NBC: 'Revolution,' 'Parks & Recreation' & 'Parenthood' Started Down, But They're Not Out Yet

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

October 1st, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


bears waiting

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-29, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Parks & Recreation :| :| :| 0.57
Parenthood :| :| :| 0.70
Revolution :| :| :| 0.78
The Michael J. Fox Show :) :) :) :) 0.96
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
The Blacklist :) :) :) :) 1.65
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

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In what is the biggest early disagreement with the mostly in-sync Bubble Watch, the Cancellation Bear isn't ready to predict either Parenthood or Revolution land in his jaws this season. Yet.

The bear thinks that all the good news for NBC's new shows may already be out, and until he sees the news (which could be very bad) for the rest of NBC's new shows he doesn't have enough data to go with a negative prediction on those two. Expect lots of changes to the predictions in this list as NBC premieres more new shows in the coming weeks.

Even though it has yet to air this season, the NBC syndication gods will demand that Grimm is renewed at the end of the 2013-14 season.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • omabin

    @Ultima,

    Even if the original ratings did hold, it wouldn’t be a fair comparison because Revolution premiered in a week without competition so its drop should have been expected to be higher IMO.

  • POIFanatic

    @Patrick G:
    After the news that Revolution would turn the power on in the finale got out midseason, you were whining about how horrible that is… Of course, now that they cut the power off in a sensible fashion and now that its getting critical praise, you decide to whine more.

  • Prup (aka Jim Benton)

    Agreed on holding off on new shows, at least if they start big. First episode ratings are ALWAYS products of curiosity, caused by the promo campaign, the stars, the concept, the show runner, or the early reviews. (I think some shows get a slight first episode bump even from bad reviews. I was tempted to tune into BETRAYAL simply because everybody was saying ‘you never knew how bad tv could be until this came on.’)

    A bad start — like with HOSTAGES and you know the show is almost certainly doomed — since the only thing that can cause an up-tick after the initial ratings is ‘water-cooler buzz’ and that just doesn’t happen often.

    Second episode ratings will almost always drop substantially, because some of the curious are disappointed. The question is how big the drop-off is. A really big one, and you can start planning the show’s replacement.

    But the key is the 3rd episode. If the drop levels off, breathe easily, but if there is a drop as big as for the first episode, the bear can start salivating. (Thus, if BLACKLIST stays above 3.0, I think you are safe in ‘going green.’ And — get the smelling salts — NBC has a bonafide dramatic hit. So next week should be the key, but I’ll bet on at least a ‘little slam’ in Spade(r)s.)

  • Chris_SAdvisor

    POIFanatic – He might not have been verbose enough. Kripke said the premise of the (whole) show was an “*epic journey* discover what happened to the electricity and turn it back on”. That took a seriously non-epic 10 episodes. It traded the massive plot hole that the nanites comprise, for the massive plot hole that world-wide power grids would be functional after 15 years of neglect, storms, and cannibalization. No realistic person wanted the nanites back on, they just wanted the power grids to go down after a few seconds, and slowly be rebuilt as the revolution started. But instead, we got at least four more plot holes in the season 2 premier, and the nanites were tritely turned back on, invalidating everything that happened in season 1. Nora’s sacrifice alone was completely meaningless, yet all the characters do is whine about the nukes. That is the kind of writing that has driven most people away.

    It will drop to 1.6 tonight, continuing it’s downward spiral as the show gets more silly, and the nanites get more magical. Aaron and Rachel are now immortal, there are even fewer guns than the start of season one (for no reason), and the writing is not improving at all. Sure there was a sex scene with Tracy, but T&A is not going to save this show. Only good writing could, and they seem to be incapable of that.

  • awesome-49

    I watched revolution last year but I stopped after this premiere. Now the only shows I watch on NBC are Grimm and Community and I would be fine if community ended this year as long as it ends well.

  • Lostboy

    Not sure why tvbythenumber did not post this yet Go Revolution.
    They have posted BooBloods &H50.

    Seems tvbythenumber post only what they want us to see.
    In total viewers, “Revolution’s” 6.8 million average is up from the season-one finale by 10 percent (6.8 million vs. 6.2 million). This is the top “Revolution” in total viewers since March 25, beating each of the show’s nine previous episodes. So Revolution is still highly dvr.
    So Revolution grew almost 2 million in viewers.
    In L+3 results, “Revolution” grew by 41 percent in 18-49 versus its L+SD rating, to a 2.56 from a 1.82.
    REVOLUTION bias.

  • Chris_SAdvisor

    Nice spam post Lostboy (cut and paste from other thread(s)). Too bad this bt#s is not a betting site, or else I would happily take all your money.

    Rev is going to drop to 1.6 tonight, and continue to lose viewers especially when Arrow starts up next week. If the premier was the best they could manage with Kripke doing the writing himself, this show has no future. I hoped it would not be that way, but it is written by people with grade 6 knowledge of science, but styles itself as a plausible SciFi show. They should have put Rockne in charge and Kripke should have had the grace to step aside. Too late now with half the seasons in the bag.

  • Elizabeth

    I am actually more optimistic for tomorrow’s episode of Parks than I was for the season premiere. Yes it is still up against TBBT but it isn’t the premiere episode. I think Parks should stay steady this week with a 1.3 or even a bit higher because people will be less insistent on watching TBBT live

  • Dorothy5334

    I noticed the copy and paste too… Yes revolution went wayyyy down in the writing dept. hopefully it can be fixed real quick before it gets cancelled.

  • Dan

    Revolution like Parenthood and Chicago Fire are up in their slots Vs. last year.

    Revolution is doing as good or better than Animal Practice and Guys With Kids in the slot which this time last year scored a 1.4 and 1.6 respectively in the slot. (Sept 26, 2012)

    Parenthood’s 1.6 is better than Rock Center’s 0.8 (Sept 27, 2012)

    Chicago Fire’s 2.6 is much better than Parenthood’s 1.8 (Sept 25, 2012)

    SVU’s 2.7 is much better than its 2.1 in the slot last year.(September 26,2012)

    The numbers may be down, but compared to last year, in the slots, the numbers are much better. I wouldn’t say Revolution and Parenthood are in danger if they improved on the slot from last year and SVU and Chicago Fire are doing much better then they did last year.

  • Chris_SAdvisor

    Dan, I doubt either of those shows cost what the average episode of Revolution costs. So I would shave a point or two off in that comparison for Rev’s numbers. Of course, it is still not enough, as NBC apparently does not have anything else in the stable. As long as Rev. can hold a 1.5 I think NBC will keep it around. After tonight we will see if it hits the 1.6 I am expecting. That will mean that if tonight’s episode is great, the show will have a future. If it is like the premier, it will hit 1.5 next week (possibly lower if there is too much nanite magic tonight).

    Dorothy5334 – I hear you. I really thought with the addition of Rockne and the co-creator of Supernatural (cannot remember his name right now), that it would turn around. I mean, with that much talent, it really takes a lot of work to not succeed. I will still hold out hope until episode three, as they will have demonstrated their best by then. But right now, it looks like everyone is an Executive Producer, giving their money, not ideas.

  • POIFanatic

    @chis_sadvisor:
    Its alright if you don’t understand the meaning of ‘science-fiction’. Lots f people don’t. The whole point of season 2 was to refresh and give the show a solid direction and they did it by progressing the character development in tune with what happened in season 1. Even all the critics and most of the viewers (haters and fans) agree that the premiere was a fantastic episode in the right direction. If you still don’t like it, don’t know why you’re watching it. It just shows how much of a attention wh*re you are.

  • POIFanatic

    Just finished watching the second episode and reading the multitude of reviews. Everybody are praising the show even more and I’m pretty happy about it. Hope the ratings don’t go below a 1.7.

    Oh, btw you may spout out nonsense like saying Lostboy is spamming, but i checked and he is saying the truth.

  • Dan

    @ChrisAdvisor – While that’s true about cost (Obviously Revolution costs more), I meant short term, Revolution will be seen as doing OK if it stays above 1.7. But if it goes below 1.5 its as good as done by May. The fact is, while my expectations were to be a 2.0 At least for the show, NBC is at least OK that the show didn’t flop out of the gate because SVU certainly could have and so could Ironside.

    My guess is that Revolution will keep going down. It might lose more viewers after Arrow premieres but honestly besides that, there are no other dramas airing at 8. Its competition is X Factor / Survivor / and Middle/Back in the Game, so there’s no excuse for Revolution to rise.

  • Anna g

    Revolution is dead after second week’s ratings – it hit only 1.5 and below 6 milion viewers.

  • Chris J

    So after last nights ratings it’s looking like:

    Revolution DEAD

    Ironside DEAD

    If Parenthood drops tonight expect the next half season after the Olympics to be advertised as it’s “last season.”

    Also with Wednesday ratings so low I’m expecting Thursday is going to look like a blood bath with the mediocre ZERO buzz comedies NBC is debuting.

    Community and Parks may have another shot at this rate although I would hope NBC would can everything and start completely over with comedies.

  • DenverDean

    As I said last week, SVU’s rating was a one-time thing – it was the ultimate “special episode.” Never going to see Olivia kidnapped or whatever again. SVU has benefited from the stronger lead-in. Remember how anemic the comedies were last year and at least it’s drama into drama. SVU will be OK as long as Mariska wants to do it.

  • omabin

    Revolution is not doing “pull me” numbers for NBC, you guys are exaggerating. It will likely beat Ironside, Parenthood and at least the first hour of Thursday comedies regularly. I don’t expect SVU or the second hour of Thursday comedies to settle at much higher levels.

    Revolution currently is at 75% of NBC’s scripted average, 2.18. That is not pull me territoriy and is not cancel me for sure territority either – it’s pure bubble. In addition, Revolution number may still fall a bit, but NBC’s average is sure to follow way more than it will, considering the huge premiere numbers of the blacklist and svu will be dissipated, and considering the comedy numbers and ironside numbers that will soon be part of its calculation. By other words, it should easily get to something like 80% of its scripted average and it may happen as soon as today when last night’s ratings are released.

  • Mumbo

    Revolution shares one similarity with Parks and Rec, Community, and Parenthood – it’s veeeery lucky to be on NBC because with those numbers it would be cancelled on any other network.

    But seriously, take a look around at NBC’s slate. Suddenly a 1.8 and 1.6 don’t look so bad.

  • Ultima

    @omabin
    Even if the original ratings did hold, it wouldn’t be a fair comparison because Revolution premiered in a week without competition so its drop should have been expected to be higher IMO.

    Fair enough.

    Revolution is not doing “pull me” numbers for NBC, you guys are exaggerating.

    This.

    NBC went an atrocious zero for three with their second week premieres. That’s good news for fans of veteran shows, because it means that there will be plenty of free space available on the schedule for midseason replacements.

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