NBC: 'Ironside' Is Certain To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

October 15th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-October 13, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Welcome To The Family :oops: (canceled 10/18) 0.53
Sean Saves The World :oops: 0.67
Ironside :oops: (canceled 10/18) 0.67
Parks & Recreation :| :| :| 0.69
Parenthood :| :| :| 0.80
Revolution :| :| :| 0.91
The Michael J. Fox Show :| :| :| 0.94
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.37
The Blacklist :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.89
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

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The Cancellation Bear would like to thank NBC for not making any announcements about Ironside in the past week. That gave him time to put the show in this week's headline.

Now, if they can hold off any announcements about Sean Saves The World for another week, the bear will be even more thankful.

The bear's moved The Michael J Fox Show down to a "toss up", as was Parks & Recreation. They might stay that way until the bear sees the other sitcoms still to come this season for NBC.

The bear's biding his time making a call on Revolution, at current relative ratings levels it could go either way, particularly considering the relative success of NBC dramas vs. their total sitcom failure. Bubble Watch likes to make calls early (and has only one headline to create each week). The cancellation bear knows that this prediction race is a marathon, not a sprint, and he's got 30 more weeks (and 150 headlines, god help the bear) to go!

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Dan

    @KJ Styles – The best hope for NBC and comedies is that Parks gets a final 13 episode season and MJF gets a second season. Other then that everything else could pretty much get cancelled.

    @Stephen – I don’t think its so odd that NBC hasn’t made changes to Thursdays, maybe they want to wait just one week to see if the comedies improve or perhaps Community isn’t ready yet and they dont want to put it on the schedule. Who knows?

    @Caitlyn – I think a 13 episode final sendoff season is very possible for Parks & Rec, too early to tell though, as this could be the final year. I think its 51/49 in favor of a final season/

    Remember that all of Wed is relatively low rated

    Revolution averages 1.5
    SVU averages 1.9
    Ironside avergaes 1.1

    All of Wed is low rated for NBC, SVU has the best chance to make it to another season, Ironside is done after 13 episodes but who knows if NBC will pull the show or just let it air out its 13 episode order. My guess is that its more likely that NBC will let the show air out unless it goes under 1.0 this week.

    @HV – Agreed, Blacklist and Chicago Fire are definite renewals, MJF will get a second season so NBC doesnt cancel all of their comedies, SVU will get another season because after 14 years its still doing decently, Parenthood and Revolution are bubble shows (Though if NBC had to renew one, it would be Parenthood) but those shows renewals depend solely on their spring performance. If they tick up this spring, they will more then likely be renewed.

    Ironside, Welcome to the Family, and Sean Saves the world will all be cancelled in May. However its more the question of how soon they will be cancelled.

    WTTF will be pulled soon, and replaced by Community, when that is IDK next week? 2 weeks? November? December? we’ll see.

    Ironside will probably air all 13 ordered episodes, and be done only because NBC needs to fill the slot and bridge the gap until midseason (Like what FOX did with The Mob Doctor last fall) My guess is when Ironside is finished up, Hannibal will probably take over midseason. There’s no reason to pull Ironside when NBC can just air it through December.

    Sean Saves the World may get the “Guys With Kids” or “Ben & Kate” treatment. And by that I mean, NBC will order additional episodes only to fill a gap and because it builds on WTTF and also because they wont cancel 2 Thursday comedies this fall. Those additional Sean episodes may be moved off Thursdays come midseason and pair with Undateable maybe on Tuesdays and then maybe About a Boy and Growing up Fisher could share the 9:30 slot on Thursdays if MJF moves up to 9 and Community takes over at 8 and Parks shifts to 8:30. Either way way Sean Saves the World will be cancelled by May.

  • HV

    @Dan
    MJF, unless it tanks, I expect to be back. I put SVU and likely instead of very likely as NBC only has 6 dramas right now, and two are at very likely. Once midseason dramas come and fail, SVU will move up to very likely. I do not see Revolution returning, unless it remains very steady throughout the season and the midseason shows, including most comedies tank. Parenthood could be back, or it could be not back. I don’t see it going beyond 2014-15, but it could return and be on Fridays or have a 13 episode season or something.

  • Chris J

    @Adam

    Renewing Revolution at this point would be renewing it for 2 more seasons. It’s ratings currently don’t justify that, and it’s likely still one of NBC’s more expensive shows to produce.

  • Chris J

    @HV

    NBC didn’t renew Go On which was doing far better than Michael J Fox up to this point.

    Michael J Fox will not be renewed. The only comedies that have a chance at renewal at this point are Community and Parks, just like last year.

    I’ve been thinking Parenthood could be a good Friday show though. If that were the case it could either replace Grimm on Fridays or maybe air before it, but the two wouldn’t pair well.

  • StevenD

    If NBC keeps About a Boy and Growing up Fischer Tuesday at 9 mid season, I think it’d be better to replace GUF with MJF, as MJF is a bigger asset to NBC. This way About a Boy and MJF could be two returning comedies. The other option would be to move AAB to Thursday and put Chicago PD on Tuesday at 9, but I could easily see PD replacing Ironside

    A high risk move for NBC would also be to put Believe Wednesday at 8, and moving Revolution/SVU back an hour. I mean its a better time slot then going up against The Walking Dead

    Possible Idea:
    Monday: Same as Fall
    Tuesday:The Voice/Chicago PD/CF
    Wednesday: Believe/Revolution/SVU
    Thursday:Parks/Community/AAB/MJF/Parenthood
    Friday: Dateline/Grimm/Crossbones
    Sunday:Dateline/American Dream Builders/Crisis/Hannibal

    Any thoughts?

  • StevenD

    @Chris J

    I remember earlier in the year that NBC ordered a sequel to The Bible, which (not 100% sure on this) could air Sundays mid season next year (2015). I could see parenthood getting a 13 episode order and going on this night for a “family” oriented night.

  • Adam

    @ Chris J, Grimm had ratings that dipped down to 1.5/1.6 during it’s second season and it was still renewed for a third/fourth season. Not sure if Revolution is more expensive than Grimm or not, but if it’s ratings don’t drop lower than 1.5 it should get renewed.

  • Chris J

    @SteveD

    Believe (Touch 2.0) and Crisis (Hostages redux) are probably DOA anyway along with their terrible sounding reality lead in American Dream Builder.

    The only that that will be those dramas’ saving grace is if The Bible sequel is placed at 8pm as a lead in instead of American Dream Builder.

    Other than that NBC ordered more scripts for The Night Shift so they may be planning on airing that in Ironside’s spot in the Spring.

    Chicago PD would probably do well behind the Voice and that would help NBC establish the Chicago shows as a new franchise.

    About A Boy will probably debut at midseason as well as Community if it doesn’t air this fall. Growing Up Fisher will probably be pushed to next summer or late spring along with Undateable.

  • Drew

    Ironside has no likable characters. Underwood has had much better roles notably LA Law which was one my favorite shows of all time. The original Ironside with Raymond Burr was excellent. The remake pales by comparison.

  • Chris J

    @StevenD

    Yes NBC has The Bible sequel on tap for THIS SEASON 2014. I assume they will either air it on Sunday or maybe on they could air it Thursday 8pm and see if it lifts the night?

    If aired on Sunday it would be an ironic pairing with “Believe”. Considering the plot of Believe is anything but biblical.

  • Chris J

    @Adam

    Grimm also has the Friday factor.

    If Revolution aired on Fridays and got the ratings it’s getting now it would also be a certain renewal.

    But honestly Revolution may pair well with Grimm on Friday though. Not sure it would be worth the renewal but both shows would be compatible enough.

  • Adam

    @ Chris J, might be a smart move for NBC to put Revolution and Grimm on Fridays midseason to see how it does. Both shows target a similar audience so it makes sense to pair them up.

  • Ultima

    @Brent
    I really think NBC messed up when it got rid of Hero’s a long time ago…and has not recovered since.

    Seriously? Heroes had one of the most drastic collapses for a legitimate hit show in recent memory.

    It’s third season picked up where the second season left off, but then proceeded to drop almost 50% over the course of the season, ending up down 30% year-to-year! Then, as if that wasn’t harsh enough, it dropped another 37% the following year!

    Heroes probably would have pulled the same numbers as The Cape did the following season. Remember how awesome that did?

  • Ultima

    @Brent
    Why not bring a spinoff from Cheers, or Cosby show.

    I’m pretty sure those shows DID have spinoffs.

    A Different World is arguably the most lead-in dependent show in the history of TV. #2 for years behind The Cosby Show and then it completely face plants the moment it has to stand on its own and gets kicked out its timeslot in only two months.

    And the Cheers bar closed ages ago and we had another 11 seasons with Frasier after that. At this point, a spinoff of that show would be nothing more than the stupid attempt at the umpteenth All in the Family spinoff that had nothing in common with the original show except that it was the same house!

    Also, for all intents and purposes, the new NBC Thursday IS an attempt to bring back their old hits by featuring Michael J Fox (Family Ties) and Sean Hayes (Will & Grace). It’s doing awesome!

  • Ultima

    @HV
    MJF, unless it tanks

    Unless it tanks?! How else could you possibly describe its ratings so far? It’s already down 45% from its modest start in only two weeks!

  • brian

    If I programmed NBC, this is what I’d do:

    Monday
    Voice/Black List (Don’t Break what isn’t broken)

    Tuesday
    Biggest Loser/Voice/Chicago Fire (same here)

    Wednesday
    Parks and Rec/About a Boy/Revolution/Law and Order SVU

    Thursday
    American Dream Builders/Undateable/Michael J. Fox/Parenthood

    Friday
    Dateline/Grimm/Dracula

    Sunday
    Football

    Come Spring:

    Monday:
    The Voice/Blacklist

    Tuesday:
    Growing Up Fischer/New Sitcom/The Voice/Chicago Fire

    Wednesday:
    Community/About a Boy/Revolution/Law and Order SVU

    Thursday:
    Celebrity Apprentice/Undateable/Michael J Fox/Chicago PD

    Friday:
    Dateline/Grimm/Crossbones

    Sunday:
    Dateline/Believe/Crisis/The Night Shift

    Sean Saves the World would be spackle. Welcome to the Family and Ironside would probably burn off on Saturdays.

  • Dan

    @Ultima – I don’t think The Michael J FOX show tanked, I think NBC’s entire Thursday lineup tanked.

    If no show in the lineup gets above a 1.2, then the night has a problem.

    MJF did build on Sean Saves the World which built on WTTF, although the numbers are still garbage.

    @Chris J – I agree, but NBC has to look at Revolution’s spring ratings over fall, if they improve then the show has a shot. If they don;t and NBC’s other shows do relatively better than Revolution is dead. It would be the first time in a while that a show was renewed with 2 full seasons and didn;t get a third although that might happen with ABC’s The Neighbors, FOX’s The Mindy Project, and CW’s Beauty and the Beast.

    We have to wonder if NBC plans on doing what they did last year and air Blacklist’s second half just with The Voice and air a new drama 10pm Mondays. Jan-March.

    Also right now they have Growing Up Fisher and About a Boy on Tuesdays but I think NBC would do better if they moved Sean Saves the World and Undatebale to that slot and timeshare AAB and GUF in the Thursday 9:30 slot, move MJF to 9 and have Community and Parks air at 8 and 8:30.

    NBC is a mess without the Voice but my guess is that they will do some scheduling this Winter and shift somethings around and come up with a new strategy by May for next season.

  • Chris J

    @Dan

    NBC has the Olympics so they may just air repeats through January. No reason to have new programming tank through the Winter.

    The Blacklist can take a hiatus and likely return better than Revolution because #1 it’s a procedural #2 the entire network is going to have the Olympic boost.

    As far as Revolution, NBC won’t renew it with these ratings. Last year they proved they’re willing to cut sophomore shows that weren’t performing (Up All Night and Whitney). With Revolution’s serialized nature if people continue to lose interest ratings are simply going to continue to decline even through the Spring.

    It’s safe to assume at this point it’s done

    Also who cares if MJFS is building off its dead lead in. Even NBC has a threshold by which they’re going to consider comedies for renewal. Even though Go On was their top rated renewable comedy last year NBC killed it because it’s ratings fell below an accepted number and were still in decline by the end.

    No way MJFS grows through the year without loads more ad dollars thrown in.

    At a high of 1.2 the entire comedy lineup will probably get axed. Parks will be lucky to get a spackle order next season.

  • alvar

    My suggestion for NBC – have all the new programs airing on Mondays and Tuesdays in the post Voice slots and have established dramas on Wednesdays and Thursdays. Shows like The Biggest Loser and Chicago Fire are proven performers and should not be airing on the same night as The Voice. I would even be considering bringing Grimm and Dracula forward to Thursdays and swapping the comedies for Fridays given the disastrous Thursday ratings.

  • Dan

    @Chris J – Fair enough, I guess we’re both in agreement that if Revolution doesn’t improve in the spring it will be cancelled. But NBC probably won’t cut the episode order. They never cut Up All Night and Whitney’s orders BTW. Both had a 13 episode second season. Whitney was extended to 16 episodes while Up All Night also got extended to 16 episodes but the format was changed, Christina Applegate quit the show and those episodes were never produced.

    I was still very surprised at the Go On cancellation last May. Sure its ratings sucked but every show besides the ending Office’s ratings were bad. Parks was OK and Community was somewhat respectable. However NBC took a bad gamble on basically starting Thursday nights fresh and completely from scratch. Even if they do cancel all their comedies this season they will just have the same problem next season when they start from scratch again and the shows premiere even lower.

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