ABC: 'Once Upon A Time In Wonderland' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 15th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 13, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Lucky 7* canceled 0.44
The Neighbors (F) :oops: 0.47
Betrayal :oops: 0.52
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.60
Trophy Wife :oops: 0.78
Once Upon A Time In Wonderland :cry: :cry: 0.78
Nashville :| :| :| 0.84
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.88
Back In The Game :| :| :| 0.90
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.96
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.06
The Goldbergs :) :) :) :) 1.09
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
Super Fun Night :) :) :) :) 1.30
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.41
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.53
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.66
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.87

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Once Upon A Time In Wonderland premiered to a 1.7 adults 18-49 rating on Thursday at 8pm, 23% below the premiere of also canceled Last Resort last season, tapping it as certain to be canceled. The Cancellation Bear will dine on Alice and friends by the end of the season, maybe sooner.

Back In The Game was moved down to "toss up". Trophy Wife and The Neighbors are now both certain to be canceled. These changes will likely make their way to the post headlines over the next few weeks.

Is the bear feeling nervous about his pre-season call that the ABC syndication gods will demand that  Revenge be renewed for a fourth season? Just a bit. Will the syndication gods have the mojo to save the show if its ratings keep sinking? Stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Marc

    OUAT in Wonderland had steep competition from BBT and XFactor. I think that ABC needs to compare it’s numbers to Park’s and Recreation and determine if it’s worth trying something new.

    I wish at one point networks would stop trying to fill their death slots with new shows looking for a hit. Focus on relative ratings.

    Is a 1.7 in that slot GOOD, yes, KEEP IT. Just because a different show gets a 1.9 in a different time slot does not mean it is more succesful (to the portfolio)

  • AdamP

    ABC’s best two comedies on the air are The Neighbors and Trophy Wife, and they’re most likely to be cancelled. Also a shame that Super Fun Night is somehow getting good ratings, I would have had that on Fridays and kept the Neighbors on a Tuesday.

    Super Fun Night just doesn’t fit in with ALL of ABC’s other comedies (Modern Family, The Middle, The Neighbors, Last Man Standing, Trophy Wife, The Goldbergs, Back in the Game) as they are family-oriented comedies.
    I think ABC would have done better with Mixology in the fall (isn’t it debuting midseason after Modern Family anyway).

    I would actually say, from most to least likely of being cancelled, the comedies rank:

    1) Trophy Wife – 95%
    2) Back in the Game – 70%
    3) The Neighbors – 68%
    4) Super Fun Night (if it keeps dropping) – 55%
    5) Last Man Standing – 30%
    6) The Goldbergs – 5%
    7) The Middle – 0%
    8) Modern Family – 0%

  • Shepherd

    Wow, no mention of Nashville. I suppose I had no reason to believe that you’d make a call on that one yet, but still.

    Is the bear feeling nervous about his pre-season call that the ABC syndication gods will demand that Revenge be renewed for a fourth season? Just a bit. Will the syndication gods have the mojo to save the show if its ratings keep sinking? Stay tuned.

    I was a little skeptical of that call at the beginning of the season, but then it premiered ok. After Sunday’s ratings however, I’m a little worried again. Looks like it’s a race between Nashville and Revenge this season.

    They need to have one of their spring dramas do swimmingly so that they can cancel both shows.

  • Bright

    Nothing on Nashville, again.

  • Mumbo

    Wonderland will air out its episodes, I’m fairly confident of that. But it will be cancelled. It will get a proper ending, though. The one season is supposed to be a complete story, and if the show was renewed, they would have done a completely different story for the next season, just with most of the same cast. That’s definitely for the best for a show originally conceived as a limited-run series. I don’t want another Under the Dome situation.

    I don’t think the syndication gods will save Revenge. It’s already fallen so far and it’s only a few episodes in, so I cringe to imagine how godawful the spring ratings will be. And a show that serialized can’t have much syndication value.

    Nashville also has sophomore failure written all over it, but time will tell I guess.

  • jupiter3765

    does back in the game have a shot

  • Stephen

    Wonderland, Nashville, and Back in Game likely not getting another season.

    Goldbergs and Super Fun Night both I think will get back orders of some kind and one could be face saving comedy renewal for 2nd season so ABC doesn’t end up cancelling all 4 new fall sitcoms. Super Fun Night has edge but probably hasn’t settled yet so will see.

    Revenge I feel is still safe for season 4 partly from syndication but also it’s ratings aren’t super terrible and ABC has other problems to deal with. Only wrinkle with Revenge is with ratings dropping and the type of show it is how strong of a syndication deal could it get?

  • Shepherd

    @Russ

    I think it’s too early to call on Wonderland.

    Not at all. That show was DOA. Way better than OUAT in my opinion, but still deader than a door nail.

  • queeneeuq

    @AdamP

    All of ABCs new and newish are all trying to push each other off the cliff. I agree with what you said exfept The Goldbergs show be higher.

  • Kelly

    Time to put Betrayal to rest.

  • OriginalProduct

    I hope that OUAT in wonderland continues until the end of this season. They would not leave poor Cyrus lost would they!!!???? Come on everybody, “Alice needs our help” let’s get busy and tell our friends to watch the show. I really like it and want to see what happens next!!

  • Shepherd

    @SJ

    I don’t think the bear needs to be nervous about his Revenge prediction. Yes, its ratings are low, but, as a veteran show, there is a limit to how far it will fall. It would be difficult to imagine Revenge – or any veteran show, for that matter – dropping to Lucky 7/Betrayal levels. Not to mention that with SHIELD’s ratings plummeting week after week, Revenge could very well be ABC’s fourth or fifth highest rated drama of the season

    What is this limit you speak of? I guess I just have a better imagination than you, because I see Revenge around 1.0-1.2 for the fall finale, and averaging below 1.0 in the Spring. Revenge will not be the 4th or 5th highest rated drama imo.

  • jupiter3765

    i think nashville does really have a shot

  • Elena

    Quick question:

    Why is Revenge listed as Certain Renewal on this chart yet the Cancellation Bear tweeted this today: “REVENGE ratings adjusted down, the syndication gods are going to have to use all their mojo to keep the bear away.”?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Quick question:

    Why is Revenge listed as Certain Renewal on this chart yet the Cancellation Bear tweeted this today: “REVENGE ratings adjusted down, the syndication gods are going to have to use all their mojo to keep the bear away.”?”

    Because with Revenge ratings continuing to slide it’s only got syndication mojo to save it now, and it’ll need a lot of it.

    The bear predicted early it would get that mojo, but now, he’s feeling a bit shaky.

  • Shepherd

    @Mumbo

    Wonderland will air out its episodes, I’m fairly confident of that

    The only problem is that ABC will only say that they’ve ordered somewhere between 14-21 episodes. We’ll probably never know if they air all of the ordered episodes if it goes past 13. Of course, we will know for certain that they didn’t air them if it lasts 13 or less.

  • r0ckmypants

    @BenA – “The Neighbors WILL NOT be back for Season 2!!!”

    It already is back for season 2.

  • Shepherd

    @Bill

    Any thoughts on Nashville?? PLEASE… :mrgreen:

  • Jonay Moon

    Do you think ABC will try and save Once upon a time in wonderland by moving it to Sundays and cancel betrayal?

  • Dan

    OUAT and Betrayal will both finish out their limited 13 episode seasons in their slots like how Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue were supposed to. Agents of Shield will return for a second season and its the second year in a row where probably only 1 freshman drama from the season is renewed.

    Not sure what to say regarding the comedies. The Goldbergs will surely get a full season and while Trophy Wife has ok retention after Goldbergs the retention of Back in the Game and Super Fun Night is something to be concerned about. ABC should make a decision on these comedies soon.

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