FOX: 'Dads' & 'The Mindy Project' Are Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 1st, 2013

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-29, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The Mindy Project :cry: :cry: 0.74
Dads :cry: :cry: 0.80
Glee already renewed 0.87
Bones :) :) :) :) 0.91
American Dad final season 0.91
Brooklyn Nine-Nine :) :) :) :) 0.96
Bob's Burgers already renewed 0.96
New Girl :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Family Guy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.13
The Simpsons :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.26
Sleepy Hollow :) :) :) :) renewed 10/3 1.43

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10/3 Update: Sleepy Hollow has been renewed for a second season.
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Dads and The Mindy Project both stumbled badly out of the gate, and both are likely to be canceled by the end of the season. While the bear doesn't predict the timing of any moves, it's worth noting that second season shows are typically allowed to air their entire season of ordered episodes, regardless of their eventual fate at the end of the season.

This season will be American Dad's final season on Fox (it will continue on TBS), and Glee has already been renewed for the 2014-15 season.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • B

    The Simpsons was already renewed for two more seasons, wasn’t it?

  • joe kabyemela

    it was renewed up to season 25

  • CBSviewer

    The Simpsons will never end ! :)

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “The Simpsons was already renewed for two more seasons, wasn’t it?”

    That’s definitely the kind of thing I forget at the beginning of a season. I am checking now.

    Update: It has not been officially renewed for next season, but there are folks who tell me that it already has enough episodes ordered to air through 2014-15 now.

  • JacobYates

    @Bill
    Why isn’t Sleepy Hollow a certain renewal?

  • Tommy M.

    @ JacobYates, Bill didn’t list any new Dramas as certain renewal for any network probably because we don’t know where the ratings will level out yet.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Why isn’t Sleepy Hollow a certain renewal?”

    I wait a few weeks for new shows before going to a 5.

    And I know now why Robert reduced Bubble Watch to 3 categories.

  • Jeff (Canada)

    @JacobYates

    Because it’s a brand new show and there’s only been 2 episodes. Usually if it’s 2 low-rated episodes (like Dads) it doesn’t bode well, but 2 high-rated episodes (like for Sleepy Hollow) doesn’t necessarily mean instant success. It’ll take a few more episodes to get a definite idea of where it’s going ratings-wise.

  • omabin

    My predictions:

    New Girl: Certain Renewal
    Brooklyn Nine-Nine: Bubble
    Dads: Likely Cancellation
    The Mindy Project: Likely Cancellation

    Sleepy Hollow: Certain Renewal
    Bones: Certain Renewal
    Glee: Already Renewed

  • JacobYates

    @Bill
    Thanks for the clarification.

  • Rebecca

    I’m still rooting for Mindy – hers was the funniest new show I watched last season, and I’m enjoying her new season thus far. Dads is okay but I won’t miss it if it gets canned. I’m enjoying Sleepy Hollow, NG, B99 and Bob’s Burgers. I hope they bring RH back early.

  • gerry

    oh MINDY!

    i’m pulling for her as well, but her numbers don’t have her odds looking so hot…

  • HV

    My predictions:
    Note: I only move shows to very likely cancelation/renewal if they have aired at least TWO episodes this season. If a show was canceled or renewed before the season started, then it will show up as being in the middle for the whole season.

    VERY LIKELY CANCELATION

    LIKELY CANCELATION
    Dads
    The Mindy Project

    IN THE MIDDLE
    American Dad!–CANCELED
    Bob’s Burgers–RENEWED
    Glee–RENEWED
    Brooklyn Nine-Nine

    LIKELY RENEWAL
    Bones
    The Simpsons
    Family Guy

    VERY LIKELY RENEWAL
    Sleepy Hollow
    New Girl

  • Scott M

    Bill,

    I thought you waited for the Sunday final numbers before you calculated the index? Are you just correcting the rating later?

    I realize that nobody else cares about this, just curious.

  • Fake Me Out

    I’ll go out on a limb and say Glee has next season scaled way back or outright canceled. Given the sad boost by a death and Emmy memorial spotlight it still has really bad numbers and likely is going to sink even further. Only thing that will save it is if there is a syndication deal sweet enough to offset current loses with short term profits.

    ymmv

  • One

    I’m hopeful that Brooklyn 9-9 number holds up going forward, otherwise I’ll be forced to unleash the can of insanity on the Fox list that I unleashed upon the ABC list last year after the American public proved beyond a shadow of a doubt their inability (or, more frighteningly, simple unwillingness) to properly process the true awesomeness of programming such as Last Resort.

  • THE OLD MAN

    No arguments here

  • Bruno.

    Bill,

    Could this affect Raising Hope somehow?

  • Ray

    Noo not TMP! It’s the funniest comedy currently on the air!

  • Joseph

    The Cancellation Bear may strike at CBS first.

    There are reports that at Television City, they are already having Cancellation Bear drills in a futile attempt to prevent him from whacking “Mom”.

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