ABC: 'Once Upon A Time In Wonderland' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 15th, 2013

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


growling-brown-bear-7662277

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 13, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Lucky 7* canceled 0.44
The Neighbors (F) :oops: 0.47
Betrayal :oops: 0.52
Last Man Standing (F) :| :| :| 0.60
Trophy Wife :oops: 0.78
Once Upon A Time In Wonderland :cry: :cry: 0.78
Nashville :| :| :| 0.84
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.88
Back In The Game :| :| :| 0.90
Castle :) :) :) :) 0.96
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.06
The Goldbergs :) :) :) :) 1.09
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.16
Super Fun Night :) :) :) :) 1.30
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.41
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.53
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.66
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.87

-
Once Upon A Time In Wonderland premiered to a 1.7 adults 18-49 rating on Thursday at 8pm, 23% below the premiere of also canceled Last Resort last season, tapping it as certain to be canceled. The Cancellation Bear will dine on Alice and friends by the end of the season, maybe sooner.

Back In The Game was moved down to "toss up". Trophy Wife and The Neighbors are now both certain to be canceled. These changes will likely make their way to the post headlines over the next few weeks.

Is the bear feeling nervous about his pre-season call that the ABC syndication gods will demand that  Revenge be renewed for a fourth season? Just a bit. Will the syndication gods have the mojo to save the show if its ratings keep sinking? Stay tuned.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
-

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • aciel

    @ultima
    if the ratings end up falling further this season then it would be pointless to leave it on air for another full season because basically ratings are going to be like 0.8 or something so i think if the ratings end up falling further then abc will probably renew it for only half a season. i understand how the syndication process works but i guess we will have to see what happens. i mean nikita got really bad ratings and only ended up getting renewed for 6 episodes i’m pretty sure that will be the case for revenge due to its thin premise

  • aciel

    i really hope that revenge doesn’t fall further though, last weeks episode raised the stakes for this show so hopefully next week with the walking dead down a little from its premiere and the cliffhanger last episode left us with will see an increase in ratings by like 2 tenths.

  • Theoacme

    @Scandalicious: I think the ABC field is the most interesting out of all the networks… ABC is somewhere in the middle.

    You just gave me an idea to revive AFHV: Why not have Patricia Heaton host the Sunday evening institution that is AFHV? ~smiles~

  • Fred

    I think it’s premature to call Revenge a failure this season. True it has bee performing below expectations but lets give it several more episodes to judge. As a previous posher mentioned it ended with a cliffhanger last Sunday. I’m expecting an uptick in the ratings. But again I am biased because I’m a fan..So I really can’t give an objective opinion or prediction.
    Now Nashville (also a fan)has less momentum for it. Scripts have been dull and annoying Music is below par at least compared to last season ( thanks to Rayna played by the amazing Connie Britton)losing her voice from a bad accident.
    As I mentioned before Im not giving up on it because it has great potential to regain season 1 luster.
    I really don’t know how much longer ABC will be patient with it. The #s are awful and the show is simply not living up to its potential. So far I think Revenge had a much greater chance of renewal despite what the chart above states .
    Again I’m a fan of both shows so…….

  • Fred

    Cont….

    With the disastrous performances of Lucky 7 and Betrayal ABC might just hang on to Nashville and Revenge. They may not be hits but they are modest performers given today’s low expectations .
    Obviously not every show is gonna be a Grey’s and Scandal.

  • Dan

    @Fred – That’s what saved shows like Castle in the past. Shows like Private Practice, Caste, Revenge, OUAT, and Nashville were never hits (Although OUAT started out well) were kept around because everything else failed. Remember that 2007-2008 writers strike? Well after 6 dramas that season only PP coninued and then the next season only Castle was renewed and then the next season only V was renewed for 2 more seasons and the next season only Body of Proof for 3 more seasons.

    My theory somewhat based on facts is that if ABC only renews SHIELD for a second season even with its numbers slowly going down, as its only renewed freshman drama and if everything else is a complete flop, Lucky 7, Betrayal, Resurrection, OUAT Wonderland, Killer Women, then Nashville is safe.

    Grey’s and Castle cant go on forever (they’re fine for another season or so), and Scandal is the only breakout hit. Other shows like Revenge and OUAT have syndication going for it and also if ABC axed them they would have more holes to fill. If all of ABC’s dramas flop but Shield, (and do worse than Nashville) then consider Nashville safe.

    I was surprised at the Body of Proof cancellation since ABC could have used the show as spackle when Lucky 7 failed (It could have come in handy) but I guess ABC was very confident in its new shows. Its a familiar pattern when a network cancels an old bubble show in favor of a new show and then the new show fails and the network has to start from scratch.

    My guess is that Killer Women will premiere in the Tuesday 10pm slot around February once most of the dramas return for their second halves. Shield and Castle don’t have split runs but both will probably return around late Jan early Feb. There’s no reaosn to air new eps in early Jan though.

    I’m curious to see what shows ABC will air in place of Grey’s Scandal etc Jan-Feb.

  • omabin

    @Ultima,

    Fair enough. But I still think 20-30% is too low. I like my odds with the very high 80% a bit better. And with it it is still hard for me to come up with a scenario in which Revenge is cancelled. Right now, my home-made index would be something like this (-10% for new shows, +80% for shows approaching 88 episodes, +15% for shows approaching 100% episodes. Everything is through the use of weighted averages that give greater importance to more recent episodes):
    - Once Upon a Time: 1.98
    - Scandal: 1.40
    - Revenge: 1.34
    - Grey’s Anatomy: 1.24
    - Agents of Shield: 0.99
    - Castle: 0.97
    - Nashville: 0.75
    - Once Upon a Time in Wonderland: 0.69
    - Betrayal: 0.35

    Even if I replace my number by yours 30% (and I really think that’s too low), it goes to:
    - Once Upon a Time: 1.58
    - Scandal: 1.55
    - Grey’s Anatomy: 1.37
    - Agents of Shield: 1.09
    - Revenge: 1.07
    - Castle: 1.07
    - Nashville: 0.82
    - Once Upon a Time in Wonderland: 0.76
    - Betrayal: 0.38

    I doubt any midseason drama can beat Revenge in the index and I don’t see Nashville beating it either, the gap is still too big and I doubt there would be an instance in which Revenge ratings would continue to free fall to the low 1s while Nashville ratings don’t. Possible, yes, but extremely unlikely.

  • Ultima

    @aciel
    if the ratings end up falling further this season then it would be pointless to leave it on air for another full season because basically ratings are going to be like 0.8 or something so i think if the ratings end up falling further then abc will probably renew it for only half a season.

    If Revenge is getting ratings like 0.8 by the end of the season, ABC is not going to renew the show a half a season because there’s no financial motivation to do so; they’ll just cancel it.

    i understand how the syndication process works

    Your comments suggest otherwise.

    but i guess we will have to see what happens.

    I don’t have to guess. It will either be renewed for a full season or canceled.

    i mean nikita got really bad ratings and only ended up getting renewed for 6 episodes i’m pretty sure that will be the case for revenge due to its thin premise

    Expecting any show to get a similar treatment to Nikita is ridiculous. It’s an extremely rare exception (possibly unprecedented on broadcast) and it’s a waste of time to make comparisons to it.

  • Fa1c0n

    Can the syndication gods save Revenge? It is seriously in danger of going down the toilet after how bad it has been performing. Grey’s Anatomy will run as long as it wants to now that it has established ten years at ABC.
    Scandal’s ratings continue to be impressive, I can set this running as long or if not longer than Grey’s does.

  • Evan

    Ummm, Once Upon a Time is meant to be a short one time season, so there’s no chance of it being cancelled after it’s done.

  • Dan

    @ Evan – it could have come back for a second season if it was successful like Hostages or Betrayal but instead they will be axed after the limited runs.

    ABC has ordered more scripts for Goldbergs and Trophy Wife which are two of ABCs best comedies

    Maybe ABC will make the right decision and move Goldbergs behind The Middle and Trophy Wife behind Modern Family.

  • Cle

    The Five Schedule Objective ABC will have next Season
    -Drop the 4th hour of comedy (Tuesday) and replace with a Drama
    -Renew 2 new comedies and 2 new dramas and cancel once veteran drama
    -Renew 1 new drama and 3 new comedies
    -Fix Thurs @8pm by moving a veteran (Best Candidate Greys) if the next coming drama fails here

  • omabin

    Why does everyone believe that ABC will cancel a veteran (i.e. Nashville)?

    While I agree that it is a bubble show, if all midseason dramas flop, as expected, ABC could easily go for just 3 new dramas as they did last year (slots of Wonderland, Betrayal and Lucky 7). Also, even though they seemed determined to stick with it no matter how wrong it goes, I think some thought should also be given to the possibility that they reduce the comedy hours to 3, in which case yet another slot would be vacant.

    Midseason dramas on ABC are unlikely to succeed, mainly because the network just uses it to replace failed shows in what are usually complicated timeslots. Mind Games will die after whatever comedy lead-in it gets at 8h30 while facing Chicago fire and person of interest. Killer Women will be another Thursday at 8 flop. And ressurection has no chance on the terrible Sundays at 10 hour after a weak revenge… if 666 couldn’t do it with way more hype and when revenge was on high 3s, why would midseason entry resurrection when revenge is likely on mid to low 1s by then? There are exceptions sure and I am not saying it is impossible, but I think it is very unlikely. It is no coincidence that the last midseason drama from ABC to succeed, Scandal, was one in which they actually reshuffled stuff around for it to premiere (PP to Tuesdays giving it the Grey’s lead in) instead of a plug in bad timeslots.

  • John

    wonderland is a sure goner. if it is doing this bad this early on, it is highly unlikely it will do better in coming episodes, especially after midseason. i wouldn’t even be surprised if ABC pulls the plug on this earlier. i agree that they should have just aired wonderland in OUAT’s timeslot during midseason.

  • Elena

    I still don’t get why Revenge is “Certain to Be Renewed” when it performs just slightly better than Nashville, which is a bubble show, and far less than Castle, which is “Likely to Be Renewed”. I’m so confused!

  • Sharon

    Where’s The Blacklist? It’s my favorite new show of the season. Hope it gets renewed.

  • Anonymous

    Castle did a major switch in the storyline and the rating just dropped off the chart. Now they are trying to switch it back by re-hiring Beckett and have it the same as before. Good luck with that! It like a 1/2 a point drop! I give it a 50-50 chance! It too bad the powers to be wanted to do this change. It was a good storyline and kept the interest every episode until Becketts new D.C. job.

  • dj

    Wow, you got a few of these wrong. Some of the doomed ones have already received full season orders!

  • Wesley

    Does not look like any show is doing outstanding this year. I love Nashville. It is one of the best shows out there. ABC needs to move it up one hour to 9PM.

  • Brandy

    @Elena, Revenge is certain to be renewed for syndication, whie Nashville is two seasons away from syndicatin andCastle has reached syndication

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures