ABC: 'Lucky 7' & 'Betrayal' Are Certain To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 1st, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


Running-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-29, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The Neighbors (F) :cry: :cry: 0.48
Lucky 7 :oops: (canceled 10/4) 0.56
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.59
Betrayal :oops: 0.65
Nashville :) :) :) :) 0.87
Back In The Game :) :) :) :) 0.95
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.95
Trophy Wife :) :) :) :) 1.00
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
The Goldbergs :) :) :) :) 1.34
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.47
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.82
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. :) :) :) :) 2.04

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The Cancellation Bear had to move quickly to get the fact that Lucky 7 and Betrayal are both certain to be canceled into a headline, since with such decisively bad results, the earlier, the better!

Last season, no new Fall ABC show premiered with such relatively (vs. other ABC shows) low ratings. For those with short memories, Last Resort began with a 2.2 rating and lasted  10 episodes, and 666 Park Avenue started with a 2.1 rating and lasted 9 episodes. As always, no guesses from the bear when he will dine on them, but there's no question both of those shows are #bearchow.

Interesting to note some differences vs. the Bubble Watch. After week 1, the Cancellation Bear doesn't see either Nashville or Back In The Game as #bearchow, but as always, predictions can change quickly this early in the season.

The ABC syndication gods will demand that Once Upon A Time and Revenge be renewed for a fourth season. For that reason, they're both certain to be renewed, effectively regardless of their third season ratings.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Simon

    @Bill Gorman or anyone who can answer this:

    When do the Big-4 nets announce their full season pick-ups? I know it’s different with each of the Big-4, just curious!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “When do the Big-4 nets announce their full season pick-ups? I know it’s different with each of the Big-4, just curious!”

    Info here:

    http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2013/09/16/which-new-fall-broadcast-tv-show-will-get-a-full-season-order-first-poll-2/201433/

  • Ted Craig

    The wild card with ABC is Super Fun Night, which debuts tonight.

  • fgfh

    Nooooo :( Poor Betrayal!

  • Simon

    @Bill Gorman
    Bah! How’d I miss that?! Slow day today/week thanks to this chest infection!

  • tommie

    I expect Lucky 7 to be pulled within 2 weeks, but Betrayal to last 8-9 episodes.

    I think it’s possible that ABC will end up airing all 13 episodes to be honest. 666 Park Avenue only got pulled last season because they wanted to try and do one last-ditch effort to get the combination of Happy Endings/Don’t Trust The Bitch going and I’m not sure they have anything this season they’ll want to try out in it’s timeslot before it’s replacement is scheduled to air.

  • simsalabim

    Agents of Shield is a huge dissapointment.
    Wrong channel, it belongs into the CW-Trash.

  • Justin121

    Once & RVG are supposed to run 11 episodes.

    Betrayal will run in sync with the Sunday dramas, but the last few episodes can be replaced with repeats and specials.

    ABC can’t pull 2 shows at once.

  • darius

    AGents of Shield went from 4.7 to 3.1 in a week?It might follow the footstepts of Flashforward and V

  • queeneeuq

    The Neighbors is safe now. After the Tuesday collapse and probably Back in trh Game.

  • tim gueguen

    Lucky 7 episode 2 apparently pulled a 0.7 for the 18-49 demographic. It’s pretty much a given it’s done.

  • Elijah

    To all the Castle haters saying it should be moved because it’s wasting the
    “gigantic” Dancing with the Stars leadin, how exactly is the 2.0 rating that DWTS got “gigantic”!?

    Castle should stay on Mondays where it is, and Dancing with the Stars maybe was a huge leadin 5 years ago, but its not 2008 anymore.

  • Dan

    All comedies seem down, Last Man Standing is safe by comparison, The Middle and Modern Family are veterans and The Neighbors is in between.

    As for the dramas, Lucky 7 will be pulled soon enough either this week or next. However Betrayal will last all 13 episodes.

    Comedy Wednesday might do better if The Goldbergs aired at 8:30 and Trophy Wife aired at 9:30.

  • Kata

    Seriously, what is the point of starting to watch a series when it is likely to be cancelled after just one show. Why get into it?

  • Cle

    This was my dream schedule for ABC after they announced their pick-ups & renewals last season. (Not caring which show is against what)

    Mon
    8pm-The Middle
    8.30pm-The Neighbors
    9pm-Shield
    10pm-Castle

    Tue
    8pm-Once Upon A Time
    9pm-OUAT in Wonderland/Killer Women
    10pm-Ressurection/Black Box

    Wed
    8pm-Modern Family
    8.30pm-Trophy Wife
    9pm-Revenge
    10pm-Betrayal/Mistresses (Move Lucky 7 to Summer)

    Thu
    8pm-Shark Tank
    9pm-Greys Anatomy
    10pm-Scandal

    Fri
    8pm-The Goldberg’s
    8.30pm-Back In The Game
    9pm-Last Man Standing
    9.30pm-Suburgratory
    10pm-20/20

    Sun
    8pm-DWTS
    10pm-Nashville

    Replacements-Super Fun Night, Mixology, Mind Games

  • Adam Decker

    While I am disappointed that some shows I don’t like have good ratings (which always happens and isn’t a big deal to me), I’m not sad with any of the shows that could get cancelled given their current ratings. Besides, my favorite show on this network isn’t covered here since it isn’t scripted.

  • Cle

    @Adam Decker
    Shark Tank

  • Networkman

    @Cle, I like your schedule. I do feel ABC should of been more serious about TGIF. Shark Tank really could of been used on Thursday against the Big Bang Theory or Sunday @7pm. I also felt it would be nice to have Modern Family move to 8pm to lead of the night on Wednesday. Lastly, I really wanted both Once Upon a Time and Revenge to move from Sunday. That would of required DWTS to move though.

  • Candy Clouds

    I have a feeling they’re going to give Lucky 7 one more chance since they haven’t announced a cancellation yet.

  • BenA

    Lucky 7 has been cancelled. It will be replaced by repeats of Scandal.

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