ABC: 'Lucky 7' & 'Betrayal' Are Certain To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 1st, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Running-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-29, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The Neighbors (F) :cry: :cry: 0.48
Lucky 7 :oops: (canceled 10/4) 0.56
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.59
Betrayal :oops: 0.65
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.87
Back In The Game :) :) :) :) 0.95
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.95
Trophy Wife :) :) :) :) 1.00
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
The Goldbergs :) :) :) :) 1.34
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.47
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.82
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. :) :) :) :) 2.04

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The Cancellation Bear had to move quickly to get the fact that Lucky 7 and Betrayal are both certain to be canceled into a headline, since with such decisively bad results, the earlier, the better!

Last season, no new Fall ABC show premiered with such relatively (vs. other ABC shows) low ratings. For those with short memories, Last Resort began with a 2.2 rating and lasted  10 episodes, and 666 Park Avenue started with a 2.1 rating and lasted 9 episodes. As always, no guesses from the bear when he will dine on them, but there's no question both of those shows are #bearchow.

Interesting to note some differences vs. the Bubble Watch. After week 1, the Cancellation Bear doesn't see either Nashville or Back In The Game as #bearchow, but as always, predictions can change quickly this early in the season.

The ABC syndication gods will demand that Once Upon A Time and Revenge be renewed for a fourth season. For that reason, they're both certain to be renewed, effectively regardless of their third season ratings.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Maximillian

    I stand firm on this, if Nashville performs in the 1.6-2.0 range again this season, it will get renewed. Its an ABC production for extra syndication incentive, would probably sell great into syndication (I can think of several channels that this would fit perfect on), and its an odd ball fit after a comedy line-up – I think ABC had their expectations set at a certain level.

    If it tanks this season, it’ll go, but I think ABC wants to see this through to season 4. I could see it being moved to Sundays after Revenge or Fridays in its final season.

  • Maximillian

    To the Nashville retentionistas, no show in that 10pm timeslot has held great retention in the past 3 years. Why act surprised now?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “why doesn’t Castle have 5 smileys?”

    My arbitrary line between 4 and 5 is 1.00

  • Mitchell

    The best part of having five categories in the RC index over three in the Bubble Watch is that the comments can be filled with people whining over the largely insignificant differences between four and five smileys. It’s either this or fantasy schedules.

  • BenA

    I’m not saying Nashville should be cancelled, I’m saying that it has a less chance of getting renewed than Castle. If Nashville can stay steady like last season, it’ll be renewed.

  • BenA

    Meaningless?

    Nashville had Modern Family to help it do well. It was down 25% from its series premiere.

    Castle on the other hand did not drop at all.

  • M

    So then why does POI have 5 smileys when is has 0.8 or so and castle has 0.95? Just for syndication?

  • Fake Me Out

    @Bill

    Sorry, both can not be accurate. If there is a grammatical error, fine, it just means that error makes one of the statements in error … so what is your editors number then? ;-)

    BTW, I think you should be the one who, early on, has wildly inaccurate predictions since you have so few data points to work with. As the season progresses you’ll have a much better picture and the Index comes into better focus and much more accurate predictions as to what happens.

    Take this Index and Trophy Wife as an example … I think you should have it as 5 stars since it would likely be renewed if the season ended today. As the season progresses however I’d expect, though I could be wrong, you would see it fall to 4 stars, 3 stars and finally by late spring, if not earlier, 2 or even 1 star(s). That, to me anyways, is what I would expect from the Index.

    ymmv

  • Maximillian

    @BenA – MF was also down heavily from last years premiere that launched Nashville. ABC launches MF 1hr premieres each year to support that 10pm slot, and that 10pm slot (Revenge and Nashville both) have seen 40-55% retention of that premiere.

    Its too early to tell any of this right now anyways. Wait another 4-5 weeks for more data points. Its all speculative at this point.

  • BenA

    @Bill Gorman

    I actually have read this link many times. I was just stating my opinion and I hope you respect my opinion. I respect yours. I apologize for any attack. Nothing personal.

    One thing I do agree about: I agree that Last Man Standing, despite its close to syndication is on the bubble due to it hitting series lows (even for a Friday!).

  • BenA

    @Maximillian

    Thank you for stating your opinion. It is a little too early.

  • omabin

    Damn just realized that Revenge was adjusted down since it has the same number as Trophy Wife. That sucks!

  • Jen

    Isn’t Betrayal a limited series anyway? At least that’s what I read. So it’ll end either way after 13 episodes.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Isn’t Betrayal a limited series anyway? At least that’s what I read. So it’ll end either way after 13 episodes.”

    If Betrayal had good ratings, it would be renewed.

    It doesn’t. It will be canceled.

  • omabin

    I don’t get why people don’t get the concept of limited series. It just means that its season lasts only half a normal season (13/15 eps). The Following, Under the Dome, Dexter, Homeland, True Blood etc are all limited series. They can come back and be renewed but they cannot have their order extended. A mini series is something that is not supposed to come back at all. Under the Dome and Betrayal were always promoted as limited series, not mini series!

  • Tom Shaw

    There are real differences between the logic of the R/C Index and Bubble Watch, which will be most apparent in the early weeks:

    The R/C Index is simply how well all the episodes have performed so far this season, modified by closeness to syndication and if they air on Friday.

    Bubble Watch uses those relative rankings as a starting point and then uses a combination of historical trends and pet theories to guess how things will look at the end of the year.

    For a concrete example:

    All of ABC’s Tuesday & Wednesday comedies started out at over 90% of ABC’s scripted average.
    By the logic of the R/C Index, go print out ABC’s 2014-2015 comedy schedule now – everything’s back!
    Bubble Watch would say “Hold on there. First off, rookies almost always fall more from their seasonal premieres than veterans, so if those new comedies started off at the bottom before their Week 2 drops, it doesn’t bode well. Furthermore, ABC has midseason comedies waiting in the wings – at least one show will either get a short backorder or no backorder, and it won’t be Modern Family.”

    As to why we “need” two, I’m pretty sure the answer is “Sunday traffic was low”.

  • Tommy M.

    @ omabin,
    I don’t get why people don’t get the concept of limited series. It just means that its season lasts only half a normal season (13/15 eps).

    Checkout Wikipedia’s explanation for a limited series. The phrase is used more in the comic book world, but it’s interchangeable with miniseries. The difference between limited series and miniseries is that a mini series is typically shorter than a limited series.

  • Erin C

    Why is Nashville certain to be cancelled? The ratings were okay to start and then raised significantly with dvr’s. At worst I’d give it a bubble rater than a certain to be cancelled.

  • Tommy M.

    @ Erin C, Nashville isn’t certain to be cancelled. Bill has it listed as likely renewal. DVR ratings are pretty meaningless BTW.

  • catsrule

    Wasn’t Castle already renewed for two seasons?

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