CW: The Syndication Gods Saved 'Nikita' For A 4th Season, And They'll Save 'Hart Of Dixie' Too

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 1st, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

bear_god

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-29, 2013):

Program Status
Hart Of Dixie :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Nikita final season

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When the Cancellation Bear predicted that woefully rated Nikita was likely to be renewed just a few weeks into the 2012-13 season, the doubters howled. They're much quieter now, after Nikita was renewed for a short fourth (and final) season.

The CW syndication gods will also demand that Hart Of Dixie be renewed for a fourth season. CBS' Les Moonves in a recent investor presentation surprisingly frankly all but admitted that the CW loses them money on an operating basis, but they (and Warner Brothers) make it up in the licensing value of the shows they create for the network. Shows that generate more episodes are far more valuable on a per episode basis.

Is this effectively the same CW post as last Tuesday? Of course it is. No CW shows have premiered yet, what would you have the bear do?

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Jeff (Canada)

    It’ll be interesting this season on The CW, as they seem to be going in a very genre-y direction. The Tomorrow People and The 100, along with Star-Crossed and The Originals. The only out-of-left-field new show will be Reign, it’ll be interesting to see how it meshes with the rest of The CW’s schedule.

  • rob60990

    Nikita still wont have enough episodes for syndicaton but who wants it? lol.

  • starship

    @rob60990
    A show can be syndicated with any number of episodes. 88 is just a common preference.

  • Fake Me Out

    Syndication used to be 100, and now 88 … general rule with many noted exceptions … little show called Star Trek with 79 episodes have a ‘fair’ amount of success in syndication if memory serves. ;-)

    ymmv

  • One

    So basically, CW is a syndie warehouse, but w/ more fashionable taste than CBS? I can’t help but chuckle at that. ;)

  • JJA

    As proof of how great a show Nikita is, the title of its series finale (now in production) is “Canceled.” This wins the award for best title ever!!

  • THE OLD MAN

    @ Bill

    As you’ve always stated: THE BEAR IS PATIENT!!

    He knows meals abound (especially this year!)

  • Dave

    Hart of Dixie will vacate to Fridays nest season and be paired with Top Model.

    The Flop Diaries and Floppity and the Beast will both be cancelled this season.

    If The CW plays their cards right, The Originals and The Tomorrow People will be break out hits for them. Maybe Star-Crossed will join them as well.

    Reign and The 100 look DOA.

  • Nasir

    I wonder which cable network will pick up the syndication rights for HoD. I can see ABCFamily airing them.

  • Tom

    I’m still not convinced that the CW deserves much attention on a ratings site like TVBTN. That’s because the CW (or, more properly, CBS/Warners)is more focused on wringing money out of low budget shows than on boosting ratings. That’s why I find it difficult to believe that CBS/Warners will ever walk away from any show that has (or is on schedule to have) at least 44 completed episodes. Remember, this is the “network” that tried to keep the hideously low rated L.A. Complex in production simply because it made money online.

    By rights, Nikita should have ended after its second season. Instead, it’ll finish with 73 episodes. Maybe Nikita’s abysmal ratings influenced the decision to shorten its final season. However, it’ll still have considerable value in syndication and on Netflix. So, based on that precedent, it’s hardly a stretch to predict that both HOD and BATB will still be on the air at least through the 2014 season.

  • Andrea

    Robert or Bill, explanation on how Nikita gets syndication with its limited number of episodes?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Robert or Bill, explanation on how Nikita gets syndication with its limited number of episodes?”

    Syndication is possible with fewer than 88 episodes, there are plenty of examples, but is more lucrative with 88+.

  • CBSviewer

    I know CW Shows did not Premiere yet but this is what I think will happen next season:

    MONDAY
    8:00 – The Tomorrow People
    9:00 – NEW DRAMA

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – The Originals
    9:00 – Supernatural

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – Arrow
    9:00 – NEW DRAMA

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – The Vampire Diaries
    9:00 – Supernatural Spin-off

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Hart of Dixie (Final Season)
    9:00 – America’s Next Top Model / (R)

    Thoughts ?

  • Lainey

    I bet “Dixie” actually DOES make money for the CW with it’s Netflix deal, iTunes, online views and the fact that it’s a cheap show to make…. it’s ratings have been almost EXACTLY the same for two seasons and probably for a third. It’s nothing to write home about but they’re solid. This show is like Gilmore Girls or 7th Heaven- come season 8 everyone will be surprised that it’s still around, but it probably will be!

  • Nasir

    @CBSViewer

    I can see the Arrow Spin-OFf (Flash) on the schedule also.

  • HV

    @CBSviewer
    The only thing I disagree with you about has to do with what shows get renewed/canceled, so I won’t argue yet.

  • Mike

    @cbs viewer

    I believe flash would bee on the scheduel next season and Possibly one of the midseason shows

  • CBSviewer

    @ Mike and Nasir

    I forgot Arrow spin-off sorry ! I can see it airing on Monday at 9 after The Tomorrow People.

  • Thats Underrated

    Nikita is severely underrated. Three fantastic seasons aired to an audience of about three people. It is a shame.

  • Tom

    @ Thats Underrated

    Actually, Nikita averaged about a 0.9/2.39 for season one. That’s not too bad for the CW. However, during season two, Nikita fell to a 0.5/1.54. That’s when it completed a two year story arc and should have been cancelled. Last season, the show fell even further to a 0.3/1.13. I still can’t decide if sinking to a 0.3 finally caused the CW to hold Nikita to a six episode fourth season. Emily Owens and Cult were cancelled with similar ratings, so even the CW may have limits when it comes to emphasizing profits over ratings.

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