CW: The Syndication Gods Saved 'Nikita' For A 4th Season, And They'll Save 'Hart Of Dixie' Too

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 1st, 2013

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

bear_god

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-29, 2013):

Program Status
Hart Of Dixie :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Nikita final season

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When the Cancellation Bear predicted that woefully rated Nikita was likely to be renewed just a few weeks into the 2012-13 season, the doubters howled. They're much quieter now, after Nikita was renewed for a short fourth (and final) season.

The CW syndication gods will also demand that Hart Of Dixie be renewed for a fourth season. CBS' Les Moonves in a recent investor presentation surprisingly frankly all but admitted that the CW loses them money on an operating basis, but they (and Warner Brothers) make it up in the licensing value of the shows they create for the network. Shows that generate more episodes are far more valuable on a per episode basis.

Is this effectively the same CW post as last Tuesday? Of course it is. No CW shows have premiered yet, what would you have the bear do?

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • DougF

    If people think nikita is ending on its own terms then I have a bridge to sell them. The only reason the phrase “ending on its own terms” is being used is because instead of CW outright canceling nikita after last season, they gave them 6 episodes to wrap up the series that will be burned off during one of the hiatuses.

    Maggie Q and Craig Silverstein can say they only wanted 4 seasons till they are blue in the face, but I would wager neither was saying that during Season 1 or 2.

    But ya I’m sure Maggie Q is fine with losing her six figure episode salary.

  • Jon

    Actually they were saying that at that time as well the show was always planned to run 3 to 4 seasons. If you don’t believe that either be my guest and dig up some old articles on that matter.

    Fans can be happy it will end on its own terms like shows like Fringe and without getting stale like Supernatural has definitely gotten can’t even remember when it was good and if people check Supernatual fanboards they agree that the show sucks now.

    That is the worst for a tv show to go passed its creative timeline. That you can’t even remember it was once good.

  • DougF

    I’ll pass on digging up articles because the burden of proof is on you. But I highly doubt they were saying Season 1 that they only wanted to go 3 or 4 seasons.

    Fringe didn’t go out on its own terms. It went to Friday night and was slowly dying and FOX gave it a mercy killing final 13-episode season.

    And as for Supernatural, you can go to all the fan boards you want but it’s just a small contingent of the same fangirls complaining about the smallest things. Who complain about small stuff like females being cast for a small part in one episode. There are far more people that still enjoy Supernatural.

  • AAA

    Fans bitching about SPN from season 1, it sucks according to fanboards starting season 3. No valid argument here. Ratings are somewhat demonstrate show popularity, and it wasn’t merciful for Nikita. I like the show, but it died it’s own death. Fringe did die too. SPN probably will die eventually, may be one more season to go. And yes, I still very much enjoy show, and no, I do not consider myself crazy at all. Very much sane.

  • Elijah

    I am hoping for some huge ratings (huge by CW standards) for Beauty and the Beast this monday !

  • Elijah

    I am so scared BATB is going to be cancelled this year :( Atleast it got 2 full 22 episode seasons. I am going to remain hopeful!

  • anti-bondoel

    DougF has it right.

    Please, don’t kid yourself Jonny boy.

    Typical Nikitard tactic, go after Supernatural. Guess what bud, at the end of the day Nikita is over and will fade away while Supernatural will continue on strong as ever. I’ve got nothing to be butthurt about.

    In fact, I think you’re the butthurt one here. Jealous that your show is a failure while Supernatural continues to be infinitely more popular? :D

  • Tom

    @ Elijah

    BATB is coming up on what I refer to as its “h*** no!” moment. That’s when the dwindling number of fans in the shows’ 18 – 34 target demographic must decide if it’s worth the agony of having to witness another season of arguably the worst series on television. Last season, BATB underperformed even The Secret Circle. That’s the show it replaced in the prime Thursday time slot after TVD. So, without a decent lead in, I predict that BATB’s ratings will decline even further. However, the good news is that the show will probably win another meaningless People’s Choice Award complements of the tweeners who don’t matter in the ratings but appear to represent a sizable chunk of the show’s social media population.

  • cas127

    “the licensing value of the shows they create for the network”

    I’m guessing this means *international*/cable licensing, as hour long shows don’t seem to dominate the US syndication markets. Comedies, game shows, talkers, and judge shows do. Hour long syndi shows air on the weekends in the US (on broadcast).

  • Kate

    Well, TO premiered lower than I thought it would. Interested to see how it holds up on Tuesday.

  • DougF

    @Cas127

    Supernatural is syndicated on TNT Mon – Friday at 9am-11am and is usually in the top 100 of daily cable ratings.

    The numbers it gets for seasons old episodes on some occasions has been comparable to a new episode of a CW show.

    For example yesterday’s airing of Season 7’s episode of “Adventures in Babysitting” at 11am got a 0.3 18-49 and 833k viewers. S3 of Nikita averaged a 0.3 and 1.14 million viewers.

  • V

    Agreed HOD is destined for Friday next year, the network is moving in different direction and they have very few slots open.

  • gb

    i’m happy that nikita is like fringe,who were saved by the networks,,i dont want cancellation

  • Samuel

    @Lainey

    Make no mistake that HoD will either be renewed and announced as a ‘final season’ or will be renewed and cancelled toward the end of the season. Its ratings are solid but unfortunately not enough to make profit.

    In regards to Nikita, The CW wouldn’t have renewed the series for a fourth and final shortened season if it didn’t have a syndication deal in place. I hear its deal with Netflix is going well and it will likely air re runs on cable in the future.

  • Samuel

    @DougF

    I’m sure Maggie Q is a little disappointed about losing her 6 figure salary, but the fact it’s being replaced with a 7 figure salary for her new film franchise probably helps.

  • DougF

    There is no way she is making seven figures for Divergent.

  • Dollface

    Don’t compair nikita to fringe by doing so you are insulting fringe which was by far in every way a better show. I

  • D

    They should’ve kept Top Model for a weekday. The ratings were 0.5/0.4 most times, even airing on summer fridays 9 pm. (Hart of Dixie and BATB just premiered, on a fall monday, at 0.4). Even though I’m a huge Nikita fan (great quality, bad ratings), I have to admit we had a pity renewal there, for six episodes, NOT reaching the magic 88, just for closure (like Gossip Girl), and that only happened because A. we are very passionate fans, and B. it aired on the crappiest timeslot on TV. Hart of Dixie have none of those factors working for them, and that’s why I predict cancellation. If Nikita and Gossip Girl were not renewed for full seasons, why would Hart of Dixie?
    Carrie Diaries and BATB are also goners. They’re doing 0.4 and lower, and are not getting better, so why get stuck for two more seasons with shows that shouldn’t have even been renewed in the first place. The Originals don’t look so good for me either. I’ll put it on the bubble for now. If I had to decide, I’d cancel it, but the CW will probably renew it for TVD’s sake and because they don’t have enough pilots (that’s why they renewed every show that’s not TVD, Arrow or Supernatural).
    My first predictions
    Nikita – final season – 0% chance of renewal
    Carrie Diaries – 0% chance of renewal
    Beauty and the Beast – 0% chance of renewal
    Hart of Dixie – 30% chance of renewal, no way it’s a full season 4 though
    Reign – 35% chance of renewal (would put it on 50% if not for the TVD lead-in, that puts a lot of pressure to succeed)
    The Tomorrow People – 55% chance of renewal
    The Originals – 65% chance of renewal
    Arrow – 99% chance of renewal
    The Vampire Diaries – 100% chance of renewal
    Supernatural – 100% chance of renewal

  • pa3k

    What about Renew/Cancel Index today??????

    Way NO info about today Renew/Cancel Index???????

  • Brandy

    @D GG wasnt renewed for a full final season cause it was already past 88_100 episodes needed for syndication and the main 3 castmembers wanted out and its ratings were terrible.Nikita wasnt renewed for a full fourth final season cause there are a few shows syndicated with less than 88(maybe Nikita will be another one but as yet it has no syndication deal)& I think Craig S working on Turn pilot and missing a pitch for Nikita S4& and maybe Maggies filming schedule for Divergent(i think thatsthe movies name) could have also been a factor and ratings wise Nikita didnt deserve a full season(same could be said about GG &90210) even with the “fri factor” & syndication factor.I also think Nikita doing as badly as the quickly cancelled Cult,Emily Owens MD & the suprise renwal Carrie Diaries mightve also played a part in Nikita getting only six episodes final season.HOD could very well get a full fourth season depending on how it does in spring in relation to BaTB,CD,Star_Crossed,Reign,The Originals,The Tommorrow People,The 100,Famous in 12 .HoD has better than a30% of renwal since CW wont and cant afford to walk away from possible syndication revenue.

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