NBC: 'Revolution,' 'Parks & Recreation' & 'Parenthood' Started Down, But They're Not Out Yet

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

October 1st, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


bears waiting

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-29, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Parks & Recreation :| :| :| 0.57
Parenthood :| :| :| 0.70
Revolution :| :| :| 0.78
The Michael J. Fox Show :) :) :) :) 0.96
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
The Blacklist :) :) :) :) 1.65
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

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In what is the biggest early disagreement with the mostly in-sync Bubble Watch, the Cancellation Bear isn't ready to predict either Parenthood or Revolution land in his jaws this season. Yet.

The bear thinks that all the good news for NBC's new shows may already be out, and until he sees the news (which could be very bad) for the rest of NBC's new shows he doesn't have enough data to go with a negative prediction on those two. Expect lots of changes to the predictions in this list as NBC premieres more new shows in the coming weeks.

Even though it has yet to air this season, the NBC syndication gods will demand that Grimm is renewed at the end of the 2013-14 season.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • StevenD

    @Ultima I can only hope:)

    @HV A procedural is more likely (but not automatically) not to fall like smash and revolution. Since The Blacklist would have a more valuable syndication future I wouldn’t be shocked if NBC gave it a better second season time slot. And to suggest it won’t get a second season would say a lot compared to the past, but you never know I guess.

  • CBSviewer

    @ Habbitual

    Yes I think both Shows will be Renewed. Hannibal is really cheap for NBC and Community needs a sixth season to reach 100 episodes.

  • Carmen

    @ StevenD
    Since The Blacklist would have a more valuable syndication future I wouldn’t be shocked if NBC gave it a better second season time slot..

    I suppose you may be trying to say “that as a procedural, (and once established) that a show like Blacklist would be able to stand on its own better than serialized shows like Smash and / or Revolution?”

    Ok, that maay be. But to say that NBC can possibly put (Blacklist) in a more favorable spot than after the Voice is nonsense.

  • HV

    @CBSviewer
    I doubt that the 100 episode landmark will make Community get renewed. If that were the case, NBC would simply add 3 episodes to season 5 to reach 100.

  • Ultima

    @HV
    It’s not doing as well as Revolution last year in demo or retention from The Voice, it’ll flop without The Voice behind it.

    I think the more relevant metric is retention from premiere; The Blacklist (3.6 from 3.8, -5%) did much better than Revolution (3.4 from 4.1, -17%).

  • lostboy

    Blacklist is going up against Hostages and Castle.
    Revolutiom premiered a week before Castle and H50 last year 2 established shows not an accurate comparison. Revolution got a 3.4 with tougher competition on 9/24/2012.

  • Oliver

    I wouldn’t write off a Community renewal. Sony is known to be extremely aggressive at getting shows renewed and it has a $850k/episode syndication deal.

    I mean, if they can get Unforgettable renewed then I don’t see why they couldn’t get Community renewed again…

  • Ultima

    @HV

    Ignore my previous comment about retention for The Blacklist, it no longer applies based on the final ratings (it’s now down 13% from the premiere).

  • StevenD

    @Carmen

    My thinking would be The Blacklist being sandwiched between The Voice and Chicago Fire on Tuesdays being a comfortable spot, still having The Voice help

  • Dan

    NBC is the one network where I can;t be sure of a lot of shows returning.

    Grimm is the only drama certain to return but SVU and Chicago Fire are good bets. Too soon to tell for Revolution though if it stablizes at 1.8-2.0 it will be considered successful. Same with Parenthood, its numbers could be better but if it improves on Rock Center or Hannibal then NBC will like that.

    This may be the final season for Parks & Recreation, however NBC owns the show so my guess is like 30 Rock a short final 13 episode season wouldn’t be out of the question.

    Many were disappointed by how Michael J FOX Show did in its premiere but if it stablizes at a 2.0 thats considered good to NBC.

    Remember for NBC, its not about a show being a hit, its about an improvement in the slot over last season. Whatever shows improve in their slots from last season NBC will probably renew.

  • HV

    My predictions for Fall 2014 for NBC:

    SUNDAY
    7:00 Sunday Night Football/The Apprentice
    9:00 (Sunday Night Football)/NEW-The Odyssey
    10:00 (Sunday Night Football)/NEW-Katherine Heigl project

    MONDAY
    8:00 The Voice
    10:00 NEW-Paradise

    TUESDAY
    8:00 The Biggest Loser/The Voice
    9:00 The Voice/NEW-Bitch Off the Ol’ Block
    9:30 (The Voice)/NEW-A to Z
    10:00 NEW-Outbreak

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 The Blacklist
    9:00 NEW-The Conspiracy
    10:00 Crisis

    THURSDAY
    8:00 Parks and Recreation
    8:30 NEW-Justin Spitzer project
    9:00 The Michael J. Fox Show
    9:30 NEW-Marry Me
    10:00 Law & Order: Special Victims Unit

    FRIDAY
    8:00 Dateline NBC
    9:00 Grimm
    10:00 Believe

    Midseason:
    2 new comedies: Flynn McGarry project, Former Fat Girl
    Parenthood
    3 new dramas including Cleopatra, Conception

  • Doug

    If Revolution stays where it is, I can’t help but to think it’ll get renewed. I really didn’t expect more than mid 1s in that timeslot, so I think a 1.8 there is a win for NBC.

  • Dan

    @Ultima – It all depends on how NBC’s shows do this season. If Only Michel J FOX does well and Sean Saves the World and Welcome to the Family Flop then Parks & Rec could get a final season. NBC owns the show so its doesn’t matter the series average this season unless it really tanks. NBC does give final seasons to shows if they can or its not too late to announce this as Park’s final season. I think given how The Office and 30 Rock turned out in recent years, NBC is more likely to give Parks a short final season.

  • Chris J

    @HV

    I don’t think NBC’s fall schedule is going to look like that.

    It’s probably too soon to say but I’m assuming their gonna try something different on Thursdays, considering their best shot comedy MJFS couldn’t break past CBS’s dominance.

    NBC should just schedule reality on the night or something and move their comedy bloc elsewhere.

  • Tommy M.

    @ Dan, Both The Office and 30 Rock saw some of their lowest ratings during their final seasons. What incentive does NBC have to use them as a model? I’m not saying they won’t give P&R a final season, but if they do, the fact that they did it with The Office and 30 Rock won’t have anything to do with it.

  • Chris J

    @Dan

    Even if NBC cancels everything but the Michael J Fox Show after this season, I don’t think that alone promises Parks and Rec another season.

    Parks already does not fit in with NBC’s new family style comedies and unless NBC decides to move back toward more workplace comedies I don’t see Parks hanging around as the odd show out for another season. Same goes for Community.

    Those shows and that era of NBC is over.

  • Patrick G

    With the HUGE disappointment that “Revolution” has turned the power back off rather than go with the more surprising plot twist of leaving it on and bringing the US Government into the plot, I believe this show is doomed, especially away from its “Voice” lead-in last year. It will continue to sink in the ratings and be gone by next year.

  • Justin121

    The NBC scene will change A LOT once Ironside, Welcome to the Family, and Sean Saves the World premiere.

    Those 3 will be ‘Likely Cancelations’ at the bottom and push the other 3 to the middle of the index to still maintain their ‘Bubble’status.

  • Dan

    @Tommy M – Well every single comedy on NBC dropped in ratings season to season. The Office, 30 Rock, Community, Parks & Rec, Whitney, Up All Night all of those shows lost viewers in 2012-2013 compared to 2011-2012. NBC wouldn’t renew the show because they expect it to go up in ratings, they renew it because they have nothing else and it can keep the block going. Thats why all those shows (Save for Office & Parks) only had an initial 13 episode order. Also it helps syndication since NBC fully owns Parks & Rec. I’m not saying Parks & Rec can’t be cancelled this season, I’m just saying that if all of NBC’s comedies flop, they may consider keeping Parks for a short final year. Thats the main reason Community was kept for 13 episodes and it may get a 6th 13 episode season to get the show over 100 if ratings are OK. Had Go On or The New Normal held up in the second half of their seasons, then Community would have been dead. Even if Whitney or Guys With Kids held a 1.5-2.0 that would have sealed Community’s fate. Its all about relativity and if SSTW and WTTF both flop along with NBC’s midseason shows flopping, NBC could keep Parks for a short final year.

    @Chris J – I agree that Parks doesn’t fit in with the night but a lot of times networks have blocks that one show doesn’t fit. CBS has We Are Men, FOX has Dads, ABC has Super Fun Night, and NBC has Parks (But its still a good show to start). The point is that competing with The Big Bang Theory and The X Factor is hard to do. 30 Rock couldn’t do it, and Community couldn’t do it and yet both shows pull similar numbers that Parks pulled last week.

    If NBC doesn’t announce a final season for Parks by March, then I expect them to possibly renew the series for a short final season. They usually give final seasons to veterans (The Office, 30 Rock, Chuck) Same goes for Community should it stabilize in Season 5. It may get that 6 seasons and a movie after all.

    @Justin121 – While I expect all 3 of those shows to possibly be cancelled, I doubt NBC will pull any of them. Ironside could last the full season if it edges out Nashville and holds up against CSI and with NBC down 50% in comedies this fall (4 this year compared to 8 last year) I do think Sean Saves the World and Welcome to the Family will be kept until December and run out their episode orders. I don’t think we will be seeing Community until January or February.

    If Sean Saves the World flops then I expect NBC to move The Michael J Fox show to 9:00 by Midseason, Welcome to the Family (which may be this seasons New Normal) to 9:30 and air Community at 8:30 and Parks at 8. Or they could flip flop the two.

    Midseason
    8:00 Parks & Rec
    8:30 Community
    9:00 The Michael J FOX Show
    9:30 Welcome to the Family

    If Welcome to the Family gets no more episodes, I could see NBC maybe pairing it an Undateable on another night like Tuesdays at 9 and airing a new comedy Growing Up Fisher or About a Boy on Thursdays post MJF

    Thursday
    8:00 Parks & Rec
    8:30 Community
    9:00 The Michael J FOX Show
    9:30 Growing Up Fisher / About a Boy

    Tuesday
    8:00 The Voice
    9:00 Sean Saves the World
    9:30 Undateable
    10:00 Chicago Fire

    Although my money is on Welcome to the Family succeeding over Sean Saves the World, I could see Sean getting additional episodes and be paired with Undateable somewhere else while Welcome to the Family moves to 9:30 and MJF moves back to 9. I think NBC’s schedule would improve if MJF moved to 9 in general.

  • Chris J

    @Dan

    I like that mock schedule pairing the 2 multicams after the VOICE and moving MJF to 9pm Thursday. It looks like an improvement over the current schedule.

    But I have a feeling by midseason only MJF will survive. Growing Up Fisher and About A Boy may both end up on Thursday.

    I have a feeling we may see Chicago PD premiering on Tuesday after the VOICE this Spring.

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