CW Renew/Cancel Wrap: 'Nikita,' 'The Carrie Diaries' Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 14th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


images

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 12, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult* canceled 0.35
90210 canceled 0.49
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) renewed 0.55
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries* renewed 0.73
Hart Of Dixie renewed 0.88
Beauty And The Beast renewed 0.92
Supernatural renewed 1.52
Arrow renewed 1.58
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.87

-
The Cancellation Bear went 9-1 on his CW predictions over the course of the 2012-13 season. (vs. 7-3 in the 2011-12 season)

But that one miss, the prediction that The Carrie Diaries would be canceled, was the biggest missed call of the season for the bear. It was the only show not a "toss up" at the end of the season, and the bear only gave it a 10% chance of renewal. The bear may ponder the reasons why that happened over the summer. Aw, who's he kidding, he's just going to sleep.

With that the cancellation bear bids the 2012-13 season adieu and begins his summer hibernation. The bear and his Renew/Cancel Index posts will return in September. Happy Summer!

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

-
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Simon

    Nikita = Renewed, love seeing that!

  • hammard

    It’s fair enough to be wrong on TCD as I still can’t work out how they’re going to fit all their old and new shows on the schedule.

  • James

    Thanks You CW! I really Hope Nikita gets a FULL Season 4! I wouldn’t mind if they had a full Final Season 4 but i think 6 episodes is just ridiculous to wrap up the storyline! When Nikita does Finish, it will be one of the Saddest Things Ever! Please, Even if your Not a Nikita Fan Please Watch This Friday at 8.7c on the CW! Its going to Be Awesome- Trust me when i say this! :) Many Thanks!

  • Tom Shaw

    “The bear may ponder the reasons why that happened over the summer.”

    What’s to ponder: we can’t predict Total Pilot Failure. If a crop of new shows comes out badly enough, all bets are off.

  • anon

    @hammard Fromwhat I’ve read, Nikita was renewed for only 6 new episodes and tbh who knows how long TCD’s new season will be (13? 22?), let alone how many eps beyond 13 that the CW bought of their new pilots (even Arrow & BATB began as only 13 ep purchases going into the 2012-13 season), so with all the shows from their Monday block (ie GG, 90210) now, and Tuesday open after HOD, and Friday open after Nikita, thus there are at least 4 hrs to potentially fill with new programming.

  • June

    Did Emily Owens outperform Carrie?

  • Wright

    TCD should have been cancelled. What a waste of an hour. They could have put The Selection in its place.

  • Frank

    Hibernation during the summer months is known as aestivation

  • pink

    James,why would people who are NOT Nikita fans watch this crap? I HATE the show and think it is dumb of you to tell people to watch even if they are not fans.

  • Alan

    The Carrie Diaries and The Vampire Diaries are the only CW shows I’ll watch now. Well, maybe if the pilots are good I’ll try one or two new shows.

  • gerry

    so happy the bear was wrong on this one. TCD is the most charming little show! hopefully its hulu and stream can bump its numbers up a little bit for s2. v happy about that one, indeed.

  • thesnowleopard

    Does anybody know when the CW schedule comes out for next season?

  • dddddddddd

    Big fan of Nikita but even I don’t want or think it deserves a full season. I think 10-13 would be perfect to wrap things up. A 6-episode final season would be too short…

  • JJ

    The CW will announce there upcoming fall schedule on Thursday morning but it might come out Wednesday at some point before the upfronts.

  • Melanie

    OK here’s my final guess at the schedule
    5/14/13 guess
    Mon
    8:00 Tomorrow People
    9:00 the 100/ Reign

    Tue
    8:00 Oxygen
    9:00 Beauty & the Beast

    Wed
    8:00 Arrow
    9:00 Supernatural

    Thu
    8:00 Vampire Diaries
    9:00 The Originals

    Fri
    8:00 ANTM/ Nikita/ Carrie Diaries
    9:00 Hart of Dixie

  • Ted Craig

    @Melanie

    Highly unlikely CW will debut two shows on Mondays when they have two veterans available.

  • Melanie

    I can only think of two reasons for Carrie Diaries being renewed: 1)the streaming deals or the on-line ad revenue really do matter as much as the broadcast ad revenue to the CW or 2) WB gave the show away for free. The problem with #2 is that I can’t think of a reason WHY WB would do that — a first year show with 13 episodes sure seems more like a cut your losses sort of situation.

    So in addition to the Syndication Rule you might have to add an asterix to the Renew/Cancel for the CW shows to account for the streaming revenue. Certainly its not a predictive factor for any of the major networks, but for the CW — maybe. Of course I don’t think we see any actual data about that, do we?

  • Dave

    @Melanie

    You hit the spot with that schedule. I strongly believe that Dixie is on her way to Friday.

  • DonnaT

    @ Melanie

    Crossing fingers and toes that your schedule is correct or close to – why should The CW roll the dice on two successful(anticipated) pairings(Wednesday/Thursday and one don’t give a crap night (Friday) to risk having only successful night (Thursday).

  • Jonay

    next year will you predict more carefully for The CW?

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures