ABC: 'Once Upon A Time In Wonderland' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 15th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 13, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Lucky 7* canceled 0.44
The Neighbors (F) :oops: 0.47
Betrayal :oops: 0.52
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.60
Trophy Wife :oops: 0.78
Once Upon A Time In Wonderland :cry: :cry: 0.78
Nashville :| :| :| 0.84
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.88
Back In The Game :| :| :| 0.90
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.96
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.06
The Goldbergs :) :) :) :) 1.09
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
Super Fun Night :) :) :) :) 1.30
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.41
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.53
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.66
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.87

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Once Upon A Time In Wonderland premiered to a 1.7 adults 18-49 rating on Thursday at 8pm, 23% below the premiere of also canceled Last Resort last season, tapping it as certain to be canceled. The Cancellation Bear will dine on Alice and friends by the end of the season, maybe sooner.

Back In The Game was moved down to "toss up". Trophy Wife and The Neighbors are now both certain to be canceled. These changes will likely make their way to the post headlines over the next few weeks.

Is the bear feeling nervous about his pre-season call that the ABC syndication gods will demand that  Revenge be renewed for a fourth season? Just a bit. Will the syndication gods have the mojo to save the show if its ratings keep sinking? Stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • aciel

    *handle*

  • glover

    ABC should give up on that tuesday comedy block. They could launch a new drama after SHIELD (I would try Mind Games).

    The Middle looks compatible with The Goldbergs, so as Modern Family and Trophy Wife. This looks like a solid comedy 2-hour block but now I think it’s late to do that. Super Fun Night and Mixology could make a solid 1-hour block but I don’t know where to put them. Fridays don’t look like it would work.

    I would move Greys to thursday 8pm and launch a new drama at 9. With Shonda leading in and leading out a strong and compatible drama I can see it working. But the dramas ABC has left don’t look good enough for this. Maybe next fall.

    ABC Sunday is a mess. Ressurrection will fail at 10 so if they put it at 9 moving Revenge to 10 it would have a better chance. But if it fails either way, Revenge would be even more damaged.

    Next season ABC have to spend more money on their new pilots (even SHIELD look cheap) and really make some audacious moves on its schedule.

  • Dan

    @Glover – I agree and I’ve been saying that for a while, The Middle, The Goldbergs, Modern Family and Trophy Wife would make a great Wednesday night.

    I think if Super Fun Night gets a full season it will be paired with Mixology later this season.

  • Randy

    Revenge should be cancelled already. I think abc really did a bad job by having Once Upon a Time In Wonderland come on a week later than all the other new shows. That is just a stupid idea. People picked other shows to watch by that time, and thus the premiere wasn’t great for ratings. It’s ridiculous on abc’s watch to have a brand new show go up against one of cbs’s all time shows with the Big Bang Theory, and that’s what they did.

    Put a show with high ratings against cbs at that time. Why not put Grey’s Antimony & Scandal at 7pm & 8pm central time, and move Wonderland to 9pm central. Fox has the news at 9pm, and so does the CW, so that’s less competition for a newer show. Something like that makes more sense because those other 2 shows are established shows. They did the same exact thing with Charlie’s Angels in a previous year. They had that against the Big Bang Theory too, and it got cancelled. Really, if you are cbs, abc or nbc, you should have a lot of your newer shows be at 9pm central because there is less competition due to the other 2 major networks having news instead of original tv shows.

  • Randy

    I don’t know why they can’t put the un-aired Lucky 7 episodes on the internet already. I want to watch them.

  • Fred

    @Ultima

    Thank you for your very thorough response !
    I value your assessments.

  • Duarte

    Revenge should have a last season order, and will premiere the last season (4) in Thursdays, at 8pm

  • omabin

    @Ultima,

    If I may ask, where did that 20-25% cushin for a third season show came from? I usually use a way bigger number (around 80%), based on examples from the last 3 years (Fringe, Nikita, Chuck, etc.). I am just curious if you actually did some sort of estimation or if you just threw it as an estimate?

  • FRED

    The Nashville vs Revenge match is very intriguing.

    REVENGE is performing slightly better but it airs on SUN @ 9:00. A very heavily viewed and competitive slot.
    NASHVILLE is underperforming WED @ 10:00. Competition is fairly weak . I think lots of viewers are watching their DVRs at this time.

    As for creative concerns:

    REVENGE seems to have improved plot wise since last season. However some of the acting is below par. Lets just say the best performances among the main cast are Mr and Mrs Grayson, Emily (really Amanda for the uninitiated) and Nolan. The rest vary from just OK to awful. This is primetime network tv for heaven’s sake! Some of the supporting cast is very good though especially Colette Valois formally of Pan Am (miss that show dearly).

    NASHVILLE is not as riveting as last season. The music is also not quite season 1 quality either. Doesn’t help that Connie Britton hasn’t been performing. Some of plots are dull and depressing as well. But not giving up on this gem. The potential for great drama is just an episode or 2 away.

  • milo

    I wonder if Wonderland would have actually done OK if they had stuck with their original plan to have it come in and fill in during the original OUAT’s break mid season?

  • queeneeuq

    Ha! The new ‘hit’ comedy The Goldbergs is now in Trophy Wife levels. Hehe. Now who’s the troll. :-)

  • FRED

    @Milo

    Probably better than a 1.7 for the pilot.
    I actually thought it was pretty entertaining. Although I’m a big fan of the fantasy genre so I may be biased. LOST was my all time favorite show.

  • Ultima

    @omabin
    If I may ask, where did that 20-25% cushin for a third season show came from? I usually use a way bigger number (around 80%), based on examples from the last 3 years (Fringe, Nikita, Chuck, etc.). I am just curious if you actually did some sort of estimation or if you just threw it as an estimate?

    Just shooting from the hip! ;)

    I went with a number low enough that people probably wouldn’t challenge it and high enough that people couldn’t make a reasonable argument for Nashville beating Revenge.

    Also, keep in mind that the examples you gave a somewhat different than Revenge/Nashville. Fringe was already airing on Fridays and had a shortened order. Chuck’s only competition was freshman shows and it was moving to Fridays with a shortened order. Nikita is only getting six episodes.

    Revenge will not be airing on Fridays next season and will need a full season order. If ABC has a couple of midseason hits and Nashville is topping Revenge in the ratings by 80%, I think Revenge ends up canceled.

  • Dan

    Revenge will get a full fourth and maybe unannounced final season. Its possible in the middle of that season ABC will announce it to be the last but at this point its still too early to tell.

  • Fred

    A bit off topic: ABC has been struggling Sun @10 ever since B&S (R.I.P) I considered that show a high quality family oriented adult drama. It lasted for many years.
    ABC replaced it with seemingly high budget shows like Pan Am ( loved it)GCB and 666 Park Ave ( miss this one too).
    All failed fairly miserably.
    This season ABC tried with a low profile VERY low budget cheap looking Betrayal. It has the look if a cheap cable drama from decades ago. It’s also dull and sleep- inducing. Can’t believe I watched it past the pilot. Did ABC really believe it had potential to be more successful than past time slot entries?
    I believe not . I actually believe that ABC scheduled the least expensive scripted show in the struggling slot to help cover losses from past years. Or had some back room deal to get it on the air . Possibly owed favors or something to that effect.
    Same situation with Lucky 7. Now that was an even more disastrous pilot. However A certain famous director was executive producer so that answers that mystery .

  • Fred

    Cont….
    Amblin Televison produced Lucky 7. Speilberg is attached to that company.

    I

  • Fred

    Then again if Betrayal turned out to be a hit we would be praising ABC for finding another Scandal and to a much lesser extent Revenge genre hit. Scandal had disappointing reviews and ratings much of season 1 , who could have predicted it would become a 10pm monster hit?
    I guess ABC figured it could take a risk with Betrayal and hope for the best.
    In any case ABC should ax it now and air reruns of anything until it figures out what to do.

    Sorry for the rambling, I just find this all very baffling .

  • aciel

    @fred
    expect scandal never went below a 2.0 it held somewhere between 2.0-2.1 for the for first season and early second season. theres no way in hell that betrayal will end up a hit if its already getting below a 1.0 if it was at least getting ratings like a 1.8 to 2.0 then there wouldn’ve been hope

  • aciel

    if they do indeed decide to cancel revenge this season then the networks should just renew revenge for half of the fourth season and give the writers at least 13 episodes to at least wrap the show up for a fourth and final season

  • Ultima

    @aciel
    at least 13 episodes to at least wrap the show up for a fourth and final season

    If Revenge gets renewed, it will be for 22 episodes, because that’s how many it needs to ideally run in strip syndication.

    Most of the 13ish episode final seasons you see are for either (a) shows trying to hit 100 episodes for syndication, (b) shows that started midseason and need a short fifth season to hit 88 episodes for syndication, or (c) long running shows that are getting a sendoff.

    It’s usually pointless to renew a show for a shorter final season that leaves it with ~80 episodes.

    There are rare exceptions to this, of course (e.g. Nikita).

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