CBS: 'The Good Wife' Or 'The Mentalist' Will Be Canceled, Maybe Both Of Them

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 15th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 13, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.57
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.59
Hostages :oops: 0.60
Blue Bloods (F) :) :) :) :) 0.60
Hawaii Five-0 (F) :) :) :) :) 0.61
We Are Men* canceled 0.74
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.80
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.80
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.85
Mom :| :| :| 0.91
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Two and a Half Men :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
The Crazy Ones :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.23
The Millers :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.26
How I Met Your Mother final season 1.31
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.32
The Big Bang Theory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.19

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Once CBS dramas get moved to Sunday or Friday nights, they're just biding time piling up episodes for the syndication deals that make CBS piles of cash (and motivate other studios to cut their license fees to keep their shows on the air, like The Mentalist). As such, the future of all those shows is likely determined by syndication economics that are hidden to us.

Still, dramas have to go to make room on the schedule for next Fall. While the Bubble Watch thinks that Hawaii Five-0 is in danger, the Cancellation Bear disagrees. The bear thinks the Sunday dramas, The Good Wife or The Mentalist, are on much shakier ground. One of those two will certainly be canceled, maybe both of them.

Unlike the typically easy to anticipate CBS season to season moves, next season raises many questions that make predicting how many dramas get canceled a bit trickier than usual.

  • Does CBS keep Undercover Boss in the Fall? (yes, no change to drama hours; no, add one drama hour)
  • Does CBS keep the same number of sitcom hours? (yes, no change to drama hours; no, reduce sitcoms by 1 hr = add one drama hour)
  • Does Intelligence succeed, and CBS pair it with another short run serial? (yes, no change to procedural drama hours; no, add one procedural drama hour).
  • How many new dramas do they premiere in the Fall? (three has been typical in recent years, but this season saw only one)

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • alim

    mentalist please, dragged it out.

  • Franko

    I have a feeling The Mentalist will end in May. They will probably reveal Red John by the end of the season, 2 cast members are leaving.

    Still think they’ll milk up another season of The Good Wife due to syndication.

  • Hardline_Pro

    How many years had TVBTN said The Good Wife will get cancelled? 3 or 4?!

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “How many years had TVBTN said The Good Wife will get cancelled? 3 or 4?!”

    Not last season.

    Not the season before.

    Perhaps 3 seasons ago. Feel free to check.

  • jay

    the plot for the mentalist certainly feels like they are trying to wrap everything up so it can end in the spring…

  • Jonay

    CBS now do you feel dumb for canceling Rules Of Engagement? Schedule Spackle for We Are Men!

  • Morgan Wick

    What are the chances CBS doesn’t replace the drama that gets cancelled on the Sunday schedule, at least in fall, and finally stops the Sunday NFL overrun schedule madness? Crazy I know!

  • hammard

    @ Hardline Pro
    None
    2012-3: Predicted Renewal for syndication
    2011-2: Toss-up but leaning towards renewal for syndication
    2010-1: Toss-up
    2009-10: Likely renewal

  • Parker Wyeth

    I really think The Mentalist will end. The Red John background storyline is being tied up and Van Pelt and Rigsby are leaving. It would be difficult to try and reboot the show with a whole new storyline.
    I can see the Good Wife hanging on for one more season(maybe a short one).

  • Marc

    I don’t watch the good wife, but I like to predict the cancellations by looking at the story lines.

    (That’s why even though on this site they could not predict if it was CSI NY or CSI Miami going 1st, but people who watch both knew it was CSI Miami, by the story lines, which also pointed to CSI NY being cancelled last year – they were nice enough to let these shows finish with closing the story lines)

    That’s why sadly I predict that Mentalist is going to be cancelled. Every episode is now focused on Red John, and they are closing off loose ends.
    And ending character arcs. (they are getting prepared to close up shop, but could stretch it to 2 years if need be)

    But Patrick Jane is Red John (a la Fight Club prediction), he has a split personailty brought on by witnessing the murder of his family.

  • Wn

    This season, The Mentalist is capturing Red John before 2014, acquiring 2 new cast members, and starting a new arc. To me, that sounds as if no one has thrown in the towel yet as far as the show goes. I’m definitely enjoying it this year. It feels rejuvenated and is threading the line between drama and comedy very well.

  • anna g

    As much as I like TGW, it has been chased vigorously by the bear since last season. I’m affraid it won’t escape this time. As for TM, I could not care less about this show. Probably both are goners.

  • sally

    keep The Mentalist, cancel Good Wife

  • Shepherd

    I still think CBS is in pretty good shape compared to the other networks, particularly ABC and NBC (minus TV).

  • SJ

    Sad to say, The Good Wife is dunzo. Which bums me out, as its currently at its creative peak – in season five, no less! But yeah, it and The Mentalist will have to make room for some new blood next season and given the implosion of Hostages this year and the unsustainability of any mid-season drama on CBS for the better part of the last decade, they will want to start hitting the (procedural) drama chord harder than ever, meaning – three procedural drama premieres next fall.

    As far as the comedies, I can see them giving back orders to all of them. Maybe they’ll keep the two extra ones they ordered for summer. None of the existing ones are doing amazingly, but I can’t see them cutting any of them halfway through the season.

  • Bad Wolf

    If only one of them gets cancelled, please let it be The Mentalist, CBS ! Well, seriously, I will be astonished if The Good Wife survives yet again this season, I’ll be very happy if CBS doesn’t reduce what is shaping up as a stellar season. Oh and please CBS, if you could avoid pulling a Ghost Whisperer (advertising its final episode as a season finale to cancel the show during the upfronts), I’ll be forever grateful.

    Blue Bloods and Hawaii 5-0 maybe out of the woods this year, but their fans will probably experience what The Good Wife and The Mentalist fans are experiencing now.

  • Jared

    No way they cancel The Good Wife. It still has so much buzz for CBS. It’ll at least have one maybe two more seasons.

  • THE OLD MAN

    Or Intelligence succeeds & shares time slot w/ TGW, ergo making the show safe for yet another year!

    CBS is just so perplexing, I must say!

  • tjw

    @Bill,

    To be fair, the last two seasons have started with some variation on “Two of Vegas, CSI:NY, The Mentalist, and The Good Wife will be canceled” or “One of CSI: Miami, The Mentalist, and The Good Wife will be canceled.” It’s just that it was always somebody else.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “@Bill,

    To be fair, the last two seasons have started with some variation on “Two of Vegas, CSI:NY, The Mentalist, and The Good Wife will be canceled” or “One of CSI: Miami, The Mentalist, and The Good Wife will be canceled.” It’s just that it was always somebody else.”

    To be fair, each of those headlines was an absolutely correct prediction.

    The fact that they drew the crazy in, was their intent! ;)

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