CBS: 'The Good Wife' Or 'The Mentalist' Will Be Canceled, Maybe Both Of Them

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 15th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 13, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.57
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.59
Hostages :oops: 0.60
Blue Bloods (F) :) :) :) :) 0.60
Hawaii Five-0 (F) :) :) :) :) 0.61
We Are Men* canceled 0.74
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.80
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.80
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.85
Mom :| :| :| 0.91
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Two and a Half Men :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
The Crazy Ones :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.23
The Millers :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.26
How I Met Your Mother final season 1.31
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.32
The Big Bang Theory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.19

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Once CBS dramas get moved to Sunday or Friday nights, they're just biding time piling up episodes for the syndication deals that make CBS piles of cash (and motivate other studios to cut their license fees to keep their shows on the air, like The Mentalist). As such, the future of all those shows is likely determined by syndication economics that are hidden to us.

Still, dramas have to go to make room on the schedule for next Fall. While the Bubble Watch thinks that Hawaii Five-0 is in danger, the Cancellation Bear disagrees. The bear thinks the Sunday dramas, The Good Wife or The Mentalist, are on much shakier ground. One of those two will certainly be canceled, maybe both of them.

Unlike the typically easy to anticipate CBS season to season moves, next season raises many questions that make predicting how many dramas get canceled a bit trickier than usual.

  • Does CBS keep Undercover Boss in the Fall? (yes, no change to drama hours; no, add one drama hour)
  • Does CBS keep the same number of sitcom hours? (yes, no change to drama hours; no, reduce sitcoms by 1 hr = add one drama hour)
  • Does Intelligence succeed, and CBS pair it with another short run serial? (yes, no change to procedural drama hours; no, add one procedural drama hour).
  • How many new dramas do they premiere in the Fall? (three has been typical in recent years, but this season saw only one)

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Ultima

    Also, even SEINFELD didn’t get an announced final season! ;)

  • Randy

    Gee, Sheri, when I said:

    I have just as much right to post MY OPINIONS as you do yours.

    You BLEW UP at me. Karma, baby. And right after you said “I RESPECT other’s opinions” but you see, you don’t. Only if they SUPPORT your show do YOU respect their opinions. You are two faced and have tunnel vision with H50.
    Like I said. I am not interested in people who post with the idea that their show is perfect and what we say that they don’t like makes us MEAN and HATERS.
    I respect someone like Dan. He comes up with excellent points that I can respect because they are based on facts and common sense.

    I don’t care if H50 survives or doesn’t survive. My life doesn’t revolve around a show.
    It is a badly written show and I am curious why it still continues and Dan had a great hypothesis why it does survive.

    So I will see if he is correct or not. But I stand by the fact that the show is badly written but like Dan says, it needs 100 episode and then CBS will probably let it die the death it deserves.

    Now go fangirl someplace else with your other fangirl friends and stop harassing me. Post intelligently or don’t tag me again.

  • Randy

    Sheri, see my above post. Your H50 obsessive love is BORING me. Stop tagging me with your fangirl nonsense please. You have nothing intelligent to bring to the discussion IMO. So STOP TAGGING ME. Thank you.

  • Dan

    The Big Bang Theory wil;l reach a point where the cast calls it quits and it will get an announced final season likely because it was highly rated during its run.

    I believe the same for CSI, NCIS, and Two and a Half Men (maybe next season)

    I would be shocked if CBS cancelled Elementary after 2 full seasons which they wont do.

    The only 2 series CBS cancelled after 2 full seasons was Close to Home and Shark. In Close to Home’s case it was barely renewed the year before and CBS had sooo many successful dramas. Shark was a victim of the writers strike and CBS’s too many dramas. This year a couple of dramas are expendable.

    CSI, NCIS, Criminal Minds, NCIS LA, Hawaii 5-0, Blue Bloods, Person of Interest and Elementary will all return next season. I can’t see any scenario where any of these get cancelled in May.

    The Big Bang Theory, 2 Broke Girls and Mike & Molly are definite returners for comedies and Two and a Half Men will probably get a full final season.

    I don’t expect Intelligence or Reckless to succeed but if one does then my guess is CBS holds back Undercover Boss to accommodate it.

  • Steve

    @Ultima: On the other hand, while CBS likes to let its shows just fade away, the monster numbers The Big Bang Theory gets will likely lead to a traditional two-hour finale send-off.

    I am inclined to agree. It may pull a Cheers and try to wind down in the 10th or 11th season while it’s still doing good, and it will get a massive finale like Cheers, Seinfeld or Friends. But it will also signal the end of an era.

    Look at the ratings for other comedies. The day of the 20 million viewer sitcom is limited. Two and a Half Men, the last sitcom to reach that feat is sliding down the chute quickly and the stars are raking in tens of millions of dollars. How many eight-digit comedies do we have anymore? It will probably go back to five when the clocks turn back but the decline in viewership speaks volumes. Right now we only have three. Modern Family, The Millers and The Big Bang Theory. Of those, the only reason The Millers has it is because of its sweet time slot.

    I would start thinking seriously about yanking 2aHM just because of costs and sliding ratings and begging for an 8th and 9th season of TBBT.

    If I had to put odds, here’s what I’d say: Percentages are the likelihood I think the show will be picked up.

    VERY LIKELY CANCELED
    Hostages (2%)

    LIKELY CANCELED
    The Good Wife (12%)
    The Mentalist (20%)

    IN THE MIDDLE
    Mom (38%)
    Hawaii Five-0 (42%)
    Two and a Half Men (50%)
    Blue Bloods (58%)

    LIKELY RENEWED
    CSI: Crime Scene Investigation (62%)
    Elementary (62%)
    Person of Interest (64%)
    The Crazy Ones (71%)
    The Millers (75%)

    VERY LIKELY RENEWED
    2 Broke Girls (81%)
    Criminal Minds (96%)
    NCIS (100%)
    NCIS: Los Angeles (100%)
    The Big Bang Theory (100%)

  • Fanny

    Now that POI has a syndication deal is there a risk that it could be cancelled if the ratings continue to drop? I know a 3rd season automatically gets you a 4th on CBS but presumably that doesn’t apply if you don’t need to get to 88 episodes to get syndicated anymore?

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “Now that POI has a syndication deal is there a risk that it could be cancelled if the ratings continue to drop? I know a 3rd season automatically gets you a 4th on CBS but presumably that doesn’t apply if you don’t need to get to 88 episodes to get syndicated anymore?”

    No chance POI gets canceled this season. None.

  • Prup (aka Jim Benton)

    HOSTAGES gone, of course. MENTALIST is gone, the story lines are wrapping up and Jane’s schticks and tics are getting a little old. Wish I could pick H50 or BB for 3rd, but I think — unless the ‘new boss’ shakes things up (I don’t read advance news so I don’t know who it is) — I’m going to call a darl horse, but CEIMINAL MINDS has been running out of steam, they opened the year with a two=part “Spock’s Brain”evel episode, and the Doctor of Inanity continues to take up space. It was great at times, but it has run its course.

  • Michael1

    The saddest part about “Hostages” is that Toni Collette passed on reviving her role in “About a Boy” to be in this.

  • Shawn

    I don’t agree. I think there’s more to renewals than just black and white ratings. It plays the biggest key, sure, but we all know there are more factors than that.

    And you’re bound to be correct if you throw out all of the lower rated shows. I could sit here and say one of “CSI, Mentalist or Good Wife” to be axed and if one of them is, then boom, I’m right ;) Based on nothing but me just saying that.

  • Shawn

    And it’s really time to put Two and a Half Men down.

    CBS is starting to drag down because they refuse to get rid of certain shows, much like ABC coasted for a few years and now they’re struggling again, more so than I think is admitted.

  • bluejays

    I think CBS big problem is its script writing in recent years, on its procedurals. Watching old seasons of any of the CSI’s and it is pure tv gold compared to the idiocy that is served up now with their procedurals, getting bogged down into too complicated plotlines that turn off many even dedicated fans (can think of two shows this has happened on – HFO and The Mentalist – and it seems to be happening on POI, too if their fan boards are anything to go by).

    The Mentalist could have been a huge hit for CBS but a lack of steady scheduling and some bad writing have seen it go from potential huge new hit to down and out. I see the same fate looming for POI too. HFO was killed by bad writing (and again bad scheduling decisions).

    Procedurals have of course always followed this fate – slowly becoming ever more convoluted and ridiculous (heck look at CSI Miami in latter years!!) but it used to take time. You’d often get many good seasons before a show began to descend into scriptwriter idiocy. These days a procedural is often tied up in knots with its longer plot arcs by season two! It puts fans off.

    They need to tell the scriptwriters to go back and look at season one to five Law and Orders, or SVU, or early years CSI, or even old classics like Rockford Files etc – to see how to do gripping cases of the week with a few *minor* longer plot arches.

    Honestly. I don’t believe procedurals are dead but I think in recent years a whole slew of them have taken on such convoluted back stories they’ve killed their own shows.

  • Guest

    TM is revealing RED JOHN IN NOVEMBER and then trying to reboot it. I do think it is in danger because of ratings and the fact that CBS doesn’t promote it or tell viewers that the RED JOHN story is coming to the end very soon. People who are sick of RJ don’t even know that the storyline ends in 2013. I wish CBS would let people know about the show and how it is changing. It might spark a new interest in it. I am just happy that we will see Jane “after RJ” and maybe get some closer.

  • rehabber

    I tried both The Crazy Ones and The Millers, but have deleted both from my Hopper. The only funny? shows I watch now are TBBT & Community.

  • bluejays

    @Randy and Sherri.

    There’s a middle ground between both your views.

    HFO didn’t get any ‘breaks’ as you say Randy. It aired in a year when the anchor of the night went off air suddenly and with pretty bad consequences for the line up. And it still managed to pull good numbers. The following year it was the top ten pm drama on all network tv. So at this point CBS have to have been *very* happy with HFO. it did well in diffucult circs.

    Bring on year three and it tanked. It dropped very badly. However…its numbers weren’t that much worse than the other ten pm shows. And, as we’ve seen from this year, shows like POI and CSI are only pulling 1.9’s and 2’s at ten – hardly even decent. But HFO still got moved against all the other poorly performing ten shows. Why?

    I believe because CBS could see what a hot mess it had become. Sorry Sheri, but it has. The writing was awful during much of season two and three. The fans were not happy, a show with a lot of hype in ‘fandom’ died a death there very quickly. CBS have access to detailed figures we don’t. They also will get regular audience feedback and I would guess they saw the show lost a lot of its young audience, nearly all of its buzz, and wasn’t likely to recover easily. So they moved it.

    Its numbers are actually good for a Friday and unless it tanks when Grimm starts (a possibility) I can see it staying around for another year or so. But it could have been a good solid hit for CBS, if the first season hype around it (it was pretty big in fandom land) could have been sustained. But very bad writing and convoluted plot arcs killed it.

    As I’ve said in my post above, I see the same fate for other procedurals. Writers need to go back to shows from the seventies and eighties and study what worked. Shows that try to straddle the divide between being a procedural and being serliazed don’t seem to be doing it very well.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I don’t agree. I think there’s more to renewals than just black and white ratings. It plays the biggest key, sure, but we all know there are more factors than that.”

    Relative Live+SD adults 18-49 ratings + syndication situation gets us to 90-95% correct predictions. More than that’s not worth the effort. Feel free to add whatever other factors you’d like to your prediction process.

    “And you’re bound to be correct if you throw out all of the lower rated shows. I could sit here and say one of “CSI, Mentalist or Good Wife” to be axed and if one of them is, then boom, I’m right Based on nothing but me just saying that.”

    I’ve got to write ~31 CBS related headlines a season just to get people to click and load the page, when the predictions often barely change from week to week. In your case…score!

  • omabin

    I agree with this 100%.

    I think the pecking order is the following:
    1. The Mentalist – It’s possible, but very hard to come up with a scenario in which it stays another year
    2. The Good Wife – It is likely a goner, even though there is a somehow medium chance that CBS only lets go of one veteran
    3. Hawaii Five-0 – It is very unlikely that CBS cuts three veterans like that, although still has some degree of possibility, particularly as I doubt a show like Elementary would pull the mid 1s H50 is pulling on Fridays
    4. Blue Bloods – the safest of them all. While not impossible, it is extremely unlikely that CBS cuts all 4 dramas.

    The comedies are trickier, I think everything is a bubble show at this point. The Millers is doing ok, but it is very hard to judge with so a lead-in differential. 2 Broke Girls is safe. Mom, The Crazy Ones and Two and a Half Men are bubble shows, with Mum being the unsafest of all three as it stands.

  • psychic

    The Good Wife should have ended years ago. Maybe Netflix can pick it up or something. The Mentalist is still going strong. It’s a flawless show. I find nothing wrong with it.

  • sally

    I watch both Hawaii 50 and Blue Bloods on Friday night,i miss CSI NY. I cant stand realty shows like Undercover Boss

  • Rachel

    The Mentalist is dead.

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