ABC: 'Once Upon A Time' & 'Revenge' Are Certain To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

September 24th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


happy_baloon_bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-22, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The Neighbors (F) :| :| :| 0.89
Last Man Standing (F) :) :) :) :) 1.11
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

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Who says that the Cancellation Bear always brings bad news? He's starting off the 2013-14 season with some good news!

Once Upon A Time and Revenge are  certain to be renewed at the end of the 2013-14 season.

Both are produced by ABC and will each begin their third seasons in 2013-14. At the end of this season, each will be within one more full season (give or take a couple episodes) of the 88 episodes which currently seems to be the minimum for extra profitable stripped syndication. For that reason, those show's fans can rest easily.

While the cancellation bear is reasonably confident that third season shows Last Man Standing and Suburgatory will also be renewed, the fact that Fox and Warner Brothers, respectively, are the producers will have the bear wait until the season gets going to make the definitive calls on those two shows.

For the two ABC shows that premiered on Friday, Last Man Standing did noticeably better than The Neighbors. But any serious predicting will have to wait until the bear sees more than 2 ABC show's numbers.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • tomko44

    Tad early for such a certainty! What if they tank this year? They haven’t even premiered yet! :)

  • Tom Shaw

    They are ‘certain’ because of syndication. Anything better than Nikita levels will get them another season.

    Suburgatory’s order is only for 13 episodes, which puts it in a (probably bad) situation similar to Haappy Endings.

  • Maximillian

    Even if they tank, they will be still get the last season pickup since its ABC owned. They will make more money in syndication then lost money in the next 2 seasons.

    Do we need to recap “Nikita” and how this works? It would take crazy circumstances for them not to get a 4th season.

  • DenverDean

    Revenge certain to be renewed? Not so sure the “3 season” rule for syndication applies only because it has very little syndication value based on its format. I mean, ABC can’t even air repeats because it performs so poorly. It only gets renewed if everything else bombs OR if the ratings go up this season (possible).

  • ruckfules55

    Even though we have had clear examples of the “3rd yr and renewed” shows before, can Revenge make it to a 4th? Its ratings were clearly trending down towards the mid-1s in the spring. But since it’s an in-house production and given the fact that ABC has lots of trouble spots on the sked, I bet Revenge gets thrown into the Thurs @8PM slot next year.

  • j

    I always find it weird that flop 3rd season shows get 4th seasons cuz of syndication. Like if they’re flopping why would they do well in syndication?

    Just cuz they might do better internationally?

  • Brian

    More great news for OUAT and Revenge :)

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I always find it weird that flop 3rd season shows get 4th seasons cuz of syndication. Like if they’re flopping why would they do well in syndication?

    Just cuz they might do better internationally?”

    No, because nearly every show gets sold into syndication, and 4 seasons of a show (88 eps) are worth a lot more than 3 seasons. Seemingly to the extent that 4th seasons will get produced at a significant loss if need be.

  • Adrian Warhol

    What about Scandal?

  • Dan

    Last Man Standing despite being owned by FOX is more likely to be renewed than Suburgatory. It has a full 22 episode season this year and 22+24+18= 64. Its doing decently even for fridays and it seems to have the Til Death situation going for it where even FOX could give ABC a good deal to give it a fourth season.

    Suburgatory seems to have the Happy Endings situation. Which is bad. The firing of Rex Lee and Alan Tudyk shows that the series is getting expensive to produce. It will have 57 episodes by the end of its third season like Happy Endings and even a full fourth season wont save the show. The only way Suburgatory may be saved is if a fall comedy flops for ABC, and ABC puts Suburgatory in and orders more episodes this season. That may save it for another season but right now its too early to tell.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Last Man Standing despite being owned by FOX is more likely to be renewed than Suburgatory. It has a full 22 episode season this year and 22+24+18= 64. Its doing decently even for fridays and it seems to have the Til Death situation going for it where even FOX could give ABC a good deal to give it a fourth season.

    Suburgatory seems to have the Happy Endings situation. Which is bad. The firing of Rex Lee and Alan Tudyk shows that the series is getting expensive to produce. It will have 57 episodes by the end of its third season like Happy Endings and even a full fourth season wont save the show. The only way Suburgatory may be saved is if a fall comedy flops for ABC, and ABC puts Suburgatory in and orders more episodes this season. That may save it for another season but right now its too early to tell.”

    I’d agree. I think only a terrible (relative) tumble could kill LMS, and I think that Suburgatory could be a difficult call depending on the ratings.

  • THE OLD MAN

    No disagreement here at all

  • zerg

    @Adrian Warhol

    Scandal in the first season aired only 8(?) episodies…way too far from syndaction deal

  • Ram510

    Where is the Mistresses Renewal????

  • Dan

    Yeah Scandal is long away from syndication but its doing well enough now to just say its more than likely to reach it at some point. Especially if it continues to beat Grey’s Anatomy.

  • Jerry

    I hope you are right. I like both shows, but they struggled during their sophomore seasons, especially Revenge. But there are so many slots that are just troublesome and total flops that these two seemed certain to be renewed. ABC needs to have a good season this year (though it seems unlikely). Their only trump card this season is Shield, and if that doesn’t do well, they won’t seem to have a good season.

    But then again, during the 2011-2012 season, many would predict that Once Upon A Time, Revenge and Scandal would be cancelled within their first few episodes of running, and DOA. Scandal didn’t even seem to be able to crack a 2.0 for most of it’s first season run, and was only narrowly saved over GCB. Luckily for ABC, that instinct to renew Scandal over GCB was right, proving many many people including myself wrong. In hindsight actually, they should renew both GCB and Scandal, both had the abilities to gain viewers.

  • Ann

    How can anyone be certain before the season has already started that they’ll be renewed?

    Is it just because of syndication?

  • josh

    Gosh I can only hope so ONCE UPON a TIME is my fav TV SHOW Can`t wait for the premiere

  • Greg

    Suburgatory is not expensive. I think it’s more like a Chuck situation, where Warner Bros. slashed its budget after its second season.

    I feel that it’s pretty much guaranteed that one of ABC’s comedies will fail, leaving an empty slot for Suburgatory (it might even be The Neighbors). I think Back in the Game is the one in the worst timeslot, but The Voice could certainly crush those Tuesday comedies.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Is it just because of syndication?”

    Yes, grasshopper.

    Snatch the pebble from my hand.

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