CW Renew/Cancel Wrap: 'Nikita,' 'The Carrie Diaries' Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

May 14th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- May 12, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Cult* canceled 0.35
90210 canceled 0.49
Emily Owens, M.D.* canceled 0.54
Nikita (F) renewed 0.55
Gossip Girl* final season complete 0.61
The Carrie Diaries* renewed 0.73
Hart Of Dixie renewed 0.88
Beauty And The Beast renewed 0.92
Supernatural renewed 1.52
Arrow renewed 1.58
Vampire Diaries renewed 1.87

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The Cancellation Bear went 9-1 on his CW predictions over the course of the 2012-13 season. (vs. 7-3 in the 2011-12 season)

But that one miss, the prediction that The Carrie Diaries would be canceled, was the biggest missed call of the season for the bear. It was the only show not a "toss up" at the end of the season, and the bear only gave it a 10% chance of renewal. The bear may ponder the reasons why that happened over the summer. Aw, who's he kidding, he's just going to sleep.

With that the cancellation bear bids the 2012-13 season adieu and begins his summer hibernation. The bear and his Renew/Cancel Index posts will return in September. Happy Summer!

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old"  Fall predictions in the table.

Want to know what the CW Renew/Cancel Index table looked like at the end of the Fall season? Click here.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season's Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.

 
  • Jeff R.

    The CW should move Arrow to any timeslot other than it’s current one just to avoid splitting the “people who like to see archery on TV” audience with Revolution.

  • DonnaT

    @ starship (and others who think that Arrow/SPN will likely be split:)

    [b]You’re probably all right.[/b]

    I see a potential probably with SPN (again as with being “mis-paired” with Nikita as lead-in) not being compatible with any new scifi pickup besides Arrow. Both shows skew demographically similar and both shows feature the shared concept of Heroes fighting for justice and both shows have proven, demonstrable synergy, something that cannot be counted on if The CW splits its Wednesday.

    The 100 is the show I most often see SPN being teamed with other keeping it with Arrow, and sounds like it will attract a young demographic and that’s good for The CW target of A18-34 but not if a substantial number of Nielson viewers are under 18. It would be a little different if SPN was a show that could “lead in” in another new scifi show, but it’s not – even if the show toned down the violent content there’s too much cursing to be suitable for 8 pm.

    I’m[b]not[/b] saying this proves anything but in my possibly faulty recollection from keeping my own CW data for the last few years, it seems once the crowing (or groaning ;)) from the season/series premieres is passed, I have read more CW press releases from the “night’s line-up” being successful than individual shows being successful (with the exception of TVD PR).

    It’s just my opinion of course that I would keep Arrow/SPN as is and I don’t even pretend to know what any network looks for; I just know I don’t a repeat of Nikita/SPN in SPN S9. Having a truly compatible lead-in has been amazing.

  • DonnaT

    Bah!I meant “You’re probably all right” and “I’m not saying…”

  • V

    I would put Carrie Diaries more in the Scandal category of liking its potential and hoping it becomes a hit.
    Actually its probably closer to Life Unexpected, it got canned after no grow in 2nd season.

  • thesnowleopard

    @hi
    Because it is an extremely violent show that has always been rated TV-14. Those shows don’t belong any earlier than 9pm.

  • Davis

    Monday
    HoD
    Star Crossed

    Tuesday
    The 100
    Supernatural

    Wednesday
    Arrow
    Tom. People

    Thursday
    TVD
    Originals

    Friday
    NIKITA/ANTM
    B+B

  • JJA

    My prediction for the fall:

    Mon 8–The Carrie Diaries / Reign
    Mon 9–Hart of Dixie

    Tue 8–Star Crossed
    Tue 9–Beauty & The Beast

    Wed 8–The Tomorrow People
    Wed 9–Arrow

    Thu 8–Vampire Diaries
    Thu 9–The Originals

    Fri 8–Nikita / The Hundred
    Fri 9–Supernatural

    BATB will NOT move to Fridays, since its ratings will crash. Supernatural, however, will move back to Fridays to save the night.

    The Hundred seems like it would fit better on SyFy than the CW. This is precisely why it would end-up as a Friday show. Since Battlestar Galactica did well on Friday, the CW is betting The Hundred will too.

    Since Reign and The Hundred are the more risky shows, I’m betting they will only get a 13 episode order and be saved for the spring.

  • CrystalBall

    @JJA : There is no way the CW will move one of its three top rated show on a friday, no network would do that.
    There is also no way they’ll spend money to launch a show on a Friday, they have easier night to invest in.
    B&TB is a long way from syndication, the CW will either toss it on a friday because they think it’s dead or keep in during the week to save that, but in that case they will hold new drama for mid season.

  • Melanie

    @JJA I just don’t see the sense in the CW ‘saving’ Friday nights when Monday & Tuesday also need to be rebuilt from scratch. Granted that Nikita’s absolute ratings sucked and the repeat hour was a black hole, but relative to the Networks’ overall ratings, Nikita is doing as well for the CW as Blue Bloods is for CBS on Fridays.

    If SPN is moved away from Arrow, and I don’t think it will be, it will move to Mon or Tuesday. I could see SPN paired with the Tomorrow People on Monday – especially Monday now that S.H.I.E.L.D.is on Tuesdays. (Mark Pellegrino synergy!)
    One of the pilots — and I’m guessing its Tomorrow People — HAS to be a self starter, be put at 8 and given the big publicity push like Arrow got this year. I thought at the TCA’s (or something) that Pedowitz touted ‘fixing Wednesdays’ as his main programming accomplishment for 2012-13 and looked to building another night in 2013-14. Maybe I’m wrong, but that’s the idea I’ve been going with in fantasy schedule.

    Also, I doubt that having pulled SPN off of Fridays, he would send it back again signalling that his move had been wrong, when in fact, it was a good one.

  • Melanie

    @Dave (from p1) Thanks. I think its more likely that HOD goes to Fridays — if not in the Fall, then at midseason– than BATB because I think the Network is hoping to grow BATB in S2. They already know that HOD isn’t going any higher so it can live out its days to syndication on Fridays, where it might actually be good counter programming.

  • Chris

    I have a feeling that the originals will not do well and will hurt TVD. Hopefully it gets canceled and bring klaus and elijah back to TVD

  • feinn

    @CrystalBall you do remember top rated Smallville got sent to fridays by cw…anything can happen….network execs are idiots

  • thesnowleopard

    @feinn
    The person who made that idiotic decision (among others) got fired. This is the network head who is cleaning up her mess–you know, the one who reversed another of her idiotic decisions, which was to move SPN to Fridays.

    It’s all about money and the bottom line. And the bottom line is that you don’t move any of your top performers to a night where you send shows to die. Especially when you have so few.

  • ROLY

    DESPERATE TIMES AT CW HQ!
    THEY SHOULD PICK UP MANY OF THE
    CANCELED SEIES FROM
    OTHER NETWORKS,AND BE
    GUARANTEED A LARGER AUDIENCE.WOW!
    WHAT AN IDEA!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Melanie

    @ROLY I wish they would pick up the Sixth Gun pilot — that sounds much more interesting to me than Oxygen.

  • gerry

    when is the cw announcing the schedule?

  • Violet

    @gerry The CW will announce its Fall Schedule tomorrow, Thursday May 16, at the CW Upfronts. I’m interested to see how they deal with Carrie Diaries and Nikita, I don’t think any CW show deserves only a 6 episode season! Hopefully we get 13 episodes!

  • alexjones

    stop calling it oxygen people, it’s called star crossed now, which is a good idea since oxygen was a stupid name.

  • eselle28

    @Tom: I think that Beauty and Carrie are safe until syndication now. Even if the CW has a couple of hits this year, it would still only have 5 acceptably performing shows. Add in HoD and assume that Beauty and Carrie both air in the fall, and there are still 2 schedule openings. An extra one is easily created by holding one of the shows for midseason or airing it during the summer.

    Comparing this year to last, I’m getting the feeling that the CW wants to have more spackle and back benchers, so that it can get rid of shows that are dead on arrival instead of being stuck with them for half a season or even a whole one. I’m thinking Carrie survived partially to serve that purpose.

  • Loki

    @Eselle. Don’t be absurd none of the shows you mentioned is safe for syndication Carrie has only produced 26 ep after is 2nd season and Beauty has only produced 44 ep. Absolutely none of them is safe they can both be canceled next season with how low their ratings already is now.

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