ABC: 'Once Upon A Time' & 'Revenge' Are Certain To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

September 24th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


happy_baloon_bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-22, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The Neighbors (F) :| :| :| 0.89
Last Man Standing (F) :) :) :) :) 1.11
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

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Who says that the Cancellation Bear always brings bad news? He's starting off the 2013-14 season with some good news!

Once Upon A Time and Revenge are  certain to be renewed at the end of the 2013-14 season.

Both are produced by ABC and will each begin their third seasons in 2013-14. At the end of this season, each will be within one more full season (give or take a couple episodes) of the 88 episodes which currently seems to be the minimum for extra profitable stripped syndication. For that reason, those show's fans can rest easily.

While the cancellation bear is reasonably confident that third season shows Last Man Standing and Suburgatory will also be renewed, the fact that Fox and Warner Brothers, respectively, are the producers will have the bear wait until the season gets going to make the definitive calls on those two shows.

For the two ABC shows that premiered on Friday, Last Man Standing did noticeably better than The Neighbors. But any serious predicting will have to wait until the bear sees more than 2 ABC show's numbers.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • diana

    @denver dean I’m pretty sure revenge will be doing well because the previews seem so good and plus it’s getting a lot of buzz

  • JR35

    Hope OUAT had its creative juices flow over the summer; I enjoyed season 2, but just a little bit less than S1. Which may be understandable, as S1 was all about the curse and it getting broken by the end of the season.

  • ABC hater

    Miss GCB. DH “spiritual successor”, if there is such a thing. =)

  • ruckfules55

    I miss Chuck Mondays! It’s been quite a while since it was mentioned in the comments. =)

  • SJ

    @Dan

    Where does it say that LMS was picked up for 22 episodes? Even Futon Critic doesn’t have the info.

    I think it’s much more likely it got a 13-episode renewal, in which case:

    LMS = Suburgatory = Happy Endings.

  • JacobYates

    @Bill
    I have a new excuse for the Fan Excuse Bingo card. The duel lead in effect.

    An example of this would be Vegas. NCIS premiered to a 4.1 last season, NCIS LA premiered to a 3.4, and Vegas premiered to a 2.5.

    My reasoning is that almost no show will retain 100% of its lead in. So if show 2 is aided by a lead in from show 1, and show 2 is also leading into show 3, the ratings for show 3 will drop significantly farther.

    Does that make sense? Probably too vague to put on the Bingo card, but I started thinking about this the other day and wanted to see what you or anybody else thought.

  • scifi

    Once upin a time is not cheap, so your predictions are too early. It was near to death last season.

  • Lucas Melo

    And Scandal??

  • Ryan

    @JacobYates
    Plenty of shows grow out of their lead-ins, even for 10 PM. Scandal beat Grey’s multiple times by the end of the season. If I recall correctly, Chicago Fire grew out of SVU and Blue Bloods grew out of CSI NY.

    @scifi
    Please. OUAT has so many corporate Disney synergies going on, it’s nowhere near cancellation. Even after the ratings do decline to the point of cancellation, which they aren’t even close to now, I bet it gets an extra season out of ABC.

    @Bill
    How many extra episodes would it take for Suburgatory to be considered safe? Suppose for example that one or more fall comedies fail and ABC orders five more episodes for 18 total. Would 62 episodes be close enough for syndication to be a factor in renewal decisions? Or is 57 already close enough that okay relative ratings (better than Happy Endings) would secure renewal?

  • Ultima

    @Bill Gorman
    Once Upon A Time and Revenge are certain to be renewed at the end of the 2013-14 season.

    Bold prediction for Revenge. Shows with ~66 episodes have been canceled before and certainly a heavily serialized soap is the weakest format for a show in that position.

    Granted, the bar is fairly low and I would expect it to be renewed, but I would stop short of a preseason certain renewal.

  • Ultima

    @scifi
    Once upin a time is not cheap, so your predictions are too early. It was near to death last season.

    Nonsense, at no time last season was Once Upon a Time anything but a certain renewal.

  • Nasir

    Hopefully OUAT rediscovers its footing because last season just wasn’t as good as the first.

  • Nasir

    I believe Scandal already has a syndication deal with BET, right?

  • milo

    What are some exceptions to the syndication rule, particularly fairly recent ones? Shows that were cancelled after three seasons and around 66 episodes.

  • Cle

    hope OUAT and REV keep those big 5 smiles all way round through the season…

  • Cle

    I think both OUAT and REV will premier slightly down from last season but will have a good consitensy and a higher average… ABC and Creatives must have learnt lesson considering what last season was..

  • josh

    this sudnay

    once – 2 .5

    revenge – 2.2

  • Jase L.

    I think both OUAT and Revenge will fare a little better this year due to ABC’s plan to air them with only one long break between the first and second halves of the season. Last season’s scheduling with the frequent breaks was a real mess and did neither show any favors.

  • bluejays

    Oooh the Revenge haters are NOT going to like this weeks headline. I think you should just repeat this headline every single week to annoy them.

  • Ron

    Just so you know OUAT and Revenge will have 24 episodes this season.68 total

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