NBC: 'Ironside' Is Certain To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

October 15th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 13, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Welcome To The Family :oops: (canceled 10/18) 0.53
Sean Saves The World :oops: 0.67
Ironside :oops: (canceled 10/18) 0.67
Parks & Recreation :| :| :| 0.69
Parenthood :| :| :| 0.80
Revolution :| :| :| 0.91
The Michael J. Fox Show :| :| :| 0.94
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.37
The Blacklist :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.89
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

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The Cancellation Bear would like to thank NBC for not making any announcements about Ironside in the past week. That gave him time to put the show in this week's headline.

Now, if they can hold off any announcements about Sean Saves The World for another week, the bear will be even more thankful.

The bear's moved The Michael J Fox Show down to a "toss up", as was Parks & Recreation. They might stay that way until the bear sees the other sitcoms still to come this season for NBC.

The bear's biding his time making a call on Revolution, at current relative ratings levels it could go either way, particularly considering the relative success of NBC dramas vs. their total sitcom failure. Bubble Watch likes to make calls early (and has only one headline to create each week). The cancellation bear knows that this prediction race is a marathon, not a sprint, and he's got 30 more weeks (and 150 headlines, god help the bear) to go!

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Feedback

    You’re always making a big fuss about the headlines. Why not just call it “NBC Renewal/Cancel Index Week 4″?

  • KJ Styles

    There is absolutely no chance of MJF being cancelled. It’s their highest rated comedy and will likely remain as such all season long. While NBC’s comedy ratings suck, they won’t cancel all of them so MJF will get renewed by default.

  • James

    I gotta say, Revolution is looking better and better.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “You’re always making a big fuss about the headlines. Why not just call it “NBC Renewal/Cancel Index Week 4??”

    Because I have a clue how headlines bring traffic to the site.

  • AllOfHerTw!st

    Go Community! :-) ;-)

  • RJ

    “If NBC was smart they would spin off on there comedies…Why not bring a spinoff from Cheers, or Cosby show.”

    As bad as NBC’s comedy situation is, the trick is to try to develop new comedies people want to watch rather than spinning off shows that ended two decades ago and that many people in the 18-49 demographic either won’t remember or won’t care about. NBC has had virtually no success remaking old TV shows (Ironside, Knight Rider, etc.) so I doubt spinning off old ones would help much, either.

  • RJ

    It does look like NBC is once again throwing in the towel on Thursday for at least the immediate term. There is no other explanation for leaving a show on the schedule that got a 0.8 last week. Presumably Community will replace WTTF at some point, but there’s been no announcement yet. They may be giving SSTW and MJF some room to stabilize and hopefully start to grow a little bit, but neither show is good enough for any kind of serious growth to occur.

  • Oliver

    @RJ
    They’re probably waiting to see how wk 3 of SStW does before deciding whether to just replace WTTF or to cut a full hour of comedy.

  • KJ Styles

    “If NBC was smart they would spin off on there comedies…Why not bring a spinoff from Cheers, or Cosby show.”

    Both those shows were spun off YEARS ago. Cheers’ spin off was Frazier, and Cosby Show’s spin off was A Different World.

  • Walker

    I think it’s finally time for NBC to dump the Thursday comedy block. Maybe they could split two hours over two nights, like Tues and Thurs, and move The Voice up an hour and an established show like Biggest Loser to Thursday at 8. Then again, the Tuesday 9pm hour didn’t, um, work so well last year.

  • Sean

    Nice to see that Revolution’s index number gets a little higher each week. If the pattern continues it might be in the ‘more likely to be renewed than canceled” category by next week or the week after.

  • Jazz

    Would be nice to see Blair Underwood on Blacklist. He’s such a good actor. Spader and Underwood could be win.

  • PJ

    My prdict for Ironside was 4 episodes after the preimere. We will see how long NBC’s patience is.

  • senor chang

    Come midseason…

    MONDAYS: These are working for NBC, keep them as is.
    TUESDAYS: Replace the 8PM hour on Tuesday with two new sitcoms–premiere both behind the Olympics and repeat them as much as possible. I don’t like the idea of putting new comedies at 9 behind the Voice: 1) as seen last year, launching any new comedies against the FOX/ABC block is a war of attrition and 2) it hurts Chicago Fire’s momentum, which at the moment is one of two shows doing strong numbers for NBC. It’s a high-risk low-reward move.

    Keep The Voice at 9PM and Chicago Fire at 10PM.

    WEDNESDAYS: Launch Chicago PD at 10PM behind SVU, since that seemed to work last year. There’s some logic to sliding Revolution there and putting something else in the 8PM hour, but it’s doing fine as is. Again, weighing risks against rewards; a new show cratering at 8 could weaken Wednesdays even further.

    THURSDAY: An absolute mess as is. The biggest problem is that any potential momentum the network can build on this night dies at 8PM, where TBBT steamrolls every show NBC puts there–for the sake of the rest of the night, the comedies at 8 need to be cut. Put The Biggest Loser there instead. It’ll fall, yes, but it’ll still do much healthier numbers than what’s there now. Parks/Michael J. Fox or Michael J. Fox/Parks at 9PM (depending on whether the risk of putting Fox opposite The Crazy Ones outweighs the benefits of a better lead-in or not). Though Parenthood has fallen quite a bit at 10PM, I’d still keep it there: better the devil NBC knows than the devil it doesn’t.

    FRIDAY: Dateline at 8PM, Grimm at 9PM, and The Night Shift at 10PM. (The writing on the wall suggests The Night Shift isn’t not a long-term player for NBC, anyway. Put it somewhere where it won’t cause any more trouble for the shows that are doing well.)

    SUNDAY: Dateline at 7PM is a given. I really, really don’t like the idea of another new reality show at 8PM given NBC’s track record there, but since there’s nowhere else to put American Dream Builders I suppose it has to go here. Same logic applies for Believe/Crisis: I suppose you could put one or the other behind the Voice, but they need to stand on their own first.

  • Chris J

    @senor chang

    I agree that’s a perfect schedule for NBC and I hope they implement that midseason!

  • Chris J

    @senor chang

    Also Believe is going to get SLAUGHTERED by Walking Dead. It’s not even going to be funny.

  • donnie

    SSTW is actually funny if nbc holds on i believe it could manage to do better

  • Chris J

    NBC is going to cancel Parenthood and Revolution this season.

    If Parks gets renewed it’ll be shipped off to Friday next season.

    NBC’s game plan next season:

    #1 Continue strengthening successful series

    #2 Move stable dramas and/or realities to unstable nights

    #3 Establish “Space Race” Reality show as the NEXT BIG HIT.

    As far as comedies they need to have 2 smaller blocs during the week. They need to stop getting these celebrity driven shows that are terrible, and invest in good comedies (ie The Office). If a show is good the talent in the show will become celebrities (see The Big Bang Theory).

    Taking a page from @senor chang’s excellent schedule above, next season NBC could do this:

    Sunday:
    Football

    Monday:
    The Voice
    NEW Drama (As with The Blacklist pick the highest testing best project available, preferably a procedural)

    Tuesday:
    NEW Comedies (Highest tested family comedies to counter program CBS/Fox’s shows at this hour)
    The Voice Results
    The Blacklist (Continue nurturing this hit before moving to a deathslot)

    Wednesday:
    New Drama or Parenthood final season
    Chicago Fire
    Chicago PD

    Thursday:
    The Space Race/Biggest Loser (Space Race will have a huge debut in the fall and TBL can air in the Spring)
    New Comedies (Space Race may be a strong lead in if it pulls viewers from Fox and ABC in the hour)
    Law and Order (If all else fails L&O:SVU will at least pull 1.5s all season)

    Friday:
    Parks/Community Final seasons
    Grimm
    New Drama/Crossbones/Dracula

  • HV

    Here are my predictions:

    VERY LIKELY CANCELATION
    Ironside
    Welcome to the Family

    LIKELY CANCELATION
    Revolution
    Sean Saves the World

    IN THE MIDDLE
    Parenthood

    LIKELY RENEWAL
    Law & Order: Special Victims Unit
    The Michael J. Fox Show
    Parks and Recreation

    VERY LIKELY RENEWAL
    The Blacklist
    Chicago Fire

  • Adam

    I don’t know why people are thinking Revolution is more likely to be canceled. At this point in time its index number puts in in the top 5 NBC shows. I would think that makes it more likely to be renewed as long as the ratings don’t drop any lower.

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