse than the rest of the bunch; arguably contributes to a negative opinion of NBC in “red” markets.

    WHITNEY
    Renew – It’s a multicam; it’s not doing quite as horrifically as many of these shows; syndication is vaguely in sight.
    Cancel – By “vaguely in sight” I mean “you have to commit to a 44-episode order with horrific ratings and then somehow hope someone wants it in stripped syndication for some reason”; critically reviled.

    I’d renew Community as a sacrificial lamb against TBBT and cancel everything else. NBC will renew at least two more, and thus continue an impressive record of somehow losing to a Fox that don’t even get big numbers from Idol anymore.

  • Diana

    I have not been keeping up with ratings this season, but I hope you’re wrong about Guys With Kids, ’cause I really like it.

  • Potato

    @AJS

    “Personally, I think they should cancel all the low rated comedies (bar P&R) and try something new – they can’t do much worse and they might find a hit (for NBC)”

    But they could! They could do so much worse! They could do as bad as animal practice, or the spring ratings for TNN! If they cancel everything, that will also foster viewer resentment.

  • Kyle R

    @samurai99

    I don’t think people were mad because the numbers didn’t justify cancellation, they probably did. I think they were mad because FOX clearly had no idea how to market the show and moved it all over the schedule. I remember seeing an advertisement for season 2 during American Idol and thinking “I can’t believe that show was nominated for any Emmys, it looks terrible”. Two years later, I watched it and thought it was brilliant. FOX also did a notoriously awful job marketing Firefly.

  • Kyle R

    TvWise was fairly accurate in their final “buzz” last seasons, with the exceptions of saying that Harry’s Law would be renewed for midseason and that Whitney would be cancelled (they also implied that Law and Order: SVU would be canceled if Chicago Fire was picked up, but they didn’t outright say it, so they get a pass). That’s really worrying as a Community fan. I’ve been pretty sure it’s going to return but I’m not so sure now. I hope we at least get a wrap-up movie to get it to 88 episodes.

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