ABC: 'Lucky 7' & 'Betrayal' Are Certain To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 1st, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Running-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-29, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The Neighbors (F) :cry: :cry: 0.48
Lucky 7 :oops: (canceled 10/4) 0.56
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.59
Betrayal :oops: 0.65
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.87
Back In The Game :) :) :) :) 0.95
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.95
Trophy Wife :) :) :) :) 1.00
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
The Goldbergs :) :) :) :) 1.34
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.47
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.82
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. :) :) :) :) 2.04

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The Cancellation Bear had to move quickly to get the fact that Lucky 7 and Betrayal are both certain to be canceled into a headline, since with such decisively bad results, the earlier, the better!

Last season, no new Fall ABC show premiered with such relatively (vs. other ABC shows) low ratings. For those with short memories, Last Resort began with a 2.2 rating and lasted  10 episodes, and 666 Park Avenue started with a 2.1 rating and lasted 9 episodes. As always, no guesses from the bear when he will dine on them, but there's no question both of those shows are #bearchow.

Interesting to note some differences vs. the Bubble Watch. After week 1, the Cancellation Bear doesn't see either Nashville or Back In The Game as #bearchow, but as always, predictions can change quickly this early in the season.

The ABC syndication gods will demand that Once Upon A Time and Revenge be renewed for a fourth season. For that reason, they're both certain to be renewed, effectively regardless of their third season ratings.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • HV

    Here are my predictions:
    Note: A show will not be moved to very likely renewed/canceled unless it has aired at least TWO episodes this season.

    VERY LIKELY CANCELED
    The Neighbors (1.1)

    LIKELY CANCELED
    Lucky 7 (1.3)
    Back in the Game (2.2)
    Betrayal (1.5)

    IN THE MIDDLE
    The Goldbergs
    Trophy Wife
    Nashville
    Last Man Standing

    LIKELY RENEWED
    Castle
    Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.
    The Middle
    Modern Family
    Grey’s Anatomy
    Once Upon a Time
    Revenge

    VERY LIKELY RENEWED

  • HV

    Oops, those numbers after some of those shows are their average rating this season. I meant to delete those when posting the comment.

  • eridapo

    Hey Bill…

    Given that Castle has been doing terrific for TNT, and ABC apparently renegotiated the deal with TNT for season 5 and 6 of syndication (to ABC’s Benefit)…

    Why not have Castle as certain to be renewed specially in light of the performance in its first two nights..

    Will LMS and Neighbor be bear chow or will the Friday Halo save them from the bear…

    As to the rest, I agree. OUAT and Revenge will get their 4 the season to get them close to 90 episodes….Though I don’t think Revenge will do that great in syndication whereas I do see OUAT being a fixture in ABC Family or something..

  • THE OLD MAN

    Agree that Lucky 7 & Betrayal are Bear CHOW, but would have added TN to the list

    REV & OUAT are locks for renewal

  • Scott M

    Isn’t Last Man Standing in it’s 3rd season as well? Shouldn’t it have the almost guarantee for syndication renewal? Looking on IMDB it’s got 42 episdoes through the first 2 seasons.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “sn’t Last Man Standing in it’s 3rd season as well? Shouldn’t it have the almost guarantee for syndication renewal? Looking on IMDB it’s got 42 episdoes through the first 2 seasons.”

    It is, but it’s not owned by ABC. I won’t go lower than “toss up” for it because it’s in a third season, but with those relative ratings, even on a Friday, I hesitate to move it higher.

  • One

    Sorry, folks, no insane ranting on the ABC posts for me this year. The show I want most to succeed has succeeded the most. I’ll be back later to let y’all know if that’s actually a good thing, since I haven’t actually seen the Agents of SHIELD pilot.

  • nrc

    bill, how do you calculate the renew/cancel index?

  • Casey

    I say Last Man Standing gets renewed because a deal gets cut that ABC can’t pass up that will allow Fox to get the episodes they need for syndication. It might not be Sony/Till Death level bargains but it will be worth ABC’s while.

    The retention argument is ridiculous for a lot of well-documented reasons. But here’s one more that doesn’t get mentioned quite so often.

    It really doesn’t matter if Nashville has better retention than Castle because neither show is retaining its audience out of a similar show. The lead-in to Castle is a reality show, Nashville’s lead-in is a comedy.

    If you buy the argument that retention matters, then you have to believe that ABC is planning its schedule to assure maximum retention. So then kindly explain to me how it is logical that Castle is a good companion in style, tone and substance with Dancing with the Stars?

    Using CBS as an example, Elementary follows Two & a Half Men. If I tried I don’t think I could come up with a more mismatched pair of CBS shows than that one, with the possible exception of 2 Broke Girls and Elementary. The 2 shows are so widely divergent that I can’t imagine CBS thinking the crossover audience would be very big.

    Men did a 2.9 and Elementary a 2.1. However, not every person in that 2.1 rating for Elementary watched Two & a Half Men the half hour previous and not everyone that watched Two and a Half Men stayed to watch Elementary. That’s obviously evident by the fact that had they done so, Elementary would have done a higher rating. But just because the difference was .8 doesn’t mean that’s all the people who tuned out when Men was over. It is possible that Elementary lost more than a 1.0 rating off the men’s audience but gained .2 or .3 back off of people who tuned in for Elementary but weren’t going to watch Two and a Half Men anyway.

    So really, good luck even measuring retention in the first place. That’s another reason it is completely useless as a measure of show quality. Plus, people have remotes, changing channels when one show is over isn’t that much of a time consuming process.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “bill, how do you calculate the renew/cancel index?”

    Explained at the bottom of the post.

  • dave

    Hasn’t lucky 7 only aired 1 episode and allready likely cancelled?

  • Oliver

    Rough week for David Zabel, the creator of Lucky 7 and Betrayal.

  • Ultima

    @Tommy M
    The difference between limited series and miniseries is that a mini series is typically shorter than a limited series.

    One of the most important differences, at least in my view, is how the show is aired. A limited series typically airs as a regular weekly series, while a miniseries is typically shown with multiple airings during a week.

    As for judging it entirely based on length, remember that War and Remembrance was a mini-series, yet ran for 30 hours, longer than a full season for most dramas.

    @omabin
    A mini series is something that is not supposed to come back at all.

    While a mini-series is typically a stand-alone project, it’s not unheard of for them to have sequels (initially intended or not) or for a successful one to spawn off a regular TV series (e.g. the original 1980’s “V”).

  • Ultima

    @dave
    Hasn’t lucky 7 only aired 1 episode and allready likely cancelled?

    Actually, he’s predicting that it’s certain to be canceled and I think most people agree. The real question is how quickly will ABC pull it from the schedule.

    Also, to your point, it’s completely reasonable to predict a cancellation after a very low rated premiere. While there are examples of shows with awful starts recovering and even becoming megahits (e.g. Cheers, House), it is extremely rare.

  • CBSviewer

    ABC next season:

    MONDAY
    8:00 – Dancing with the Stars
    10:00 – Castle

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – Marvel’s Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.
    9:00 – NEW COMEDY
    9:30 – NEW COMEDY
    10:00 – NEW DRAMA

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – The Middle
    8:30 – NEW COMEDY
    9:00 – Modern Family
    9:30 – NEW COMEDY
    10:00 – NEW DRAMA

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – Once Upon a Time in Wonderland / NEW DRAMA
    9:00 – Grey’s Anatomy
    10:00 – Scandal

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Last Man Standing
    8:30 – Suburgatory
    9:00 – Shark Tank
    10:00 – 20/20

    SUNDAY
    8:00 – Once Upon a Time
    9:00 – Revenge
    10:00 – Nashville

  • tv#1

    I feel like unless Revenge’s ratings completely fall apart it will be renewed. If it can stay around a 2.0 it should be in good shape. If it drops down to the low 1’s I don’t think syndication can save it. Hopefully, it is able to rate well.

  • Em J

    It’s a shame Lucky 7 didn’t succeed. I liked it, but then again I love The Syndicate and always have that to go back to :) <3 I would want it to air a complete season though! But I know that most likely won't happen.

  • HV

    @CBSviewer
    Wow. That’s a lot of cancelations! The only thing I disagree with, and I only partially disagree here, is that I think that ABC will get rid of their Tuesday comedy block if they renew only Middle, ModFam, LMS, and Suburgatory.

  • CBSviewer

    @ HV

    I agree with you but I don’t know if ABC will premiere two dramas after SHIELD. I think they could move Castle to Tuesday at 10 and Premiere Dramas on Monday at 10 and Tuesday at 9.

  • Dan S

    I think as early as tomorrow we’ll hear of the bears 1st meal on Lucky 7. I think it could go below 1.0 tonight & ABC won’t tolerate that. Hopefully for them they have a series in the wings ready to replace it by sweeps period.

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