Bubble Watch: 'Revolution,' 'Mom,' 'Dads,' 'Parenthood,' 'Hawaii Five-0' 'Mindy Project' & More Predicted Cancelled

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

September 29th, 2013

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Note from the editors: Robert has hung his Bubble Watch shoes this season. Long-time reader Tom Shaw is taking the reins. Fear not! Bill is still doing new Renew/Cancel Index posts on Tuesdays.

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2014-15).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

Bubble Watch: Numbers, Numbers Everywhere!

Broadcast TV may finally be reaching a modern equilibrium, as overall ratings are slightly up from last year and every network has a premiere to crow about (SHIELD, The Crazy Ones, Sleepy Hollow, & The Blacklist). It’s a much lower equilibrium than would have seemed possible even a decade ago – depending on the timeslot, a 2.0 will now get you renewed on every network – but it’s an equilibrium nonetheless.

Enough navel-gazing, as there are a mountain of rookies and transplants to cover. In rough chronological order:

ABC

Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. started off as the #1 premiere of the season. No surprise… and frankly irrelevant. The much bigger question is how, say, episodes 4 and 7 do.

The Goldbergs started off as ABC’s #2 premiere. Its lead-in being network TV’s #1 premiere may have helped there.  Too early to tell how it settles (or more accurately, how SHIELD settles).

Trophy Wife received little of SHIELD’s halo; with multiple comedies waiting in the wings, it probably needs every other new comedy to fail to have a chance.

Lucky 7 is dead. Full stop. The question now becomes when, not if, ABC yanks it off the air. (Though it may very well produce all 13 episodes in its order. The Whole Truth did with roughly equivalent ratings a few years back.)

Back In The Game started off as ABC’s worst rated non-Friday comedy. That is not a recipe for survival.

The Neighbors dropped 17% in Week 2. Doing 45% of ABC’s worst Tue-Wed comedy, the ABC schedule would have to completely implode before they needed The Neighbors as spackle. I can’t imagine ABC renews it for two more seasons of sub-1 ratings on Fridays to get it to syndication.

CBS

Mom started off as CBS’ worst rated comedy. That isn’t good. Furthermore, can even the Chuck Lorre name save it… from being replaced by a Chuck Lorre show (Mike & Molly)?

Hostages is dead after these 15 episodes. The only question now is if the numbers get bad enough that it swaps timeslots with Hawaii Five-0.

Person Of Interest returned to numbers slightly worse than it was doing in Spring.  It was still CBS’ top rated 10pm show. Its performance probably has CBS executives chugging antacids nonstop – not because of PoI’s ratings themselves, but because Scandal-level ratings are now nearly impossible at 10pm on broadcast TV from now on.

The Crazy Ones is the #2 rated premiere of the season. I wouldn’t break out the champagne quite yet, as nostalgia-based ratings fall apart fast.

Two and a Half Men did roughly CBS’ ratings average. I thoroughly doubt CBS gets it at the average programming cost. Some year CBS will have enough successful comedies to let this go – and it could be this year.

Hawaii Five-0 actually held onto most of its Monday audience, dropping only 20% from its April & May average. That said, skipping Sundays is a significant sign that CBS considers it all but dead.  A decent performance when it replaces Hostages might convince CBS to give it another chance – but I certainly wouldn’t bet on it.

FOX

Sleepy Hollow dropped a mere 11% in Week 2, against full first run competition. Almost Human has the tiniest of leashes to survive into Spring.

Dads and Brooklyn Nine-Nine predictably suffered vs. first-run competition, dropping over 30% this week.  On the plus side, they aren’t worse (yet) than The Mindy Project’s numbers!

NBC

The Blacklist took advantage of its Voice lead-in to be the #3 premiere of the season.  As long as it keeps The Voice as its lead-in, it gets renewed.

Chicago Fire took advantage of its Voice lead-in to gain nearly a full ratings point over where it was in Spring.

Revolution, now without a Voice lead-in, did numbers nearly equal to how it ended Spring. This is frankly a significant victory for the show! (Or a sign that NBC wasted that Voice lead-in for all of last Spring. Either or.) If it can keep above 1.5 or so (and there’s no regime change at NBC), I could see a (cheapened, effectively two season) renewal. I just won’t predict that, yet.

Parks & Recreation took over Community’s timeslot. It apparently took over Community’s ratings too, tying Lucky 7 for the worst rated Monday – Thursday show on the Big Four. And yet (given the probable lack of any Fall comedy hits on NBC) I still think it is likely it gets a 13 episode spackle/farewell order for next year.

The Michael J. Fox show premiered to ratings slightly over NBC’s scripted average. As the result of a bidding war that lead to a 22-episode order, this has to be highly disappointing for NBC. Even worse, the show didn’t appreciably improve at 9:30, when there was no competing nostalgia option on CBS.

Parenthood, moving to a much rougher timeslot, tied its series low. Not a particularly healthy situation, when it is now at a syndicatable episode count and NBC has multiple Spring dramas that could be successful.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
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Show Network Status
How I Met Your Mother CBS Final Season
tvbythenumbers.com
Back In The Game ABC Cancellation Predicted
Lucky 7 ABC Cancellation Predicted
Nashville ABC Cancellation Predicted
The Neighbors ABC Cancellation Predicted
Trophy Wife ABC Cancellation Predicted
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Cancellation Predicted
Hostages CBS Cancellation Predicted
Mom CBS Cancellation Predicted
Dads Fox Cancellation Predicted
The Mindy Project Fox Cancellation Predicted
Parenthood NBC Cancellation Predicted
Revolution NBC Cancellation Predicted
tvbythenumbers.com
The Goldbergs ABC On The Bubble
The Crazy Ones CBS On The Bubble
Two and a Half Men CBS On The Bubble
The Michael J Fox Show NBC On The Bubble
tvbythenumbers.com
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. ABC Renewal Predicted
Castle ABC Renewal Predicted
Grey's Anatomy ABC Renewal Predicted
Last Man Standing ABC Renewal Predicted
Modern Family ABC Renewal Predicted
The Middle ABC Renewal Predicted
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewal Predicted
Blue Bloods CBS Renewal Predicted
Criminal Minds CBS Renewal Predicted
CSI CBS Renewal Predicted
Elementary CBS Renewal Predicted
NCIS CBS Renewal Predicted
NCIS: LA CBS Renewal Predicted
Person Of Interest CBS Renewal Predicted
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewal Predicted
Bones Fox Renewal Predicted
Brooklyn Nine-Nine Fox Renewal Predicted
Sleepy Hollow Fox Renewal Predicted
The New Girl Fox Renewal Predicted
Chicago Fire NBC Renewal Predicted
Law & Order: SVU NBC Renewal Predicted
Parks & Recreation NBC Renewal Predicted
The Blacklist NBC Renewal Predicted
tvbythenumbers.com
Glee Fox Renewed

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  • Michelle

    Does Blue Bloods have a syndication deal? How long would CBS continue to stick with a show if there is no syndication deal? Just curious. I love Blue Bloods, but I have not heard of any syndication deal for them.

  • sally

    I love Hawaii 50 but want it back on Monday night, I hate realty shows like Undercover Boss, it is so staged any phony people

  • Brad

    This is getting old. Gotta start my dream 2018-2019 schedule guys/

  • Dan

    @TV Viewer – That’s precisely why Hawaii 5-0 is safe. Because CBS started out not great. Look at it this way, Hostages wil be cancelled and barring a miracle its unlikely Intelligence or Reckless will get another season either which may mean CBS will go 0-3 in dramas. CBS usually cancels 1-2 veterans ech season depending on how many shows they introduce next fall (My bet is on back to 2 dramas)

    This May the veterans that will be cancelled are The Good Wife and The Mentalist. Both were renewed for this season unexpectedly since they were underperforming on Sundays but I guess CBS did not want to change sundays. They have no reason to renew The Mentalist for a seventh season because they don’t make money off syndication revenue (WB owns it) and the show is reportedly getting expensive. Also The Good Wife finally achieved syndication with Hallmark and Hulu putting it over 100 episodes, which means CBS doesn’t need it for a sixth season.

    Hawaii 5-0 is safe because along with Blue Bloods, CBS fully owns it and by the season end it will have 93 episodes. My guess is another season to get it over 100 couldn’t hurt the show especially when the only guaranteed renewals drama wise are CSI, NCIS, Criminal Minds, NCIS LA, Person of Interest and Elementary. Both 2010 dramas will get fifth seasons.

    @Todd36 – HIMYM is done after this season and the finale will air in May. No tenth season, no stretching it out any longer. Full 100% closure. So by that time Jason Segel is free to do as many movies as he wants and Cobie Smulders can join Shield Season 2.

  • Dan

    @Michelle – I don’t think there’s a deal in place for Blue Bloods though unlike The Good Wife I can’t imagine why any network wouldn’t want to pick it up for syndication. It will likely be an easy sell though.

  • Dee

    Go ahead and cancel Mom and Dads please. Worst shows ever.

  • Dee

    I am not gunna lie. Shelving Mike and Molly for Mom, an untried entity, was full-on stupidity on CBS’s part.

  • Dan

    @Dee – I think its more likely Mike & Molly will replace We Are Men then Mom. Mom will be kept for a full season by the Chuck Lorre brand and the unfamiliar single camera We Are Men won’t be a welcome prescense to Monday nights. My guess is that it will premiere tonight worse than Mom and Partners and airing at 8:30 seems like a worse slot in general. It will likely air for 2-3 weeks and Mike & Molly will return by November 4. Mike & Molly could replace The Millers but that show has a better lead in.

    That being said I think Mom is safer than We Are Men.

  • Dan

    At least CBS didn’t go the stupid route and schedule Mike & Molly for Saturdays when they clearly intend for the show to replace a failed comedy.

  • shogun

    I like the bold predictions, but I have one quibble. The Good Wife and the Mentalist aren’t on the list. Their likely cancellation is the only thing that push’s H50 into likely renewal for me.

  • Jiji Moran

    Of that whole list, I’m only watching “TBBT”, “LO:SVU”, and “Modern Family”.

    As for the new shows, they are NOT novel, they are plots and characters seen in countless other shows before.

    The show “Hostages”… seemed far fetched from the beginning, I mean… a whole season with a family kept as hostages and the president’s operation looming on? Okay, so “Under the Dome” spent the whole season on that first week and a half after the dome came down, but lots happened in “UTD”.

    About Michael J. Fox’s comedy… it may be funny to some, but I do not find making fun of someone’s incurable and cruel disease any amusing. I think the show could’ve done better if they had accept MJF as a regular person and kept his illness out of theme.

    About Robin Williams, he is old and still wants to make the same kind of comedy he did when he was 20. For me, Robin Williams looks sad when he smiles, it makes me want to cry. He is good at serious stuff, too, so he could be doing drama, with a little comedy thrown in.

    About Ann Farris, she’s amazing, but the new comedy is another same-o, same-o. I wonder if she would ever do “Scary Movie” again, she and the Wayans and the rest of the cast of past “SM” were dearly missed from the last spun.

  • Katherine

    Shotgun, TGW and the Mentalist weren’t on the list because they hadn’t premiered yet. As the text says shows have to air one ep to be on this list.

  • moraliste

    I don’t have a list right in front of me, but as a member of the captive media audience for 55 years, my sense is that most shows that feature major movie has-beens ( Geena Davis, Ray Liotta, James Wood et al)fail. The name-recognition Hollywood thrives on doesn’t work without something backing it up. As for Mindy, I gave her a fair shot and her show is just air with a few chips at the bottom of the bag. Yesterday I read a five page puff piece in Parade about what a genius she is. From now on I’ll factor in puff pieces in general interest magazines like TV supplements and Entertainment Weekly as a kiss of death portent.

  • Carl

    I think Revolution has a solid chance of another season, with budget cuts. Depends on whether they keep falling.

  • gerry

    that sure is bold, and i think much of it could be wrong. i understand something has to go up as the situation is now, but it seems drastic and much too early for some of these predictors. i find the parenthood declaration especially upsetting because at least nbc knows with this show its 10 pm ratings aren’t going to slide into the abyss like every other show they’ve put up there. at most i would say parenthood is on the bubble.

  • W

    Seriously, I cannot believe these predictions after only 1 episode of these shows. H50 is already in syndication!!! What about the other new shows and comedies??? Only time will tell!!!

  • Dan

    Some predictions are easy to guarantee especially of older shows. New series are a bit harder unless they are outright flops.

  • The Cool Max

    I say WAY too soon for a bubble watch, when most of these shows only had 1 episode!

  • Cali

    I truly hope Parenthood doesn’t get cancelled! It’s one of the best shows I’ve religiously watched in years! The acting is top notch, the writing is excellent. I just hate that it’s getting bounced around. :(

  • Bella Bellini

    I hope they give Revolution a chance :/

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