NBC: 'Revolution,' 'Parks & Recreation' & 'Parenthood' Started Down, But They're Not Out Yet

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

October 1st, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


bears waiting

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-29, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Parks & Recreation :| :| :| 0.57
Parenthood :| :| :| 0.70
Revolution :| :| :| 0.78
The Michael J. Fox Show :) :) :) :) 0.96
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
The Blacklist :) :) :) :) 1.65
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

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In what is the biggest early disagreement with the mostly in-sync Bubble Watch, the Cancellation Bear isn't ready to predict either Parenthood or Revolution land in his jaws this season. Yet.

The bear thinks that all the good news for NBC's new shows may already be out, and until he sees the news (which could be very bad) for the rest of NBC's new shows he doesn't have enough data to go with a negative prediction on those two. Expect lots of changes to the predictions in this list as NBC premieres more new shows in the coming weeks.

Even though it has yet to air this season, the NBC syndication gods will demand that Grimm is renewed at the end of the 2013-14 season.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Jazz

    Has NBC only aired 2 comedies so far?

  • Mitchell

    @Jazz

    Yep. Sean Saves the World and Welcome to the Family start next week, and that’s it until midseason (unless some newbie gets pulled).

  • Wright

    Revolution will rebound. This year looks to be really good.

  • Jonay Moon

    XD Nice bear picture!!

  • skyfi

    Revolution does not need to rebound. It has great ratings vs its spring ratings, so it is certain or at least likely renewal now.

  • Jeff (Canada)

    I’m fairly sure that Parks will be fine, since I’m getting all of NBC’s new comedies (minus MJF) will bomb. Community will take the place of one of the other 2 Thursday comedies that bombs.

  • omabin

    I am so appreciative of how more grounded the renewal cancellation index is.

    The Blacklist: Certain Renewal
    Chicago Fire: Certain Renewal
    Law and Order: SVU: Certain Renewal
    Parenthood: Bubble
    Revolution: Bubble

    The Michael J. Fox Show: Likely Renewal
    Parks and Recreation: Bubble

  • Matthew

    Why does the blacklist not have a bunch of happy green faces if the index is 1.65? the highest one by far.

  • Rebecca

    Can’t wait for Grimm to return. I still watch RVN but find it a little boring/tedious sometimes. I’ll try Sean Saves the World and About A Boy when they air. Maybe Dracula. I have a note to myself to try Growing Up Fisher if that still comes on in mid-season. And Undateable if it still exists. Otherwise, the only other NBC show I still watch and love is P&R. I watched the first two MJF episodes and decided not to keep watching.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Why does the blacklist not have a bunch of happy green faces if the index is 1.65? the highest one by far.”

    I don’t go to the 5 for new shows until a few weeks have passed.

  • gerry

    very realistic placement thus far i’d say.

  • HV

    Parks & Recreation is not a toss up. It is up against TBBT, which NBC actually understands hurts ratings, and NBC loves Amy Pohler. Why do you think that 30 Rock lasted for so long? NBC loves Tina Fey!

  • Mitchell

    @HV

    NBC ‘loves’ every actor on every one of their shows, until the show is cancelled.

  • Tommy M.

    @ HV
    Why do you think that 30 Rock lasted for so long? NBC loves Tina Fey!

    30 Rock was NBC’s 2nd highest rated comedy. That’s why NBC kept it so long!

  • HV

    @Tommy M.
    Really? Was it? Hm. I didn’t really start looking at ratings until recently, but I’ve heard that 30 Rock suffered from low ratings its entire run.

    But anyway, the reason I listed the actor thing second is because it’s not as strong of a point as the fact that P&R is up against TBBT.

  • Tommy M.

    @ HV, Networks renew and cancel scripted shows based off how those shows perform relative to the rest of the scripted shows on the same network. NBC seems to grade comedies differently than dramas, but that has more to do with their comedies doing really badly compared to their dramas.

  • CoryB

    I really think that out of respect Parenthood will be given advanced notice on their final season. With 22 episodes planned for this year and it hitting their magic syndication point they could be planning for this to be its last. That said, if we cross the halfway mark and the “final season” marketting push has not started I expect it will get renewed for at least 13 in a final farewell season.

  • Greg

    If I were to bet, I’d say that both Parenthood and Parks and Recreation will get at least 13-episode final seasons. Actually, Parks is in similar situation to where 30 Rock was last year, both having failed miserably when they premiered at 8pm on their respective sixth seasons (and we all saw what happened to 30 Rock afterwards). I’m pretty sure that NBC will pair Community and Parks once again on midseason, and Parks will rate better at 8:30.

  • HV

    @Tommy M.
    You can think whatever you want, but I still believe that P&R is not a toss-up. There’s no way it’ll get canceled in May unless it drops hugely, which is not logical. It’s not a toss-up, it’s a likely renewal.

  • Tommy M.

    @ HV
    You can think whatever you want, but I still believe that P&R is not a toss-up. There’s no way it’ll get canceled in May unless it drops hugely, which is not logical. It’s not a toss-up, it’s a likely renewal.

    NBC still has 5 new comedies and Community that haven’t premiered yet. P&R has already hit syndication. Unless it can outperform at least half of them, if not more, than at best it’s a toss up right now.

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