CBS: 'The Good Wife' Or 'The Mentalist' Will Be Canceled, Maybe Both Of Them

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

October 15th, 2013

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 13, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.57
The Mentalist :| :| :| 0.59
Hostages :oops: 0.60
Blue Bloods (F) :) :) :) :) 0.60
Hawaii Five-0 (F) :) :) :) :) 0.61
We Are Men* canceled 0.74
CSI :) :) :) :) 0.80
Elementary :) :) :) :) 0.80
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.85
Mom :| :| :| 0.91
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.00
Two and a Half Men :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.11
The Crazy Ones :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.23
The Millers :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.26
How I Met Your Mother final season 1.31
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.32
The Big Bang Theory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.19

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Once CBS dramas get moved to Sunday or Friday nights, they're just biding time piling up episodes for the syndication deals that make CBS piles of cash (and motivate other studios to cut their license fees to keep their shows on the air, like The Mentalist). As such, the future of all those shows is likely determined by syndication economics that are hidden to us.

Still, dramas have to go to make room on the schedule for next Fall. While the Bubble Watch thinks that Hawaii Five-0 is in danger, the Cancellation Bear disagrees. The bear thinks the Sunday dramas, The Good Wife or The Mentalist, are on much shakier ground. One of those two will certainly be canceled, maybe both of them.

Unlike the typically easy to anticipate CBS season to season moves, next season raises many questions that make predicting how many dramas get canceled a bit trickier than usual.

  • Does CBS keep Undercover Boss in the Fall? (yes, no change to drama hours; no, add one drama hour)
  • Does CBS keep the same number of sitcom hours? (yes, no change to drama hours; no, reduce sitcoms by 1 hr = add one drama hour)
  • Does Intelligence succeed, and CBS pair it with another short run serial? (yes, no change to procedural drama hours; no, add one procedural drama hour).
  • How many new dramas do they premiere in the Fall? (three has been typical in recent years, but this season saw only one)

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • RandomCommentor

    Hard to say. They are trying to reboot the Mentalist mid-season and I think, barring ratings obviously, a lot of it depends on how well that works creatively for them (P.S. it’s called “Red John: The Final Chapter”, not just The Final Chapter – most sites are already talking about future seasons from interviews).

    The bigger question is whether they abandon the extra comedy hour they did this season – it hasn’t gone that well so far…

    Then there’s Elementary which is sinking a bit and needs to stay steady since it is a second season show. If that sinks lower and Intelligence flops hard, Bill may end up being “wrong”, though it’s a long shot.

  • Paul

    The Good Wife wasn’t canceled all of those years because of Emmy nominations. What other drama on major Networks gets nominated for the Emmy’s anymore? While it doesn’t get nominated for Best Drama anymore it does get acting nods, and that is enough to draw bigger names to take chances on CBS. (i.e. Vince Gilligan is going to do a show for CBS next year, and I think the Good Wife is a big reason. CBS stuck with a show that wasn’t a procedural and had good writing behind it.)

    For that reason alone, I would say that The Good Wife will get a 13 episode last season next year; possibly put on during the summer. The Mentalist will be canceled. Hostages will be canceled. I’m thinking whatever replaces Hostages (The Josh Holloway show) will probably be canceled.

  • PD

    I hope they keep The Mentalist AND The Good Wife. I like them both. I agree that it is looking like The Mentalist is closing but I hope not. There are too many other avenues that The Mentalist can go for even if Red John is found. It needs a chance. Ditto for the Good Wife!!

  • Lindsey

    Ah, this brings back memories of Cold Case versus Without a Trace.

  • CBSviewer

    @ ErwanFromFrance

    CSI : canceled

    CBS has the low rated The Good Wife, The Mentalist, Hostages, Elementary and you think they will cancel their #2 10PM Drama ?
    :roll:

  • Pat

    My CBS Schedule Prediction for 2014:
    Sunday
    7:00 – 60 Minutes
    8:00 – The Amazing Race
    9:00 – Undercover Boss
    10:00 – CSI
    Monday
    8:00 – Mike and Molly
    8:30 – 2 Broke Girls
    9:00 – The Crazy Ones
    9:30 – New Comedy
    10:00 – New Drama
    Tuesday
    8:00 – NCIS
    9:00 – NCIS: Los Angeles
    10:00 – Person of Interest
    Wednesday
    8:00 – Survivor
    9:00 – Criminal Minds
    10:00 – New Drama
    Thursday
    8:00 – The Big Bang Theory
    8:30 – New Comedy
    9:00 – The Millers
    9:30 – New Comedy
    10:00 – Elementary
    Friday
    8:00 – Two and a Half Men (Final Season)
    8:30 – Mom – if it doesn’t get cancelled
    9:00 – Hawaii Five-0
    10:00 – Blue Bloods

    Thoughts?

  • F

    No that’s not fair. The mentalist can’t be cancelled!! I mean common it’s the last season, i think the good wife should be cancelled not TM :)

  • Ultima

    @Paul
    The Good Wife wasn’t canceled all of those years because of Emmy nominations.

    Why do people go on and on with this nonsense? :roll:

    Season one – good ratings (2.7); was a likely renewal, the only thing in question was CBS’ dedication to its Friday lineup, turns out it was expendable (personally, I don’t think a freshman show is in danger from a 5th season Friday drama with 40% lower ratings that isn’t owned by the network, but some people disagree)

    Season two – still decent ratings (2.2); was on the bubble, but it wasn’t the competition that was an issue (Defenders was dead, CM:SB had better numbers, but I think a second season show always wins over the lead-in dependent freshman); instead it was a lack of space – CBS chose to hold Undercover Boss for midseason and gave The Good Wife its timeslot (was that due to TGW’s critical acclaim or the sinking ratings of UB and CBS’ desire to keep the syndication train rolling?)

    Season three – good ratings (2.0), only a 9% year-to-year drop despite airing on a different night; easy renewal due to syndication

    Season four – bad ratings (1.7); still, it had the syndication deal and is probably worth more to CBS than The Mentalist, so there was a buffer had CBS needed another drama slot this fall

    I just don’t get it. There’s literally only one season in which Emmy consideration might have helped The Good Wife and you can easily make an argument for renewal without it. How has this nonsense continued on for years now?! :roll:

  • Ultima

    Oh, forgot to add that during the second season, if CBS had decided to leave Undercover Boss on the schedule, it’s entirely possible that the freshman Blue Bloods might have been canceled instead of The Good Wife.

    Although I’m sure there’s some people who just don’t care and need to convince themselves that it was Emmys that got The Good Wife renewed and not decent relative ratings and syndication. That way they can convince themselves that their low rated show can still pull out a magical renewal if only it gets an Emmy nomination! :roll:

  • Ultima

    @Pat
    Friday
    8:00 – Two and a Half Men (Final Season)

    That’s only going to happen if the Two Men want to work for free! ;)

  • Ultima

    @Random Commenter
    The bigger question is whether they abandon the extra comedy hour they did this season – it hasn’t gone that well so far…

    Ratings for new comedies, week of 14 October

    The Millers – CBS – 3.2
    The Crazy Ones – CBS 2.4

    Super Fun Night – ABC – 2.1
    Mom – CBS – 2.0
    Back in the Game – ABC – 1.9
    The Goldbergs – ABC – 1.6
    Dads – FOX – 1.5
    Brooklyn Nine-Nine – FOX 1.5
    Trophy Wife – ABC – 1.3
    The Michael J Fox Show – NBC – 1.2
    Sean Saves the World – NBC – 1.1
    Welcome to the Family – NBC – 0.9 (canceled)
    We Are Men – CBS – (already cancelled)

    Things aren’t going well at ABC, FOX and NBC. CBS is doing just fine.

  • Red

    Keep the Mentalist and let the Good Wife go.

  • Schoul

    The Good Wife has run the gammit it is time to close it out.

  • evanzmom

    Red John is hurting the Mentalist. He should have died after Season 1. Hostages wouldn’t make it even if it were a different time slot. You can’t drag out trying to kill the president for a whole season. I would have taped it on my DVR if was just because he was a “shot the hostage” type FBI agent. Shocked CSI is still on. I left before Catherine did.

  • Andrea

    I like both shows, but I think it’s probably time to wrap “The Mentalist.” I’d like to see them end the Red John storyline and maybe give viewers a hint of what Patrick Jane’s life going forward will look like without the serial killer casting a long shadow. They should have lots of time to write a good ending.

    “The Good Wife” still manages to surprise me, but it seems to get low ratings. It would probably help if they didn’t schedule it after football. No one ever knows when it’s on.

  • Ultima

    @Andrea
    It would probably help if they didn’t schedule it after football. No one ever knows when it’s on.

    It’s not hard to figure out when it’s on if you’re watching live (check CBS’ twitter or the on-screen alerts) and it’s not hard to DVR it (extend the recording for 30 minutes if there is football leading into primetime in your local market).

    If someone can’t spend the few extra seconds required to watch the show, then chances are they were never going to watch it anyways. (The fact that the show typically gets higher ratings on nights with delayed starts due to football seems to support this.)

  • Steve

    @Ultima:

    I’m going to show your list to prove a point:

    The Millers – CBS – 3.2 (1st)
    The Crazy Ones – CBS 2.4 (2nd)
    Super Fun Night – ABC – 2.1 (3rd)
    Mom – CBS – 2.0 (4th)
    Back in the Game – ABC – 1.9 (5th)
    The Goldbergs – ABC – 1.6 (6th)
    Dads – FOX – 1.5 (7th)
    Brooklyn Nine-Nine – FOX 1.5 (8th)
    Trophy Wife – ABC – 1.3 (9th)
    The Michael J Fox Show – NBC – 1.2 (10th)
    Sean Saves the World – NBC – 1.1 (11th)
    Welcome to the Family – NBC – 0.9 (canceled)
    We Are Men – CBS – (already cancelled)

    Things aren’t going well at ABC, FOX and NBC. CBS is doing just fine.

    I’d argue ABC is doing okay if they’d purge Trophy Wife. The other three are still in the top half of the pack. Fox and NBC, on the other hand, are dropping big turds.

    We Are Men would have finished in the middle of the pack, probably right below the Goldbergs had it continued. However, it was also dragging down the other comedies, I noticed a boost for 2BG after the pull. It is now way ahead of Two and a Half Men.

  • Lily

    The Good Wife should go. At this point, it’s just ridiculous. They have killed whatever was fun and interesting with the show years ago and all that’s left is an empty shell of a vehicle for Julianna Margulies and C-listers guests.

  • Lindsey

    @Ultima – We get the point. You REALLY love The Good Wife.

  • J Howard Walker

    I Love The Mentalist. I would love to see the show go on after Red John is dispatched, but I can also sadly see the show ending this year after the Red John reveal. For me, it would be great to see Jane and Lisbon together, and if Van Pelt and Rigsby are leaving, I would love to see a new partner or foil that is a good match for Cho. With no Red John sub-plot, I would love to see the show go back albeit in a new way to the earlier years where the characters, especially Jane, are not consumed in the hunt for Red John.

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