ABC: 'Lucky 7' & 'Betrayal' Are Certain To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 1st, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Running-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-29, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The Neighbors (F) :cry: :cry: 0.48
Lucky 7 :oops: (canceled 10/4) 0.56
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.59
Betrayal :oops: 0.65
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.87
Back In The Game :) :) :) :) 0.95
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.95
Trophy Wife :) :) :) :) 1.00
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
The Goldbergs :) :) :) :) 1.34
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.47
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.82
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. :) :) :) :) 2.04

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The Cancellation Bear had to move quickly to get the fact that Lucky 7 and Betrayal are both certain to be canceled into a headline, since with such decisively bad results, the earlier, the better!

Last season, no new Fall ABC show premiered with such relatively (vs. other ABC shows) low ratings. For those with short memories, Last Resort began with a 2.2 rating and lasted  10 episodes, and 666 Park Avenue started with a 2.1 rating and lasted 9 episodes. As always, no guesses from the bear when he will dine on them, but there's no question both of those shows are #bearchow.

Interesting to note some differences vs. the Bubble Watch. After week 1, the Cancellation Bear doesn't see either Nashville or Back In The Game as #bearchow, but as always, predictions can change quickly this early in the season.

The ABC syndication gods will demand that Once Upon A Time and Revenge be renewed for a fourth season. For that reason, they're both certain to be renewed, effectively regardless of their third season ratings.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • HV

    @CBSviewer
    True. ABC really should move Castle. I wonder if they will though. But if they do, Tuesday at 10:00 probably the place they’d put it.

  • Lynn

    These shows have had one episode and you are already writing them off? Criticizing is one thing, but mean spirited bashing is quite another. These shows you so callously refer to as “bear chow” are jobs for hundreds of people and yet you seem pleased by their poor performance. I know that this is a fickle business, but you could treat the writers, actors, and fans of these shows with a little respect by showing a little class.

  • Lynn

    @Ultima

    This is precisely what upsets me about articles like this. I understand being a critic you’re required to make judgments based on what you’ve seen, but wouldn’t you hate it if movie reviewers only reviewed the first ten minutes and then said, “We’ll, it’s certain to be crap. No chance of it getting any better.”? Would you bother watching the rest?

    I fear that is exactly what happens with a lot of these shows. They get off to a not-so-great start and somebody deems them “bear chow” or something equally rude. Viewers don’t bother tuning in again. Why bother investing in a show that’s certain to be cancelled? The show is doomed before it even gets started.

  • HV

    My prediction for ABC fall 2014:

    SUNDAY
    7:00 America’s Funniest Home Videos
    8:00 Once Upon a Time
    9:00 Revenge
    10:00 NEW-Forever

    MONDAY
    8:00 Dancing with the stars
    10:00 Castle

    TUESDAY
    8:00 Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.
    9:00 NEW
    10:00 NEW-No Way Back

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 The Middle
    8:30 NEW-Fresh Off the Boat
    9:00 Modern Family
    9:30 NEW-Modern Family spin-off
    10:00 NEW

    THURSDAY
    8:00 Once Upon a Time in Wonderland
    9:00 Grey’s Anatomy
    10:00 Scandal

    FRIDAY
    8:00 Last Man Standing
    8:30 Suburgatory or Mixology
    9:00 Shark Tank
    10:00 20/20

    Midseason:
    2 new comedies
    4 new dramas

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “These shows have had one episode and you are already writing them off? Criticizing is one thing, but mean spirited bashing is quite another. These shows you so callously refer to as “bear chow” are jobs for hundreds of people and yet you seem pleased by their poor performance. I know that this is a fickle business, but you could treat the writers, actors, and fans of these shows with a little respect by showing a little class.”

    Do you disagree with the prediction, or simply the fact that it’s being made, instead of hushed up, out of “respect”?

    Is your disagreement really with the character of the bear and the funny bits of writing associated with that?

    And while nobody likes to see people lose their job, it’s both the nature of the business, and the only way NEW people get jobs next season. Are you wishing continued unemployment on all those hoping for jobs next season?

    Do you also complain about reviewers who tell people to not watch shows before they even air?

    Or are you just a disappointed fan of (or attached in some other way to) one of these shows?

  • Tomcatt630

    So what if this site calls a show ‘bear chow’. That’s the reality of TV Biz.

    If you can’t get ‘butts in seats’ aka eyeballs watching, you are toast.

  • Lynn

    @Bill Gorman No I don’t object to the character of the bear, and if you think that was the point I’m wasting my time. I didn’t see Lucky 7 but I disagree with the idea of anyone declaring a show as “certain to be cancelled” after one episode. As to Betrayal, I watched it, and I had my own issues with it, but it takes more than one episode before I write a show off.

    I simply wish shows were given a chance to develop before they were snatched off the air. I know networks make their decisions quickly, but I just can’t see how an article like this helps a show that is already struggling.

  • ToXiX

    @Lynn

    I watched Lucky 7, and I really enjoyed it, I will watch it tonight and every week until it’s pulled from the schedule.
    But the show is destined for cancellation. An article like this helps people not get too invested in a show that will not be on the air long. Go whine somewhere else.

  • Lynn

    @ToXiX

    Thank Goodness I don’t need an article to help me decide what to watch and I wasn’t whining–I was simply trying to suggest a way to consider the thoughts and feelings of others, but clearly, that’s not what you do here. Sorry I stumbled onto the link and even more sorry I wasted your time…and mine.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I disagree with the idea of anyone declaring a show as “certain to be cancelled after one episode.”

    If it’s a very likely correct prediction, why wait? If it declines further tonight, ABC may pull it before next week and the chance to predict is lost.

    “I simply wish shows were given a chance to develop before they were snatched off the air. I know networks make their decisions quickly, but I just can’t see how an article like this helps a show that is already struggling.”

    I see, you’re upset at how the industry works and are just taking it out on the bear.

    If it’ll make you feel any better the bear has absolutely no effect on TV decision making. The execs make the decisions, the bear just predicts them.

  • Dan

    Betrayal will last the full 13 episode order as scheduled likely because its serialized and its already planned to be replaced, however Lucky 7 could be removed as quickly as next week as replaced with Primetime specials until Killer Women or something replaces it.

    My guess is Goldbergs, Trophy Wife and Back in the Game will all get full orders and Super Fun Night will likely get cancelled because of its timeslot.

    If I were ABC I would put Goldbergs at 8:30 (because it seems like it would pair well with the Middle, put Trophy Wife at 9:30 on Wednesdays (because that show has a Modern Family vibe to it) and if they cancel Super Fun Night then move Back in the Game to Tuesdays with Suburgatory.

  • Anthony Parello (AP076)

    Odds are quite good that Lynn was Kathy Bates ;-)

  • Oliver

    Let’s say ABC cancels Lucky 7 and Betrayal tomorrow, what would ABC replace them with?

  • Dan

    @Oliver – Well ABC could replace Lucky 7 with Primetime specials but my guess is that they will leave Lucky 7 on for a few more weeks. Betrayal has a better chance of staying on during it’s entire order due to the fact that it was preplanned to only have 13 episodes and expectations are that Sundays at 10 are lower rated than Tuesdays at 10.

    My guess is that ABC will keep both of them on and just burn through their orders. ABC isn’t a network known for replacing a new drama in the fall if one flops. Its much easier to just let the series run their courses.

  • Justin121

    Cancel:

    Betrayal – Lucky 7 – Back in the Game – Trophy Wife

    Voila, 3 hours for 3 new dramas.

    No need to cancel anything else.

  • Justin121

    I expect Lucky 7 to be pulled within 2 weeks, but Betrayal to last 8-9 episodes.

  • Jase L.

    The season premiere of The Middle got a 2.5 in the demo. Above ABC’s scripted average so far (which is a little inflated by Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.’s premiere), but not hugely so. The Middle will likely look a lot better in a few weeks; I can imagine it will stay fairly steady, while the ratings for a few of the network’s other shows will likely decrease.

  • Jase L.

    That was weird; before I posted my comment, I could see only the first one. Now I see there’s four pages worth, which makes mine look rather out of place…

  • Dan

    @HV – I think it’s entirely possible CBS moves Castle by next season. Clearly no show at 10pm on Tuesday is working so airing a veteran there might work. It didn’t work with Private Practice but that show was losing steam anyway.

    They have nothing to lose, because if Castle airs Tuesdays at 10, it would be a chance to see if the show could air on it’s own (Since for 5 years the show has always aired Mondays at 10 post DWTS and has never aired anywhere else) ABC would then air a new drama post DWTS on Mondays at 10. The problem with this is that its likely both NBC and CBS will have new dramas airing in that slot so it would be hard for 3 new dramas to compete head to head.

    Its hard to say exactly what will happen next season. For the rest of the season however its safe to say that Castle will stay put.

  • Dan

    @Justin121 – I agree that Lucky 7 only has a few weeks left but I expect Betrayal to last the full 13 episodes due to ABC’s scheduling and the lack of replacements as well as the series’ serial nature and the fact that the story is wrapped up after 13 eps making it like a miniseries.

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