CBS: 'The Good Wife' Or 'The Mentalist' Will Be Canceled, Maybe Both Of Them

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 15th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 13, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.57
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.59
Hostages :oops: 0.60
Blue Bloods (F) :) :) :) :) 0.60
Hawaii Five-0 (F) :) :) :) :) 0.61
We Are Men* canceled 0.74
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.80
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.80
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.85
Mom :| :| :| 0.91
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Two and a Half Men :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
The Crazy Ones :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.23
The Millers :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.26
How I Met Your Mother final season 1.31
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.32
The Big Bang Theory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.19

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Once CBS dramas get moved to Sunday or Friday nights, they're just biding time piling up episodes for the syndication deals that make CBS piles of cash (and motivate other studios to cut their license fees to keep their shows on the air, like The Mentalist). As such, the future of all those shows is likely determined by syndication economics that are hidden to us.

Still, dramas have to go to make room on the schedule for next Fall. While the Bubble Watch thinks that Hawaii Five-0 is in danger, the Cancellation Bear disagrees. The bear thinks the Sunday dramas, The Good Wife or The Mentalist, are on much shakier ground. One of those two will certainly be canceled, maybe both of them.

Unlike the typically easy to anticipate CBS season to season moves, next season raises many questions that make predicting how many dramas get canceled a bit trickier than usual.

  • Does CBS keep Undercover Boss in the Fall? (yes, no change to drama hours; no, add one drama hour)
  • Does CBS keep the same number of sitcom hours? (yes, no change to drama hours; no, reduce sitcoms by 1 hr = add one drama hour)
  • Does Intelligence succeed, and CBS pair it with another short run serial? (yes, no change to procedural drama hours; no, add one procedural drama hour).
  • How many new dramas do they premiere in the Fall? (three has been typical in recent years, but this season saw only one)

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Randy

    Adam,
    Remember, it isn’t the number of viewers that counts; it is the demo 18-49. Number of viewers is irrelevant to all shows. It isn’t the networks that decide that. It is what the advertisers are willing to pay for. They don’t want 1o million folks older than 50. They would rather have 5 million viewers all in the preferred demo.

    The networks I am sure WISH that the number of viewers meant something and they always put out press releases bragging about the number of viewers and bragging about the DVR numbers KNOWING that those things mean nothing for the show as far as revenue.

  • Katherine

    The Mentalist should get canceled, is about damn time. I really doubt The Good Wife will get canceled, it has decent ratings and it is on syndication

  • Gia

    Love, love, love The Mentalist, but I’m not going to kid myself. I think it’ll be both.

  • Feedback

    I’m sorry, but how is Undercover Boss a drama hour??? That’s a reality show!

  • miss may

    The Good Wife is a good show. So hard to find original scripted drama. Mentalist is done for.

  • Randy

    Katherine,
    The Mentalist is also in syndication. Not sure if you knew that or not.

  • thesnowleopard

    ROTFL! Bless yer snark, Bill. You actually went ahead and made that a headline.

  • Bradley

    Move Undercover Boss to Sundays next fall with Amazing Race and The Good Wife! For CBS, Dunday is more of a dead zone for scripted shows than Friday because of the ridiculous time slot over run.

  • Guest

    What about Elementary? The ratings are dropping for that show (seem like week after week) and it is on a better night and time then TGW and TM.

  • Pat

    I stopped watching The Mentalist because of too much Red John. Once they solve that case, I hope they get back to what made the show interesting in the first place: Patrick Jane using his bag of tricks to solve crimes. And, CBS should have stuck with Vegas.

  • ErwanFromFrance

    My predictions for CBS :

    COMEDIES (5 renewed, 2 canceled) :

    2 Broke Girls : renewed
    Mom : canceled
    Mike And Molly : renewed
    Big Bang Theory : renewed
    The Millers : renewed
    Crazy Ones : renewed
    2,5 Men : canceled

    DRAMAS (3 canceled, 2 Toss-up, 6 renewed):

    Hostages : canceled
    NCIS : renewed
    NCIS : LA : renewed
    Person Of Interest : renewed
    Criminal Minds : renewed
    CSI : canceled
    Elementary : canceled
    Hawai 5-0 : renewed
    Blue Bloods : renewed
    The Good Wife : Toss-Up with the Mentalist
    The Mentalist : Toss-up with The Good Wife

  • ErwanFromFrance

    @Katherine do you think a 1.2 is “a decent rating” ? No, I don’t think so, The Good Wife went too low to be renewed. I really do think it will be canceled but it should.

  • bluejays

    Bill – question for ya. If Elementary keeps at these sorts of numbers for another few weeks – do you see it being in any real danger? Or do you think CBS will keep it no matter what, as it is in season two now?

  • phil

    Funny Two Broke Girls are exactly the reason for arguing you have to give an audience time to find them and get used to them. Last season all the talk was oh, they’re going to be canceled and now you have them certain to be renewed. THINK executives… give shows time to get an audience…

  • Donnie

    Mentalist only needs a great ending, not a cancellation.

  • Jan

    This season of the Mentalist is called “The Final Chapter”. I think that’s a pretty clear message that they are having this be the final season. I love the show, I’d continue to watch it, but it sounds like they are ending it.

  • Anonymous

    CBS should cancel Hawaii Five O. I hate the electronic gadgets and the way Steve McGarrett is only a detective now and a Senior Warrant Officer in the Navy compare to the old show where he is a Captain in on the police force and a Commander in the Navy.

    Who does Steve McGarrett reporting to: I don’t see who McGarrett reports to in the new show but on the old show it to the governor. Also, how does Steve McGarrett get the cases on the new show? Unknown.

    Plus, the current Hawaii Five O is not written well compare to that of the original show which is show on MeTV Network daily basis.

  • Steve

    @phil

    Do you know why 2BG is going to be renewed? Its ratings aren’t that good, although this week the R/C index will transpose them with Two and a Half Men.

    2 Broke Girls is in its third season. CBS can make a lot of money syndicating the program so they’ll nurse it along even if its not performing so well.

    Watch for Two and a Half Men to fall to 6th out of 7 in the coming weeks. It may even do worse than Mike & Molly when it returns, so I’d start revising those 5 faces downward a little bit.

  • omabin

    I actually don’t think a The Amazing Race/Survivor/Undercover Boss is a bad idea for Sundays. Too bad CBS would never let go of 60 Minutes to let the lineup take advantage of the sports lead-ins. Anyway the problem of this sunday reality lineup happening is that you would need to move an established show to friday to replace underover boss and I don’t know what should that be. CSI is still their second strongest 10pm show and I think the gap will only get bigger. Besides, if they were to move Survivor, they wouldn’t move CSI at the same time as it would mess with Wednesdays too much

  • Janice

    I really don’t think CBS is going to premiere more than two new dramas next year. It only had one this season and it bombed. Plus how long has it been since CBS actually had a drama hit? probably POI.
    So we just need another CBS drama to fail in order to save one of TM or TGW. Hostages replacement (is there one?)?. Elementary? POI is too much of a stretch (it’s still above 2.0 I believe and on track for syndacation)

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