FOX: 'New Girl' Is Certain To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

September 24th, 2013

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-22, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The Mindy Project :| :| :| 0.74
Dads :| :| :| 0.86
Bones :) :) :) :) 0.90
Brooklyn Nine-Nine :) :) :) :) 1.01
New Girl :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
Sleepy Hollow :) :) :) :) 1.36
Glee already renewed
American Dad final season

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Who says that the Cancellation Bear always brings bad news? He's starting off the 2013-14 season with some good news!

New Girl is certain to be renewed at the end of the 2013-14 season.

New Girl began its third season in 2013-14. At the end of this season, it will be within one more full season (give or take a couple) of the 88 episodes which currently seems to be the minimum for extra profitable stripped syndication. For that reason, its fans can rest easily (although I'm sure most already were, it's hardly a bold prediction).

In other certainty news, it has already been announced that 2013-14 will be American Dad's final season on Fox (it will continue on TBS), and Glee has already been renewed for the 2014-15 season (did the anti-fan teeth gnashing continue over the summer?).

Moving on to the discussion of Fox shows that have already premiered, Dads and The Mindy Project started slowly, but not so slowly as to immediately mark them as certain meals of the Cancellation Bear.The rest of the shows did well enough to not bring notice to them by the bear. Next week may change that, stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Joe

    If Fox can just get Brooklyn Nine-Nine to be a decent, Middle-sized hit, they’ll have the building blocks of a solid comedy night on their hands. We’ll see if that can be a reality, though.

  • Ultima

    @ChuckTesta
    One other prediction for Fox that you can put with high confidence is Raising Hope as “certain to be cancelled”. Heck, put it as “effectively cancelled” and you’re still right. The announcement of it moving to Friday was the announcement of “we’re burning off one more season worth of episodes just so there’s enough to sell it to syndication, but after that it’s a goner.” I think we all know this is true.

    It wasn’t that long ago that CBS scheduled Rules of Engagement for Saturday and ended up renewing it at the end of the season.

  • Joe

    As for Raising Hope being “de facto cancelled” – not so fast. I think RH will probably be substituting Dads in the coming weeks.

  • SJ

    Since it has already been announced that The Simpsons and Family Guy will be doing a crossover episode in fall 2014, you can mark them both as de facto renewed. As for Bob’s Burgers, Fox wouldn’t have held on to it for so long to not get it into syndication now.

    I’m pretty sure Bones will get a final 10th season. As for Raising Hope, even if it moves away from Fridays, I’m betting this is its last season (unless Fox is in need of schedule spackle next year). It already hit a 1.3 and 1.2 when following Idol on a Thursday last year.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “You may want to note that American Dad is actually moving to cable (TBS) instead of ending.”

    Now done.

  • bluejays

    I love New Girl. My fave show right now. I think Schmidt is the best comic character in decades.

  • Katy

    Esaul I also thought about Itunes sales and even looked them up but from what I can see last year’s songs barely made it out of the top 50 aside from around 5, one would wonder if FOX is losing money on paying royalties for the songs.

  • ATXCountry

    @bluejays, Nick Miller all the way

  • Sky

    @Katy – according to an article published by Parade back in 2011, Glee pays an average of $15,000 to $30,000 in licensing fees per song, depending on how big the original artist is. Considering how low music sales were last season, it is feasible that they were losing money on the music.

    However, I would assume the music licensing fees are included in the overall episode budget, and last season Fox definitely made a decent profit from Glee’s TV ad revenue. So any “loss” on the music side of things would be offset by ad revenue.

    I’m curious to see what the ad rate is for this season of Glee, but even if it’s significantly less than last year’s rate (it was $224,345 per 30 second commercial according to Advertising Age), the show will still be making money for Fox.

  • Jamie04

    I’m glad Glee was renewed already so (hopefully) I don’t have to read all the negative comments on this site about the show.

  • Dan

    @Matt – I think its only 88, I believe FOX only ordered 20 episodes to be produced for Season 4 combined with the 2 leftover episodes. Then again I could be wrong.

    My guess for renewal cancelled

    Renewed: Bones (likely), Sleepy Hollow (should ratings hold up), Glee, Family Guy, American Dad (TBS), The Simpsons, New Girl, Brooklyn Nine-Nine, The Following, Idol, X Factor

    Cancelled: Dads, The Mindy Project, Raising Hope, Almost Human (should it flop), Enlisted

  • HV

    My predictions:

    VERY LIKELY CANCELED:

    LIKELY CANCELED:
    Dads

    IN THE MIDDLE:
    The Mindy Project

    LIKELY RENEWED:
    Bones
    Sleepy Hollow
    Brooklyn Nine-Nine
    New Girl

    VERY LIKELY RENEWED:

  • Dan

    @HV – I would think New Girl would be very likely renewed.

  • Melissa

    As sad as I will be, I wish Fox would just announce ‘Final Season’ for Bones. That way I won’t be so antsy and I can prepare myself.

  • Sarah

    Is it wrong to hope the X Factor goes below 1.9 on at least one of the nights, if not both, this week?

  • ToXiX

    @Sarah

    Nope, I’m ready to see how low it can go :) I’m hoping for a 1.7 tonight

  • Sarah

    @ToXiX

    “@Sarah

    Nope, I’m ready to see how low it can go :) I’m hoping for a 1.7 tonight”

    Well, to be honest, I’m hoping for 1.5-1.7, but with my luck it’ll probably do better.

  • Kate

    Will Dads be the first show of the season to be axed?

  • JacobYates

    @Kate
    Probably. Then Fox will switch Raising Hope back to its old timeslot and ship Dads to Fridays. If Dads isn’t the one pulled, then Mindy Project will be.

  • Dan

    @JacobYates – I think that its possible FOX moves Raising Hope to Tuesdays at 8 and burn off Dads Fridays at 8 & 8:30 nut not likely. What will air with Enlisted on Fridays come January? Will Raising Hope move to Fridays then? Will a new show start Tuesdays?

    Dads is doing OK enough to be kept on the air through December (Like Running Wilde was), but not well enough to get the back 9 like Brooklyn Nine-Nine will get. FOX doing well enough this year that they may not have to cancel a show until December by just not ordering anymore Dads.

    The Mindy Project won’t be pulled or replaced. It has a 22 episode order and honestly if FOX renewed the show, they have to be willing to accept its low numbers through the season. It will probably be cancelled in May however.

    Does anyone know if FOX could order more Sleepy Hollow episodes? Or is it capped at 13 like Terra Nova?

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