ABC: 'Lucky 7' & 'Betrayal' Are Certain To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 1st, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Running-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-29, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The Neighbors (F) :cry: :cry: 0.48
Lucky 7 :oops: (canceled 10/4) 0.56
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.59
Betrayal :oops: 0.65
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.87
Back In The Game :) :) :) :) 0.95
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.95
Trophy Wife :) :) :) :) 1.00
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
The Goldbergs :) :) :) :) 1.34
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.47
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.82
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. :) :) :) :) 2.04

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The Cancellation Bear had to move quickly to get the fact that Lucky 7 and Betrayal are both certain to be canceled into a headline, since with such decisively bad results, the earlier, the better!

Last season, no new Fall ABC show premiered with such relatively (vs. other ABC shows) low ratings. For those with short memories, Last Resort began with a 2.2 rating and lasted  10 episodes, and 666 Park Avenue started with a 2.1 rating and lasted 9 episodes. As always, no guesses from the bear when he will dine on them, but there's no question both of those shows are #bearchow.

Interesting to note some differences vs. the Bubble Watch. After week 1, the Cancellation Bear doesn't see either Nashville or Back In The Game as #bearchow, but as always, predictions can change quickly this early in the season.

The ABC syndication gods will demand that Once Upon A Time and Revenge be renewed for a fourth season. For that reason, they're both certain to be renewed, effectively regardless of their third season ratings.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • AlanHaliwell

    Are you sure Thats right for the Middle The middle Is a real strong performer

  • dantas

    Why does Agents Of S.H.I.E.L.D. have only 4 smileys? It should have 5 for now… right?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Are you sure Thats right for the Middle The middle Is a real strong performer”

    As a matter of fact, it was a mistake!

    Now fixed.

    “Why does Agents Of S.H.I.E.L.D. have only 4 smileys? It should have 5 for now… right?”

    I don’t give new shows 5 for a couple weeks, at least. And I know now why Robert switched Bubble Watch to just 3 categories.

  • omabin

    I am glad to have the renewal cancel index back in full force.

    My predictions:
    Modern Family: Certain Renewal
    The Goldbergs: Likely Renewal (or Bubble)
    Last Man Standing: Likely Renewal
    The Middle: Certain Renewal
    Trophy Wife: Bubble
    Back in the Game: Bubble
    The Neighbors: Likely Cancellation

    Once Upon a Time: Certain Renewal
    Agents of Shield: Certain Renewal
    Revenge: Certain Renewal
    Grey’s Anatomy: Certain Renewal
    Castle: Certain Renewal
    Nashville: Bubble
    Betrayal: Certain Cancellation
    Lucky 7: Certain Cancellation

  • Dan

    Why is Shield only likely to be renewed, because its only aired one episode?

  • rob60990

    Revenge cetain renewal. Thats right. :D

  • Cle

    All predictions are right..

  • skyfi

    Shield is certain, OUAT is bubble.

  • Revenge

    Is this using OUAT, Revenge, and Betrayal’s final numbers?

  • QW

    This has been a bad week for David Zabel, the writer behind both Lucky 7 and Betrayal.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Is this using OUAT, Revenge, and Betrayal’s final numbers?”

    Yes, we have them, but Sara hasn’t been able to post them yet.

  • Fake Me Out

    Early in the season I expect there to be differences, sometimes big differences between Bubble Watch & the Index since the Index, as I understand it, is what happens if the season ends now and Bubble Watch peers into that distant future known as next May. In fact, if the two are nearly identical then a) why do we need the 2 and b) who’s cooking the books to make them identical this early in the season?

    ymmv

  • JR35

    OUAT stood at a 2.6 in the final ratings (based on the weekly top 25 post). Not sure about the other two, but, regardless, not good numbers for ABC’s 10 p.m. show. That slot just isn’t working.

  • Fake Me Out

    OK, now I’m confused … just noticed the following:

    Bubble Watch quote

    Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

    Renew/Cancel Index quote

    Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014.

    Which statement is accurate and which is in error?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Which statement is accurate and which is in error?”

    Both accurate.

    R/C statement is referring to the timing of the cancellations predicted, not the methodology used.

    Could better grammar have been used? Perhaps.

    Call my editor.

  • BenA

    Why does Nashville have a good chance of getting renewed like Castle? Castle’s retention rating was way stronger than Nashville. Plus, it’s not even close to syndication yet. Castle should be certain renewed while Nashville should be on the bubble. #Smh

  • M

    why doesn’t Castle have 5 smileys?

  • HV

    When will the Sunday final numbers be posted?

  • steven

    Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue both lasted for 13 episodes.

  • Dan

    Never mind question answered.

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