CBS: ‘The Good Wife’ Or ‘The Mentalist’ Will Be Canceled, Maybe Both Of Them
Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewCBSShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 13, 2013):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Good Wife||:| :| :|||0.57|
|The Mentalist||:| :| :|||0.59|
|Blue Bloods (F)||:) :) :) :)||0.60|
|Hawaii Five-0 (F)||:) :) :) :)||0.61|
|We Are Men*||canceled||0.74|
|CSI||:) :) :) :)||0.80|
|Elementary||:) :) :) :)||0.80|
|Person Of Interest||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||0.85|
|Mom||:| :| :|||0.91|
|2 Broke Girls||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.00|
|Two And A Half Men||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.01|
|Criminal Minds||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.08|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.11|
|The Crazy Ones||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.23|
|The Millers||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.26|
|How I Met Your Mother||final season||1.31|
|NCIS||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.32|
|The Big Bang Theory||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||2.19|
Once CBS dramas get moved to Sunday or Friday nights, they’re just biding time piling up episodes for the syndication deals that make CBS piles of cash (and motivate other studios to cut their license fees to keep their shows on the air, like The Mentalist). As such, the future of all those shows is likely determined by syndication economics that are hidden to us.
Still, dramas have to go to make room on the schedule for next Fall. While the Bubble Watch thinks that Hawaii Five-0 is in danger, the cancellation bear disagrees. The bear thinks the Sunday dramas, The Good Wife or The Mentalist, are on much shakier ground. One of those two will certainly be canceled, maybe both of them.
Unlike the typically easy to anticipate CBS season to season moves, next season raises many questions that make predicting how many dramas get canceled a bit trickier than usual.
- Does CBS keep Undercover Boss in the Fall? (yes, no change to drama hours; no, add one drama hour)
- Does CBS keep the same number of sitcom hours? (yes, no change to drama hours; no, reduce sitcoms by 1 hr = add one drama hour)
- Does Intelligence succeed, and CBS pair it with another short run serial? (yes, no change to procedural drama hours; no, add one procedural drama hour).
- How many new dramas do they premiere in the Fall? (three has been typical in recent years, but this season saw only one)
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
- :oops: – certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
- :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
- :| :| :| – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
- :) :) :) :) – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
- :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: – certain to be renewed by May, 2014
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.