ABC: 'Once Upon A Time' & 'Revenge' Are Certain To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

September 24th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


happy_baloon_bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-22, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The Neighbors (F) :| :| :| 0.89
Last Man Standing (F) :) :) :) :) 1.11
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

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Who says that the Cancellation Bear always brings bad news? He's starting off the 2013-14 season with some good news!

Once Upon A Time and Revenge are  certain to be renewed at the end of the 2013-14 season.

Both are produced by ABC and will each begin their third seasons in 2013-14. At the end of this season, each will be within one more full season (give or take a couple episodes) of the 88 episodes which currently seems to be the minimum for extra profitable stripped syndication. For that reason, those show's fans can rest easily.

While the cancellation bear is reasonably confident that third season shows Last Man Standing and Suburgatory will also be renewed, the fact that Fox and Warner Brothers, respectively, are the producers will have the bear wait until the season gets going to make the definitive calls on those two shows.

For the two ABC shows that premiered on Friday, Last Man Standing did noticeably better than The Neighbors. But any serious predicting will have to wait until the bear sees more than 2 ABC show's numbers.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • JR35

    Hopefully the 11-week runs, with no interruptions, will be a good move. That way, people will know exactly when to tune in, and not get frustrated seeing one new episode here, then a preemption there, and a rerun here, etc.

  • Ultima

    @JR35
    Hopefully the 11-week runs, with no interruptions, will be a good move.

    While they are going to have a long midseason hiatus, the runs will not be uninterrupted (e.g. American Music Awards and Thanksgiving).

  • SJ

    @Ron

    No it won’t. It will have 22 episodes. The 24 episode order was a false rumor started at the upfronts.

  • SJ

    @Ultima

    Sunday shows don’t break for Thanksgiving.

  • rob60990

    “I think Back in the Game is the one in the worst timeslot”

    How is airing in between The Middle & Modern Family a bad timeslot?

  • rob60990

    Regarding the Sunday shows, I could have sworn I read an interview with the new Revenge showrunner stating they would air 10 episodes Sept-Dec, 3 in January, and 9 from March-May.

  • Ultima

    @SJ
    Sunday shows don’t break for Thanksgiving.

    Correct, but they will for the American Music Awards.

  • Jay Z

    Since BET is showing episodes of scandal does that mean it has a syndication deal already ? can someone please answer !? thanks

  • JJF

    I think LMS could get saved by syndication. I think The Neighbors is sadly toast. Honestly, I think Suburgatory is too. Being midseason spackle didn’t bode well for it and it’s ratings last season were not much better than The Neighbors. I don’t think syndication will save it. Best case scenario, IMO, is it pulling a Cougar Town. Suburgatory seems destined to be the next “they cancelled that for THIS?” show. ;)

  • Jarrad

    I wouldn’t say Revenge bombed last year, yes ratings declined, by the was due to (a) a poor storyline in the first half of the season, which seems to be so far rectified in season 3 from what I’ve read and (b) a poor lead in by Once Upon A Time.

  • Dan

    @SJ – It doesn’t say it anywhere but I’m sure at this point Last Man Standing and The Neighbors both have full 22 episode orders. ABC just has to confirm this. The Mindy Project also has a 22 episode season but Thefutoncritic just shows 2 (??? episodes), yet FOX hasn’t officially confirmed it.

  • Dorothy5334

    Why do people continue to say both OUAT AND REVENGE were ever anything but certain renewal last year? Just because they dropped a bit from S1 doesn’t mean that they had that much better to put in its place; in order for it to be pulled from their lineup.

  • HV

    Here are my predictions:

    VERY LIKELY CANCELED:

    LIKELY CANCELED:
    The Neighbors

    IN THE MIDDLE:

    LIKELY RENEWED:
    Last Man Standing

    VERY LIKELY RENEWED:

    I don’t think that you can predict shows that haven’t aired yet. Even if they will have 3 full seasons in May. A third season show could tank early on and get pulled before too many episodes are produced.

    Also, about Suburgatory, it’s more like Cougar Town in the sense that it had two full seasons and then was held for midseason in season 3. I think it will end up on the schedule fast, and get more episodes added maybe ending up with a total of 16-18 this season.

  • JaneDoe24

    @JayZ Yes, Scandal did get an early syndication deal with BET. That’s why they were able to air the marathon of season 1 and 2 during the summer.

  • ToXiX

    Just watched Lucky 7.

    LOVED IT. Really hope it doesn’t flop , but it had zero promotion. I didn’t even know what it was about until I saw the promo during Goldbergs.

    Really glad I watched it.

  • Tom

    “I think both OUAT and Revenge will fare a little better this year due to ABC’s plan to air them with only one long break….”

    @ Jase

    Good point. All those preemptions made Revenge particularly hard to follow because it has a complicated plot. Last season, I ended up recording most episodes of Revenge on my DVR so that I could replay them later without those frequent interruptions.

  • Dan

    Back in the Game is a good timeslot bt The Goldbergs would fit better there, BITG would work better at 9:30 and Super Fun Night and Trophy Wife could both flop on Tuesdays at 9 & 9:30.

  • Jon

    I still say the biggest mistake ABC made was moving Revenge from Weds night. It was doing good there. They buried it on Sunday last year against football and then of course the walking dead, any show would tumble there, but why not put a crappy show there during that timeslot.

  • Jon

    I’m pretty confident we will be seeing Suburgatory before too long. ABC won’t be able to afford to hold out. One or more of these sitcoms are going to fail.

  • Mumbo

    I’m not totally confident that OUAT and Revenge will be automatically renewed, because they’re both highly serialized and I don’t think they hold much syndication value. OUAT in particular is a very expensive show, too.

    That said, I think OUAT will pull in the numbers to coast to a renewal with relative ease, whereas Revenge might have a bit of a fight on its hands.

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