NBC: 'Revolution,' 'Parks & Recreation' & 'Parenthood' Started Down, But They're Not Out Yet

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

October 1st, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


bears waiting

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-29, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Parks & Recreation :| :| :| 0.57
Parenthood :| :| :| 0.70
Revolution :| :| :| 0.78
The Michael J. Fox Show :) :) :) :) 0.96
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
The Blacklist :) :) :) :) 1.65
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

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In what is the biggest early disagreement with the mostly in-sync Bubble Watch, the Cancellation Bear isn't ready to predict either Parenthood or Revolution land in his jaws this season. Yet.

The bear thinks that all the good news for NBC's new shows may already be out, and until he sees the news (which could be very bad) for the rest of NBC's new shows he doesn't have enough data to go with a negative prediction on those two. Expect lots of changes to the predictions in this list as NBC premieres more new shows in the coming weeks.

Even though it has yet to air this season, the NBC syndication gods will demand that Grimm is renewed at the end of the 2013-14 season.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • HV

    Here are my predictions:
    Note: To be moved to very likely renewal/cancelation a show needs to have aired at least TWO episodes this season.

    VERY LIKELY CANCELATION

    LIKELY CANCELATION

    IN THE MIDDLE
    The Michael J. Fox Show
    Parenthood
    Revolution

    LIKELY RENEWAL
    The Blacklist
    Chicago Fire
    Law & Order: Special Victims Unit
    Parks and Recreation

    VERY LIKELY RENEWAL

  • THE OLD MAN

    I so agree with this post! (What’s going on?)

    Wait & see is the best strategy here, as NBC has made some smart moves this season & still has those 5 new & one returning comedy on deck + the return of Grimm (which I think is safe) & Dracula on 10/25

    So as I’m inclined to say: STAY TOONED…

  • Chris J

    I think Parks and Parenthood should end this year. Announcing these as “final” seasons will probably help ratings in the Spring as well. This sadly should be the last season for Community as well.

    Next year NBC needs to start over on Thursday. Every other day seems pretty set.

    I’m assuming for dramas Blacklist, Chicago Fire, Chicago PD, L&O:SVU, and Grimm are sure renewals. Everything else can and probably will be cancelled.

    It would be interesting if NBC only renews their “procedural” style dramas and only picks up procedurals next season. They’ll be looking a lot more like CBS.

    Now they only have to find comedies that work! It seems the general consensus is that SSTW and WTTF will crash immediately, and I agree with that. The Spring comedies will probably fill one or both of the gaps left by these failures. I’m hoping About A Boy doesn’t debut like 1600 Penn last year. That’s the only one that sounds interesting to me.

  • Chris J

    To add to my post as @Tommy M. said Parks is already in syndication. Likewise Community is in syndication as well.

    Parenthood will be hitting the magic syndication number after this season.

  • One

    Could Chicano Fire really be the little show that could? We shall see.

    Nice to see Blacklist at the top of the stack. May this be the worth timeslot occupant that neither Smash nor Revolution were before it.

  • TV God

    I hope Sean Saves The World does well, NBC owes Sean Hayes a lot! I think SSTW will be just fine, because cast alone is great, plus the great Jeff Burrows is directing the first couple of episodes including the pilot. I think it will do well.

  • cas127

    The paucity of shows on the CI show how increasingly marginalized original programming is becoming.

    Out of 21 possible prime time hours…

    …three go to evening football…
    …three go to the Voice…
    …and six go to the Friday and Saturday night burn offs…

  • POIFanatic

    If Revolution stays above 1.6, I predict renewal. P&R though is probably gonna be cancelled. Parenthood is firmly on the bubble with probable renewal in the end.

  • Dan14

    @HV

    I love P&R, but I doubt that P&R’s producers share your confidence. Which is why every season is written like it will be the last.

  • Stew

    @cas127

    The “paucity” of the shows on the Cancellation Index shows that we are only a few weeks into the Fall Season, with NBC having a lot of shows on deck for premieres.

    Saturday nights are usually for repeats, and Friday night has original scripted programming that hasn’t premiered yet (Grimm and Dracula).

    The Voice is by far NBC’s highest rated show, besides football on Sundays, so it makes sense for them to give six hours to those to programs.

  • CBSviewer

    NBC next season:

    MONDAY
    8:00 – The Voice
    10:00 – NEW DRAMA

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – The Biggest Loser
    9:00 – The Voice
    10:00 – Chicago Fire

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – Revolution
    9:00 – Law & Order: SVU
    10:00 – NEW DRAMA

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – Parks & Recreation (Final Season)
    8:30 – NEW COMEDY
    9:00 – The Michael J. Fox Show
    9:30 – NEW COMEDY
    10:00 – The Blacklist

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – Dateline
    9:00 – Grimm
    10:00 – NEW DRAMA

    Midseason:
    Hannibal
    Community
    Parenthood

  • HV

    @Dan14
    I don’t even watch the show, but its ratings will have to seriously tank for NBC to cancel it. If an episode gets beneath 1.0, I’ll change my mind. But, until then, I strongly believe that it will get renewed.

  • HV

    @CBSviewer
    I like your schedule, except I doubt that NBC would put The Blacklist in Thursday at 10:00. Maybe put SVU there? From my memory it repeated well there last year…

  • Hobbitual

    @CBSviewer

    So you think that Community and Hannibal are going to be renewed again for midseason? Not disagreeing, just making sure I understand your schedule.

  • Tommy M.

    I don’t mind posting fantasy schedules, but it’s sort of crazy to do so before the networks have had a chance to even premiere a good chunk of their new shows. It’s even crazier to expect that nothing that has premiered so far will get canceled, and everything that has yet to premiere (excluding 1 low rated returning comedy and drama)will be canceled!

  • Ultima

    @HV
    Really? Was it? Hm. I didn’t really start looking at ratings until recently, but I’ve heard that 30 Rock suffered from low ratings its entire run.

    30 Rock had a very bad start (the 4th episode had a 1.7 rating… in 2006), but recovered very quickly when it was moved from Wednesday to Thursday immediately after that and was a solid performer for NBC for five seasons.

  • StevenD

    Parks will go like 30 Rock, short final 7th season (wouldn’t mind it lasting longer though, favorite show)

    The Blacklist will reach a third season, and I say this because NBC will want the show to have a boost with Spader in the new Avengers movie, like Steve carrel and The Office (thinking ahead pretty far here)

    Everything else is either a definite return or bubble I’d guess

  • Ultima

    @cas127
    …and six go to the Friday and Saturday night burn offs…

    Where does this nonsense come from?

    All four major networks are still running original programming (much of it scripted) on Friday nights.

  • Ultima

    @StevenD
    Parks will go like 30 Rock, short final 7th season

    30 Rock’s sixth season averaged a 1.5, while NBC’s scripted average that year was ~1.6. I don’t think Parks & Rec is going to be that close to the network’s average this year.

  • HV

    @StevenD
    I doubt that The Blacklist will reach season 3. It’s not doing as well as Revolution last year in demo or retention from The Voice, it’ll flop without The Voice behind it.

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