ABC: 'Once Upon A Time' & 'Revenge' Are Certain To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

September 24th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


happy_baloon_bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-22, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The Neighbors (F) :| :| :| 0.89
Last Man Standing (F) :) :) :) :) 1.11
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

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Who says that the Cancellation Bear always brings bad news? He's starting off the 2013-14 season with some good news!

Once Upon A Time and Revenge are  certain to be renewed at the end of the 2013-14 season.

Both are produced by ABC and will each begin their third seasons in 2013-14. At the end of this season, each will be within one more full season (give or take a couple episodes) of the 88 episodes which currently seems to be the minimum for extra profitable stripped syndication. For that reason, those show's fans can rest easily.

While the cancellation bear is reasonably confident that third season shows Last Man Standing and Suburgatory will also be renewed, the fact that Fox and Warner Brothers, respectively, are the producers will have the bear wait until the season gets going to make the definitive calls on those two shows.

For the two ABC shows that premiered on Friday, Last Man Standing did noticeably better than The Neighbors. But any serious predicting will have to wait until the bear sees more than 2 ABC show's numbers.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Simon

    Hope you’re right about Once Upon A Time! Hopefully this new scheduling scheme ABC has for their serialized shows works out! Plus the second half of S3 will be March next year.

  • M

    I think both shows were a little complicated last season and hard to follow with frequent interruptions however season 2 of OUAT was way more enjoyable than season 1… I actually kept up with it it got so good and this season is gonna be even better… Revenge is also gonna be at the top of its game because they are going back to season 1 format which was more enjoyable than season 2… I think no interruptions will definitely help ratings this year but marvel or OUATIW should move to revenge slot and revenge move to original spot on Wednesday now taken up by Nashville which should be cancelled… Betrayal is DOA just like 666 and red widow

  • Alex

    Although as a OUAT fan this makes me happy, at the same time who airs “strip syndication” anymore? TV shows that get cancelled after 13 episodes can now make money on DVD release, and most broadcasters air either infomercials or news in the time slots where shows like Once Upon a Time, er, aired once upon a time. As recently as 10 years ago, sure (I remember most folks assumed Enterprise would be cancelled except for those who said they’d hold onto it till it approached the magic 100-episode number for syndication) but today is this even relevant?

  • Brandy

    Happy to hear this about Once.

  • Mike

    Suburgatory absolutely sucks. I’ve never laughed at anything on that show. Trophy Wife is the same thing, but I’m just judging from one episode.

  • Dan

    Suburgatory is the next to go unfortunately.

    I don’t know if there is a scenario where the show returns before Jan and if Rex Lee and Alan Tudyk being cut from the show is any indication then the budget looks pretty high.

    ABC is really bad at keeping comedies past 3 seasons. They couldn’t do it with Cougar Town (which they own and luckily TBS picked up), they coudn’t do it with Happy Endings (which sadly flopped in its third season) and they won’t be able to do it with Suburgatory. Last Man Standing is the last chance for syndication and ABC doesnt even own it.

    Fox was at least able to keep Til Death, Raising Hope and The Cleveland Show to 4 seasons, and CBS did it with Rules of Engagement (7 seasons), Mike & Molly (4 seasons) and likely next year 2 Broke Girls.

  • tim gueguen

    Lucky 7 appears to be a candidate for early cancellation. It reportedly attracted only 4.5 million viewers, apparently the lowest rated drama premiere in ABC history.

  • Tom

    Suburgatory was a pretty entertaining show for most of its first season. The show then began to lose its audience because Tessa was put into a tedious and highly improbable relationship with the dunce from across the street. By coincidence, roughly the same scenario brought down the ratings for season three of Awkward. Now that both shows have stalled, it’s unlikely their ratings will recover

  • Eric_Philly

    The real question is: Will Once Upon a Time have ewoks this season?

  • eridapo

    @Bill

    No Castle prediction yet?

    I know when they ink the syndication deal with TNT, TNT only paid $1.5 million for each episode. The deal covered only the first four seasons. When compare to The Mentalist ($2.2 Million) and H50 ($2.5 Million), Castle was cheap. Yet looking at how all three shows have performed for TNT, I would say that ABC might have gotten a higher fee for season 5 and the upcoming season. If it is anywhere near what TNT paid for H50 and the Mentalist, I don’t see why ABC wouldn’t renewed the show for another season. Ratings wise it is not the best performer for ABC, but it is solid and consistent performer.

    What is your take? Is the 7th season a sure thing?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “No Castle prediction yet?”

    The only predictions this week were for (a) shows that had already aired episodes last week, (b) shows beginning their 3rd seasons (and not all of those).

    Castle is in neither group.

    Predictions for all shows that have aired episodes in premiere week will come next Tuesday.

  • eridapo

    thanks

  • neJANIS

    Never understood that syndication deal. There are plent of show’s that are canceled few epsiodes short to 88. The most recent example – Nikita. Okay, it was renewed for 4th season, but it has only 6 epsidoes, which makes it pretty far from 88 episodes. So what was point of that?

  • Brandy

    @Nejanis, the purpose was twofold:1.Nikita fans got more episodes,another season and a proper conclusion (which not all shows get,even three or four season old shows.Ex: The Glades,Drop Dead Diva(at first). 2.Several shows have have been syndicated with fewer than 88:Til Death,The Unit,Leverage, to name a few.Its rare but it does happen and its possible Nikita can/will be syndicated at 76.Also, maybe the number needed for international syndication is less than 88.Nikita was supposedly being readied for Aisian syndication.
    But, anyway, after ending GG,90210& cancelling Cult,EMily Owens MD, its also possible that CW couldnt afford to cancel Nikita too and the CW prez is a fan and Nikitas online/Netflux income made it more wise to renew than cancel and put a new show in its place.This was given as a reason Carrie Diaries,though very low rated, was renewed too.

  • eridapo

    @neJANIS

    This is not the CW thread, so can we keep the focus on ABC shows… thanks

  • Dollface

    Well ya that just makes money sense they are both made and owned by abcand disney right? So the networks not spending as much money in the long run. Don’t shows like that have better 4 year odds? That’s a question not a smart ass comment.

  • Dollface

    @nejanis that was the cw throwing obsessed fans a bone so they would still watch the networks other shows and not jump ship.

  • Anthony

    It’s a bit early to predict Once Upon A Time and Revenge will both get Season 4 renewals, but I trust this websites insight and experience when it comes to these types of things. Not to mention both shows are and have been in ABC’s Top 5 for tge last 3 Seasons. Season 3 for Revenge wasn’t as strong IMO as Seasons 1 & 2 but the show is still strong enough to bounce back and has a real good faithful fanbase to tank just in one season alone. Both with get syndication eventually. I’m more concerned with Marvel’s Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. even though they had really strong numbers for the Pilot episode, I was left a little underwhelmed. Perhaps it will take awhile for this show to gain some traction, but they need to ramp things up soon or people will tune out no matter how popular the Marvel brand is

  • Joey

    I’m calling it now; Suburgatory will, at some point this season or next, be relegated to Fridays, I can feel it. I think the move to Fridays will be a good one and get it to its 88 episodes.

    The Neighbors though? Dunno. LMS, I think, will be safe

  • Cyrax

    Why is it assumed that Last Man Standing is only 13 episodes when it’s been confirmed that The Neighbors gets 22?! I can’t even think of a 3rd season show that had a 24 episode season already that would only get a 13-episode renewal…

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