CBS: 'The Good Wife' Or 'The Mentalist' Will Be Canceled, Maybe Both Of Them

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 15th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 13, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.57
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.59
Hostages :oops: 0.60
Blue Bloods (F) :) :) :) :) 0.60
Hawaii Five-0 (F) :) :) :) :) 0.61
We Are Men* canceled 0.74
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.80
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.80
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.85
Mom :| :| :| 0.91
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Two and a Half Men :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
The Crazy Ones :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.23
The Millers :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.26
How I Met Your Mother final season 1.31
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.32
The Big Bang Theory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.19

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Once CBS dramas get moved to Sunday or Friday nights, they're just biding time piling up episodes for the syndication deals that make CBS piles of cash (and motivate other studios to cut their license fees to keep their shows on the air, like The Mentalist). As such, the future of all those shows is likely determined by syndication economics that are hidden to us.

Still, dramas have to go to make room on the schedule for next Fall. While the Bubble Watch thinks that Hawaii Five-0 is in danger, the Cancellation Bear disagrees. The bear thinks the Sunday dramas, The Good Wife or The Mentalist, are on much shakier ground. One of those two will certainly be canceled, maybe both of them.

Unlike the typically easy to anticipate CBS season to season moves, next season raises many questions that make predicting how many dramas get canceled a bit trickier than usual.

  • Does CBS keep Undercover Boss in the Fall? (yes, no change to drama hours; no, add one drama hour)
  • Does CBS keep the same number of sitcom hours? (yes, no change to drama hours; no, reduce sitcoms by 1 hr = add one drama hour)
  • Does Intelligence succeed, and CBS pair it with another short run serial? (yes, no change to procedural drama hours; no, add one procedural drama hour).
  • How many new dramas do they premiere in the Fall? (three has been typical in recent years, but this season saw only one)

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • tjw

    To Wit:

    October 19th, 2010 – “CBS: Medium, CSI: NY, Blue Bloods, Good Wife, Defenders; Something’s Gotta Give!”

    March 6th, 2012 – “CBS: One, Maybe Two, Of ‘CSI:NY,’ ‘CSI: Miami,’ & ‘The Good Wife’ Will Be Canceled”

    October 23rd, 2012 – “CBS: Two Of ‘CSI:NY,’ ‘The Good Wife,’ ‘The Mentalist’ & ‘Vegas’ Will Be Canceled”

    November 20th, 2012 – “CBS: One Of ‘CSI:NY,’ ‘The Mentalist’ Or ‘The Good Wife’ Will Be Canceled”

    February 5th, 2013 – “CBS: One Of ‘The Good Wife,’ ‘CSI:NY’ & ‘The Mentalist’ Will Be Canceled”

    Not saying you’re wrong, but there is an established pattern.

  • tjw

    Writing inflammatory headlines to drive page views? That doesn’t sound like you. :)

    And to be fair to you, those headlines all ended up being accurate.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Not saying you’re wrong, but there is an established pattern.”

    One man’s “established pattern” is another bear’s “recycling of good content”.

  • Stephen

    I’m thinking if only one goes it’s more likely Mentalist because TGW is in season 5 and having some type of season 6 is probably more lucrative for syndication, but that’s just an assumption. With Blue Bloods & 5-0 looking safer both Sunday dramas could be done after this season.

    As for comedies, Mom is next in danger but it is a Chuck Lorre sitcom so it may get more of a chance. The rest are all doing ok enough so will be interesting to see what happens in the spring.

    Are CSI and Elementary listed with 4 smilies at a 0.8 because there are a few dramas even worse or is it because TBBT laps all other shows and a 0.8 isn’t a “true” 0.8 so they are in a bit better shape than it seems?

  • r0ckmypants

    @Jonay – “CBS now do you feel dumb for canceling Rules Of Engagement? Schedule Spackle for We Are Men!”

    Why would they need it for spackle? Mike & Molly is already returning in time for November Sweeps. And it will, in all likelihood, do better than Rules had done last season.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Are CSI and Elementary listed with 4 smilies at a 0.8 because there are a few dramas even worse or is it because TBBT laps all other shows and a 0.8 isn’t a “true” 0.8 so they are in a bit better shape than it seems?”

    There’s a certain level of uncodified fudging. Veteran shows, 10pm, assumption CBS will only cancel a certain number of drama hours, etc.

  • Robert

    As a fan of TGW, I feel lucky it’s gotten to season 5 honestly. My only hope is that if the show doesn’t get a 6th season, they at least have an episode where Alicia and Kalinda are forced to speak for more than 30 seconds. That relationship needs some closure. Ugh.

  • Dan

    The past few years Good Wife was a bubble show but then possible syndication helped it get a fifth season renewal and The Mentalist got a 6th season too. Both will be cancelled by May as will Hostages.

    RIP The Mentalist 2008-2014, The Good Wife 2009-2014

    The Millers, Mom, and Crazy Ones will either get full seasons or additional eps and both Hawaii 5-0 and Blue Bloods will get fifth seasons. I’m certain of that.

  • DW

    i’ve come to this site for two years now and its TWG will be cancelled and its usually by the fans. TGW is in season 5 its had a great run but my feeling is it will last as long as it wants to due to people who watch it are in a higher income bracket , it has a pretty good rerun deal and cbs owns it.

  • Don

    Not a big fan of The Good Wife but The Mentalist is a great show. CBS needs to rethink the time slots for these shows. It is tough to watch on a Sunday night when you cannot get the football timing down. Who is going to watch at midnight? They cancel the half hour comedy’s after two showings. If those time slots are so irregular during football and the holiday season, schedule some of the comedies in those slots. The only reason CBS is making any headway is because so much crap appears elsewhere.

  • Vanquished

    Every year its the same old story. The Goodwife – likely to be cancelled lol.

    For some reason this show gets to stay on the air, no idea why.

  • CreacK

    Based on your predictions, I don’t think that CBS will drop a comedy hour. You have 5 comedies certain to be renewed, one that’s a toss-up, and one that hasn’t aired but I’m guessing is likely to be renewed as of now. CBS seems to like adding at least one new comedy each year and counting 5 certain’s and 1 likely, that gives us six and I feel its unlikely they’ll keep one established comedy in the wings again next year, so that means they’ll need 4 comedy hours. Maybe they weren’t expecting Millers to be a hit(I know I wasn’t). Also, dont forget that CBS still has two new comedies waiting in the wings. I dont see Bad Teacher being a hit and out running the cancelation bear but Friend’s With Better lives seems to be highly anticipated so it has a chance of surviving too. The only way I could see CBS making a veteren comedy wait again would be if they renewed Mom for a half season.

  • JJ

    @Vanquished

    Because The Good Wife is the highest quality series currently on network television. End of Discussion. At least I like to think that for once, the quality matters.

  • DenverDean

    @Bill Gorman – Have you tried a renewal index that tosses out extreme highs/low? TBBT is so off the charts – almost .8 higher than #2, that it really does throw things off. No other network has that big of a disparity between #1 & #2. I’d be curious how things look once you toss out TBBT.

  • The 47th

    I didn’t even know The Mentalist was still going.

  • Stephen

    @ Bill -

    Thanks for answering my question – that makes sense that there’s a few different reasons. I had kind of forgotten about the 10pm shows having a bit lower expectations too.

  • cas

    I feel they should just not put anything on Sunday nights. I mean I know they need to fill slots but why not use it for reruns? Or just have one show on the schedule? It’s rather annoying when something starts an hour later because of football, or you forget to adjust your DVR at the beginning of the season to record an extra hour so you go to start a show and you can’t even watch it.

  • Kat

    As a TGW fan, I hate that I agree with this. It sucks because the show is (so far) having a fantastic season with this current “civil war” arc. I think as long as CBS indicates to the showrunners early that it’s the final stretch I will be okay. If it’s going to end, I at least want it done right.

  • CraveRecords

    The Good Wife is a CBS production and nothing does well on Sunday nights these days other than football. I say it gets another season with a slashed budget and lots of cast departures.

  • r0ckmypants

    @CraveRecords – “nothing does well on Sunday nights these days other than football.”

    You must have missed The Walking Dead’s 8.2 rating.

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