CW Renew/Cancel Wrap: 'Nikita,' 'The Carrie Diaries' Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 14th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 12, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult* canceled 0.35
90210 canceled 0.49
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) renewed 0.55
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries* renewed 0.73
Hart Of Dixie renewed 0.88
Beauty And The Beast renewed 0.92
Supernatural renewed 1.52
Arrow renewed 1.58
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.87

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The Cancellation Bear went 9-1 on his CW predictions over the course of the 2012-13 season. (vs. 7-3 in the 2011-12 season)

But that one miss, the prediction that The Carrie Diaries would be canceled, was the biggest missed call of the season for the bear. It was the only show not a "toss up" at the end of the season, and the bear only gave it a 10% chance of renewal. The bear may ponder the reasons why that happened over the summer. Aw, who's he kidding, he's just going to sleep.

With that the cancellation bear bids the 2012-13 season adieu and begins his summer hibernation. The bear and his Renew/Cancel Index posts will return in September. Happy Summer!

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • david

    I was surprised about the TCD renewal. Nikita not really because they want to get it to sindication. I am thinking as others have siad they should redue Mondays and Tuesdays.

  • JustToClarify

    And what a year it’s been.

    These wrap-up posts always make me really sad. I spend way too much time on this website and it feels like a season finale whenever the bear goes into hibernation once again. At least next year I can rest easy (unless there’s a particularly interesting/low-rated pilot show I enjoy) since ‘Nikita’ is entering its final season. See you in September!

  • reedmac

    My final schedule prediction (last year I was spot on with the schedule, this year is harder)

    Monday
    8-Oxygen
    9-Hart Of Dixie

    Tuesday
    8-The 100
    9-Supernatural

    Wednesday
    8-The Tomorrow People
    9-Arrow

    Thursday
    8-The Vampire Diaries
    9-The Originals

    Friday
    8-Beauty and the Beast
    9-ANTM/Nikita

    with Reign and The Carrie Diaries as mid season replacements

  • starship

    @DonnaT

    Networks care about the number of successful shows and the number of above average shows, not about successful nights. If they can split Arrow and Supernatural and have them launch a new show each, they’ll have at least 2 successful shows and 2 above average, instead of having shows paired with underperformers and risking failure.

    There are way too many ways that the CW will go with their schedule, but I’m pretty certain it will look something like this:

    Mon
    8:00 New show (possibly Star Crossed)
    9:00 Hart of Dixie

    Tue
    8:00 New show (possibly The 100)
    9:00 Supernatural

    Wed
    8:00 Arrow
    9:00 New show (possibly The Tomorrow People)

    Thu
    8:00 Vampire Diaries
    9:00 New show (very likely The Originals)

    Fri
    8:00 Beauty and the Beast
    9:00 ANTM/ Nikita

    Mid-season will see The Carrie Diaries and Reign being used to plug holes in the schedule as they’ll both very likely be 13 episode seasons. Alternatively they could have Carrie on Mondays at 8 in the fall, before ultimately being replaced by Star Crossed or Reign mid-season, this way they’ll only have to launch 3 new shows in October, but seeing as how The Originals is a spin-off of VD, they could risk having 3 other new shows alongside it in the fall.

  • thesnowleopard

    @JJ

    Thanks.

  • hi

    I’m not attacking anyone, but why the HELL supernatural always is at 9h?

    Since is strong show, make more sense just use this as a lead in to a new show.

    Put After doesn’t help.

  • halloween

    TCD renewed? WTF…I think Josh Schwartz is related somehow to Mark Pedowitz…how else his shows stay on the air

  • halloween

    CW predictions
    Mon
    8:00 STAR Crossed (NEW)
    9:00 Hart of Dixie

    Tue
    8:00 Supernatural
    9:00 THE 100 (NEW)

    Wed
    8:00 Arrow
    9:00 Tomorrow People (NEW)

    Thu
    8:00 Vampire Diaries
    9:00 The Originals (NEW)

    Fri
    8:00 NIKITA(6eps)Beauty and the Beast(22eps)
    9:00 ANTM/ REREUNS

    mid season Reign and TCD

  • Bern

    Nikita needs a 13 episode or a full season.

  • Looke

    If CW only give Nikita 6 episodes. I think the CW will go down on history as the most stupid network there ever was. It should at least be 13 episodes so it will be on 80 ep after its run

  • davie

    Renewing TCD was a mistake. I don’t really understand why give Nikita 6 episodes instead of 22 when there’s almost no possibility of TCD finding success in Season 2. Just use those 13 episodes for Nikita, reach 88 episodes, call it quits and hope a syndication deal helps you get back the profit loss. How does 73 episodes help with that?

  • Looke

    I agree Davie i never seen a more stupid network decision. CW is a laughing stock

  • truth

    Looke is Bondoel :D

  • KS

    Since the very beginning I am one of those few, who predicted, that both Carrie and Beauty will be renewed. But my mistake in prediction was that, I chose Carrie’s renewal over Beauty’s renewal, which later turned out to be wrong. Couldn’t care less, ‘coz I am not even thinking of watching either of the shows.

    I really doubt, if Arrow/Supernatural can retain their time slots, especially considering the fact that, CW will not air two new shows on one night. I do think Supernatural will remain in the 0.9 – 1.0 range. I doubt if Arrow does.

  • Anthony Parello (AP076)

    Technically should the title read “The Carrie Diaries renewed and Nikita 1/4 renewed”

  • truth

    If Nikita idiots keep bitching about TCD’s renewal, then they are clearly clueless about The CW’s business model. Get a clue! :D

  • reedmac

    @davie

    as low rated as TCD was the CW renewing makes absolute sense. Its obvious they either couldn’t afford another new show or they didn’t like any of the remaining pilots that hadn’t been picked up so decided that instead of airing repeats or reality they would air a second season of Carrie which was literally the only show they had left (that wasn’t cancelled already). They’ll now be starting the season with 10 hours of original programming a week and with 2 additional back up hours which they will likely need. Even if Nikita were to get a full season the CW would likely still need an additional couple of shows as back up.

  • Tom

    Here’s one question to ponder: If two or more of the CW’s new fall shows outperform B&B and Carrie in the demo ratings, will the CW cancel the latter shows after their second year? It’s likely that B&B and Carrie were renewed simply because the CW had no other options. The network wasn’t going to greenlight more than five new shows next year and this left gaps in the schedule that had to be filled. It’s also inferable that both B&B and Carrie will continue to perform at their current anemic levels through next season, So, the question is whether the CW et al. will forego the potential syndication, Netflix and other revenue to be earned by producing more episodes of these shows in favor of rolling the dice on new programs.

    I tend to believe that the CW is first and foremost guided by financial concerns. In other words, accepting a decent financial return on a cheap, low rated program is preferable to risking another Cult or EOMD. Accordingly, unless their ratings fall to a 0.3 demo next season, B&B and Carrie should remain in production at least until their episode numbers reach syndication levels.

  • Robert

    I love Nikita. It rocks.

  • Brandy

    @davie, several shows have been syndicated with fewer than 88:The Unit,Levarege,Flashpoint,Til Death,Veronica Mars to name a few. As long as your really close to 88, you can get a deal.So CW must be working on a deal to syndicate it in Asia for fewer than 88. Secondly, Carrie was renewed because of doing well online, on Hulu and with cws rich streaming deal with Hulu & Netflix ,it made more sense to renew thier existing shows.Plus, I’ve heard CD sold well internationally and is hit internationally .Renewing CD means as another poster said, CW didn’t like or couldn’t afford to pick up more than five pilots.It also helps in making sure theyres no holes in the schedule like there was this year with in April & May , two hours of repeats.CW has never picked up more than five new shows and renewing CD was in line with that.Plus, CD will Likley be released on DVD and that plus other merchandise sales will help make money ,make up for money lost on it.Pedowitz is fond of short final seasons and a big believer of wrapping up vetran shows.So be grateful for whatever Nikita gets cause with its ratings,even with syndication, it deserves to be cancelled, based n ratings only.

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