CBS: 'The Good Wife' Or 'The Mentalist' Will Be Canceled, Maybe Both Of Them

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 15th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 13, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.57
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.59
Hostages :oops: 0.60
Blue Bloods (F) :) :) :) :) 0.60
Hawaii Five-0 (F) :) :) :) :) 0.61
We Are Men* canceled 0.74
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.80
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.80
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.85
Mom :| :| :| 0.91
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Two and a Half Men :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
The Crazy Ones :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.23
The Millers :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.26
How I Met Your Mother final season 1.31
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.32
The Big Bang Theory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.19

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Once CBS dramas get moved to Sunday or Friday nights, they're just biding time piling up episodes for the syndication deals that make CBS piles of cash (and motivate other studios to cut their license fees to keep their shows on the air, like The Mentalist). As such, the future of all those shows is likely determined by syndication economics that are hidden to us.

Still, dramas have to go to make room on the schedule for next Fall. While the Bubble Watch thinks that Hawaii Five-0 is in danger, the Cancellation Bear disagrees. The bear thinks the Sunday dramas, The Good Wife or The Mentalist, are on much shakier ground. One of those two will certainly be canceled, maybe both of them.

Unlike the typically easy to anticipate CBS season to season moves, next season raises many questions that make predicting how many dramas get canceled a bit trickier than usual.

  • Does CBS keep Undercover Boss in the Fall? (yes, no change to drama hours; no, add one drama hour)
  • Does CBS keep the same number of sitcom hours? (yes, no change to drama hours; no, reduce sitcoms by 1 hr = add one drama hour)
  • Does Intelligence succeed, and CBS pair it with another short run serial? (yes, no change to procedural drama hours; no, add one procedural drama hour).
  • How many new dramas do they premiere in the Fall? (three has been typical in recent years, but this season saw only one)

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • KJ Styles

    @Mori- “I had hope that person of interest would be doing better. However, I thought this would be TGW last season. I like the show and I find it sad that more people don’t watch this gem.”

    Same here! I’m shocked that POI isn’t doing better. Even more shocked that it’s losing to Chicago Fire! A show that couldn’t even beat CSI most weeks last year or even average a 2.0.

    POI isn’t in any danger this season, but I don’t want it moved to Sunday next season because it’d die there.

  • Brandy

    Will Big Bang Theory and 2 Broke Girls get announced “final seasons”when the time comes?

  • JSG

    @John

    I think the problem with that plot was that the guy was obviously innocent. There’s no conflicting emotions in the viewer when the state is trying to put an innocent man to death. Obviously, we have to root for a stay of execution and eventually his exoneration. I thought it would have been much more interesting if the guy was obviously guilty of some heinous crimes, but they were defending him anyway due to philosophical opposition to the death penalty (perhaps with some dissenting voices in the firm). In its best seasons, Law & Order managed to pull this kind of thing off.

  • Randy

    TM and TGW dropped significantly after the first 2 weeks. I could see one of them but both of them on the same week? Seems odd.I liked the Mentalist but I could see they were closing it down this year by the storyline.

    TGW has always hung in there but it is a show that has won awards and was well written, so I get that.

    I hope Grimm does well because that is a show I love. I am interested in how H50 is surviving but couldn’t care less about it as a show; just fascinated how it has had so many breaks.

    And I am interested in seeing if TNT has anything to do with H50’s fate? I know very little about how that all works and hope I learn a lot this season.

    Why did CBS choose to put BB and H50 on Fridays and TGW and TM on Sundays? What would happen if it had been the other way around?

  • Dan

    Medium got a final season too but that is only because the order was cut to 13 episodes

    The Mentalist isn’t a CBS production and already has a syndication deal, plus the Red John storyline is almost done.

    The Mentalist is done whether CBS decides to cancel it early or not.

    The Good Wife got over 100 eps for syndication, it’s a CBS production but its the lowest rated drama besides Hostages awards won’t keep this one going. It’s dunzo.

    Unlike the last few seasons when we we didn’t know what CBS would do regarding the CSI spinoffs, The Mentalist, The Good Wife and Blue Bloods this season we know exactly what will happen both CSI spinoffs are gone so

    The Mentalist and The Good Wife will be cancelled by CBS

    Hawaii 5-0 and Blue Bloods will be renewed for fifth seasons to get them over 100.

    I’m extremely confident with that guess.

  • Randy

    Makes sense, Dan. So they don’t care how poor H50 is doing or how weak it is as a show or that it is already in syndication either. They want one more season to build episodes and then cancel it after #5 and 100 episodes? I wonder then if TNT has already committed to 100 episodes and they can’t pull out before that for either BB or H50 even if they wanted to?

    That is well thought out, Dan. I appreciate posts here that are thoughtful and not just cheerleading.
    Thanks!

  • Dan

    @Randy – My guess regarding H50 and Blue Bloods is this, both shows are doing good enough for Fridays and both are doing better then the Sunday shows.

    I don’t think it matters if TNT and whatever network Blue Bloods will air on has committed too, the fact is more episodes that CBS can sell to these networks for syndication makes them more money so they will make due with the shows low ratings.

    It’s why CBS picked up Medium for 2 seasons, why CBS renewed Good Wife last season and why CBS kept CSI NY for 2 more seasons and 35 episodes more (over renewing Criminal Minds Suspect Behavior)

    If a show isn’t flopping completely and the network owns it they will put up with it for more episodes. Plus if CBS is going to cancel both Mentalist and Good Wife and Hostages why would they cancel BB and Hawaiii 5-0. They need those reliable shows until they have hits again and CBS has no new hit dramas this season.

  • HV

    Here are my predictions:

    VERY LIKELY CANCELED
    Hostages

    LIKELY CANCELED
    The Crazy Ones
    The Good Wife
    The Mentalist

    IN THE MIDDLE
    The Millers
    Mom
    Two and a Half Men

    LIKELY RENEWED
    2 Broke Girls
    Blue Bloods
    CSI: Crime Scene Investigation
    Elementary
    Hawaii Five-0
    Person of Interest

    VERY LIKELY RENEWED
    The Big Bang Theory
    Criminal Minds
    NCIS
    NCIS: Los Angeles

  • Dan

    @Randy – CBS is willing to put up with H50 and Blue Bloods less than perfect ratings is they can get just one more season out of them both to put them over 100 episodes. They arent doing horrible

    Also if CBS is certain to cancel The Good Wife and The Mentalist why would they get rid of BB or H50 when they had no breakout hits this season?

    Remember Hostages is a flop and my guess is Intelligence and Reckless will be too.

    If thats the case, CBS will want to keep H50 and BB just to have established veteran dramas on the air.

    One of the two, probably H50 will move to Sundays, a new show will air Sundays at 10 CSI may move to Fri at 9 and new dramas will air Wed at 9.

    Its not what TNT commits to its just more profitable to have a show go over 100 episodes if its doing adequately. Another season means more episodes that TNT can buy ton syndicate and more money CBS makes.

    CBS will put up with another season of low rated H50 and Blue Bloods just for the fact that they will make more money off episodes in the long run.

    Its why CBS picked up 2 seasons (35 episosdes) of Medium from 2009-2011 from NBC and why CBS renewed CSI NY in May 2011 over Criminal Minds Suspect Behavior to add 2 seasons (35 episodes) to that show’s roster.

  • tv#1

    I still love 2.5 Men. I hope they do another season. I’ve been enjoying The Crazy Ones, so I hope it sticks around too.

  • Rob R

    Readers of the website have been clamoring for the cancellation of “The Good Wife” since early 2011, I think. During that time, some 50 more episodes have been filmed…….with 19 more contracted to air, including Episode #100 to air by the end of 2013. That said, we are clearly closer to the end of the series than to the beginning. CBS will give this a classy send-off and undoubtedly negotiate a nice exit for the producers and for Julianna (perhaps a new series deal?). I have always believed that CBS monetizes this show for more than the 18-49 demo alone predicts.

  • Dan

    @HV – Those are pretty accurate guesses although I would combine your Likely renewed and very likely renewed into one category of Renewed only because I cant imagine any of the shows in the likely renewed not coming back. All shows in boith categories wil return next season.

    Hostages is a certain cancellation as is Mentalist and Good Wife but Crazy Ones along with Mom and Millers are for now squarely on the bubble. The comedy trio will get back orders of some kind maybe 16-22 episodes. Not sure which will get what though.

    Two and a Half Men is on the bubble too only because its very old and expensive but my guess is that CBS will shell out one final season for the series and get it for 12 seasons. (has a live comedy ever gone for 12 seasons?) Another reason for CBS renewing Two and a Half Men is that they will want a veteran besides Big Bang Theory, 2 Broke Girls, and Mike & Molly.

    My guess is that if CBS renews those four, 2 will stay on Mondays (2 Broke Girls and Mike & Molly) 2 will stay on Thursdays (Big Bang, Two and a Half Men), and if they renew 2 comedies from this season 1 will go on Mondays and 1 will go on Thursdays leaving them 2 slots for new comedies. I think that will be the most efficient way to do things.

  • HV

    @Dan
    I wouldn’t be too shocked if any of H50, BB, or Elementary were to tank and not return, and that is why they, and the others with them, to a lesser extent, are in that category and not the other.

  • SHERI

    @ Randy
    ‘I hope Grimm does well because that is a show I love. I am interested in how H50 is surviving but couldn’t care less about it as a show; just fascinated how it has had so many breaks’
    ____________________________________________________________________

    YOU COULD CARE LESS ABOUT 5-0 ????

    ALL YOU DO EVERY DAY ON THIS SITE IS BASH IT !!!

    WHY SO MUCH HATRED FOR A TV SHOW RANDY ????

    It hasn’t gotten any ‘breaks’ – it is a GREAT show and it’s doing wonderful on Friday nights

    You’re constant BS is truly pathetic !!

  • Randy

    Again, makes sense Dan. Thanks for an intelligent outlook on the situation!

  • Randy

    Sheri, your constant kissing up to all things H50 is frankly BORING and not based in any kind of reality. I am not interested in “cheerleaders” who don’t talk facts or reality. Your fave show survives because CBS wants the money and I suspect TNT has no choice but to get to 100 episodes.

    The show is weak and has never won an award except for their stunts.

    I am interested in the facts, as Dan as brought up here. I am not interested in obsessed fans who want their show to be the best.

    If all you are going to do is obsess illogically over your precious show, and not discuss it reasonably, then please stop responding to my posts.
    I am not interested in fangirl nonsense. Go away.

  • SHERI

    @ RANDY

    I have just as much right to post MY OPINIONS as you do yours.

    WISHING a show to fail as you do is pathetic.

    5-0 was the 2nd highest rated show in demo AND viewership last Friday – it is far from weak……….

    You love Grimm – I’ve heard it’s finale drew a 1.6 last year – now THAT I weak. The difference between us is that I do NOT hope Grimm fails

    I RESPECT other’s opinions and realize that people have different tastes – you on the other hand show no respect to others

  • Drew

    I like The Good Wife. It’s a clever, well written show but I think it has run it’s course. Sunday is a horrible night for DVR’s users. Because of NFL football you have to record the entire night if you want to watch Sixty Minutes and The Good Wife on a delayed basis. If you are on the West Coast this is not a problem. I like watch NBC Sunday Night Football and watch Sixty Minutes and The Good Wife at my leisure. I’m hoping in future CBS has no shows on Sunday Night I’m interested in except Sixty Minutes.

  • Ultima

    @Gregg
    cling to their former glory for as long as possible by keeping old shows around (like NBC did in the early 2000s) or be bold, cancel all the deadwood, and charge ahead with a lot of new shows.

    Cancellations should include The Mentalist (yes, Patrick Jane IS Red John), The Good Wife, Blue Bloods, and Hostages

    So you’re arguing that CBS should cling to their former glory by keeping old shows around? I’m confused, usually comments like yours actually suggest the bold moves CBS should take.

    Cancelling The Mentalist, The Good Wife, Hostages and Blue Bloods is basically what CBS would do if Intelligence hits and they don’t change the number of dramas they air…

  • Ultima

    @Brandy
    Will Big Bang Theory and 2 Broke Girls get announced “final seasons”when the time comes?

    I don’t know why people get obsessed with announced final seasons. Chances are, like most shows, neither one will enter its final season with its fate known (unless TBBT reaches a point where the cast says enough).

    On the other hand, while CBS likes to let its shows just fade away, the monster numbers The Big Bang Theory gets will likely lead to a traditional two-hour finale send-off.

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