ABC Renew/Cancel Wrap: 'Body Of Proof,' 'Happy Endings,' 'Malibu Country,' 'Red Widow' Canceled; 'Last Man Standing,' 'The Neighbors,' 'Nashville,' 'Castle,' 'Revenge' Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 14th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


sleeping-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 12, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Happy Endings (some F) canceled 0.49
Don't Trust The B in Apt 23* canceled 0.50
Red Widow canceled 0.54
Last Resort* canceled 0.57
Zero Hour* canceled 0.58
Private Practice* canceled 0.63
Malibu Country* (F) canceled 0.65
666 Park Avenue* canceled 0.68
The Family Tools canceled 0.70
Body Of Proof canceled 0.72
Last Man Standing* (F) renewed 0.74
The Neighbors* renewed 0.87
Nashville renewed 0.92
Revenge renewed 0.93
Suburgatory renewed 1.00
Castle  renewed 1.08
The Middle renewed 1.10
How To Live With Your Parents canceled 1.12
Once Upon A Time renewed 1.22
Scandal renewed 1.42
Grey's Anatomy  renewed 1.52
Modern Family renewed 2.02

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The Cancellation Bear went 15-2 on his ABC predictions over the course of the 2012-13 season. (vs. 21-1 in the 2011-12 season)

The bear missed on the predicted renewals of How To Live With Your Parents and Body Of Proof. BOP is the only show the bear's missed his prediction on two years in a row on opposite sides of the ledger. At least he's guaranteed to not go three in a row!

With that the cancellation bear bids the 2012-13 season adieu and begins his summer hibernation. The bear and his Renew/Cancel Index posts will return in September. Happy Summer!

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the "old" Fall predictions will carry over.

Want to know what the ABC Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2013

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.

 
  • tjw

    @Bill,

    Match the Nellie Andreeva quote with its appropriate show:

    “I’ve learned that producer XXX is actively shopping the drama series.”
    “As I hinted in my story from two weeks ago, XXX producer YYY has been exploring a play on cable or other platforms.”

    “I have now learned that the studio has had conversations with XXX about potentially picking up the show. Like its fellow brethren YYY and ZZZ, XXX has been looking to enter the original programming space.”
    “In addition to the usual suspects for such a Show — YYY and ZZZ — I hear also in the mix is XXX, which is in building mode, looking to join the ranks of cable networks offering original programming.”

    “Cancelling XXX at ABC was financially detrimental to YYY, which has incurred…deficits on the show and is making a lot of money off of it internationally”
    “XXX has an incentive to keep YYY going. The series, which started off great on ABC before quickly losing traction, is a big international seller for the studio.”

  • City Kitty

    Revenge :-D

    Nashville :-D

  • gerry

    a bit surprised by bop, but it wasn’t performing all that well and still had a ways to go for syndication, right?

    htlwyp was surprising, i thought it was doing alright. still not shocking.

    my abc shows are safe. i’m happy.

  • Boiler

    gerry,

    9 to 10 million viewers for BOP is not that well???

  • Ultima

    @Boiler
    9 to 10 million viewers for BOP is not that well?

    Total viewers are irrelevant for renewal prospects. Advertising revenue is based on performance in the Adults 18-49 demographic (or subsets thereof).

    Just because you don’t like that doesn’t mean that’s not how it works.

  • Tom Shaw

    Now that we’ve seen the schedule, BoP not getting another spackle renewal makes more sense – all the existing dramas kept their slots and the slots that are free have been disasters for years – if they have a turkey until January, 1) it’s not worth eating unaired episodes, and 2) no one will be surprised.

    Similar deal with the comedies – if Neighbors can only make Friday and Suburgatory isn’t on the schedule at all, them not giving How to Live an order is no surprise.

    Again, we can’t predict scheduling ahead of time. Given how late pilots come in, not even the networks themselves know until late April at the earliest.

  • Anthony Parello (AP076)

    @ Robert Ford
    “Shows like this have decreasing returns, which isn’t surprising,”

    Have you heard of a little show called How I Met Your Mother?

  • Anthony Parello (AP076)

    Question, Did I miss something or was ABC different in that they did not announce possible spots that their mid-season shows may occupy?

    I actually do not fault them for not doing this as schedule status is often in flux. After all Rules of Engagement never found its way to Saturday (CBS) and Community (NBC) to Friday.

    Just curious.

  • Anthony Parello (AP076)

    Bill Gorman

    Am I correct in my five thread tally that The Cancellation Bear went 73-5-1 for the season.

    Any percentile math I have been incapable of since high school in the 80′s :-(

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Am I correct in my five thread tally that The Cancellation Bear went 73-5-1 for the season.”

    That matches my tally as well. That 0.936 record is almost exactly the same as last year’s .934.

  • V

    Well it was a battle between Neighbours & HowToLive and it looks like it won due to being ABC produced. But really tough call, they were both toss ups at the end.

  • Robert Ford

    @Anthony
    HIMYM started eight seasons ago. Several other post-Seinfeld/Friends shows also did OK, but my point is that it seems to be getting harder and harder for new shows in that format to draw a large audience. Happy Endings and Apartment 23 didn’t drastically decline when they were behind Modern Family, but didn’t attract the live audience to stand on their own.

    I’d also note that the other major counter-example is TBBT, which has the basic format I described also. But because the characters are Hollywood geeks, it’s a new take, and a successful one, given how popular being seen as a geek has recently become. It lets non-geeks feel smart that they get popular culture references depicted as geek references (It had plenty of genuinely geeky jokes in the first few seasons before the writers realized those weren’t actually needed for ratings), coupled with a treatment of the main male characters as effectively funny aliens who don’t understand these strange human social conventions.

    Happy Endings more or less follows the Friends format with seperate apartments, less focus on inter-group romance, and wackier hijinks Apt 23 tried a new take on the format (having one character be a con-artist, one be the con-artist’s stalker, one be a self-obsessed exaggeration of a real-life celebrity and the main character a foil), which I liked, but which clearly didn’t particularly appeal to the kinds of audiences who watch HIMYM and TBBT.

  • Robert Ford

    To be clear, I watch HIMYM and TBBT too (not deinigrating their fans, especially not HIMYM), but like Apt 23, Happy Endings (and HTLWYP although that one was growing on me), they are shows that I watch if I have a lot of down time, but don’t feel a strong urge to see them the same day or even the same month that they air.

  • Boiler

    Ultima,

    I know how it works but I am saying that the demo as it is now is irrelevant. Not as many young people and the people over 49 have the money. If BOP goes to cable and draws audience it does now it will eat into some network shows, hopefully ABC’s. There is no way 10 million watching a show should warrant cancellation. That is like saying we don’t care.

  • Holly

    @Boiler,

    I know how it works but I am saying that the demo as it is now is irrelevant.

    Irrelevant to what? To renewal/cancel decisions? Apparently not considering BoP was in fact canceled. To ad rates? Not based on any evidence we’ve seen. To your tastes in TV? Sure, I’ll give you that one.

  • Boiler

    Guess you didn’t bother to read the rest of my post where the demo is changing and TV or Nielsen hasn’t bothered to react to it. Oh well, 10 million cant be wrong and hopefully BOP ends up elsewhere

  • The End

    @Boiler
    @the demo is changing and TV or Nielsen hasn’t bothered to react to it.

    Lol. Networks rely on Nielsen because there’s nothing better out there. And it’s the tried and proven method of rating shows. Love or hate the system, it’s worked for many years.

  • CarShark

    @Boiler:

    It has nothing to do with volume, but rarity. It’s precisely because there aren’t many young people watching TV that advertisers (and therefore, broadcasters) target them so much.

  • Anthony Parello (AP076)

    @Boiler

    It is worth noting that BOP only attracted 10 million viewers when it followed Dancing with the Stars. Otherwise it averaged 7 million viewers. What do you think happens when a show moves to cable? Do you think it takes all its ABC viewers there.

    When Cougar Town went to TBS they lost roughly 55% of its total viewership.

    5 years or so ago when Law and Order:CI moved from NBC to USA it went from having an average of 10 million viewers to an average of 4 million.

  • Tracy

    If these networks order a full season of any show and then decide to cancel it without enough time to wrap the show up then they should have to let these shows have a 2 hr series finale for drama and 1 hr series finale for comedy… It’s such crap to get hooked on a show and the show never gets wrapped up!!!! Especially now since these shows come back for a few weeks and then go on a hiatus again… People are way too busy to follow tv when that happens and don’t realize the show is back on!!! I have seen many shows start out strong and then after a hiatus the show has lost many viewers and then people try to wait for it to be on Netflix and don’t even realize their fav show got chopped! It’s so frustrating to all of us and I would be ok as long as the show got a proper finale!

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